TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13087575
Played Sep 7Finished
Jakub Kycelt
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1210121014161012119
Erik Mares
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:25 and never touched — 63.3% is still 63.3%
Graded at full timeErik Mares to win
63.3%
63.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJakub Kycelt above · Erik Mares below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 14-16
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 116 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Erik Mares at 63.3%
116 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Kycelt 9–13 Erik Mares Jakub Kycelt has won 9 of their 22 meetings.
They have already met 2 times today · last one 2h before this match
Mares beat Kycelt 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:25What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Mares
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-13 in 22
Mares
Wrong
gap of 4 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kycelt 1806 vs Mares 1899
Mares
Wrong
both rated, 92 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kycelt 60% vs Mares 80%
Mares
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kycelt 60% vs Mares 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kycelt +1 · Mares +3
Mares
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Mares) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mares form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKycelt 2.38 / Mares 1.53
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Mares)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13087575
Kycelt2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog45% won 56 of 125
Down 0–1, comes back25% 16 of 65
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 33
Mares1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite57% won 145 of 253
Up 2–0, closes it87% 90 of 104
Up 1–0, closes it72% 118 of 165
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKycelt3wins
AwayMares7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMares leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKyceltn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayMares77.8%7 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kycelt1Mares9n = 10Mares took 9 of 10
S2Kycelt4Mares6n = 10Mares took 6 of 10
S3Kycelt3Mares7n = 10Mares took 7 of 10
S4Kycelt2Mares3n = 5Mares took 3 of 5
S5Kycelt2Mares1n = 3Kycelt took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricKyceltMaresK − MBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match32.241.4−9.2per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKyceltMaresBasisWin rate · lifetime159 / 319 vs 599 / 119149.8%50.3%159 / 319 vs 599 / 1191Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.939.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaresKycelt 2.38/Mares 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.4%
Mares · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kycelt won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 17:29J. Kycelt—4750E. Mares—1111113
WSep 7 · 15:30J. Kycelt—591211193E. Mares—1111109172
LSep 2 · 01:30J. Kycelt—913691E. Mares—111111113
WAug 31 · 15:00J. Kycelt—61313123E. Mares—111111101
LAug 1 · 20:58J. Kycelt—91111782E. Mares—116711113
LAug 1 · 20:30J. Kycelt—3650E. Mares—1111113
LAug 1 · 17:29J. Kycelt—5570E. Mares—1111113
WAug 1 · 15:00J. Kycelt—151395143E. Mares—13111111122
LJul 30 · 22:30J. Kycelt—4660E. Mares—1111113
LJun 29 · 20:30J. Kycelt—7760E. Mares—1111113
J. Kycelt10
WSep 7 · 18:00P. Bradach1.803660J. Kycelt1.911111113LSep 7 · 17:29E. Mares1.221111113J. Kycelt4.004750LSep 7 · 16:30T. Postelt1.7381111123J. Kycelt2.001199101WSep 7 · 15:30J. Kycelt2.50591211193E. Mares1.501111109172WSep 7 · 14:30M. Zahradka1.91511991J. Kycelt1.8011611113LSep 2 · 21:28J. Kycelt1.50116871M. Huk2.5041111113LSep 2 · 20:00J. Kycelt1.916840T. Postelt1.801111113WSep 2 · 19:30J. Ruzicka2.509750J. Kycelt1.501111113WSep 2 · 18:00J. Kycelt1.531111113M. Huk2.388780WSep 2 · 03:00L. Zeman1.73891251J. Kycelt2.00111110113
E. Mares10
WSep 7 · 18:30E. Mares1.2511119113M. Zahradka3.75841151WSep 7 · 17:29E. Mares1.221111113J. Kycelt4.004750WSep 7 · 16:00E. Mares1.251111113M. Zahradka3.753870LSep 7 · 15:30J. Kycelt2.50591211193E. Mares1.501111109172WSep 7 · 14:00E. Mares1.83131111113T. Postelt1.83157561LSep 6 · 09:00E. Mares1.579111111102O. Kolisnyk2.25111369123WSep 6 · 08:00E. Mares1.83114116113J. Vales1.8351151152WSep 6 · 07:30O. Kolisnyk2.5089111172E. Mares1.50111169113LSep 6 · 06:00E. Mares1.83911117102T. Postelt1.83113911123LSep 5 · 13:00E. Mares1.731111771J. Zajicek2.0061311113
Upcoming Matches
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E. Mares
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