TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13087568
Played Sep 7Finished
Erik Mares
Home
1.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118114911115––
Michal Zahradka
Away
3.75
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:26 and never touched — 75.4% is still 75.4%
Graded at full timeErik Mares to win
75.4%
75.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingErik Mares above · Michal Zahradka below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 70 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Erik Mares at 75.4%
70 points played in total.
H2H Erik Mares 26–16 Michal Zahradka Michal Zahradka has won 16 of their 42 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Mares beat Zahradka 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:26What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Mares
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
26-16 in 42
Mares
Correct
gap of 10 in 42, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mares 1876 vs Zahradka 1839
Mares
Correct
both rated, 38 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mares 60% vs Zahradka 40%
Mares
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mares 50% vs Zahradka 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mares +2 · Zahradka -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Mares)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zahradka form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (27%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMares 1.25 / Zahradka 3.75
Signal prob.75% / 25%
Edge (Mares)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13087568
Mares1.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite57% won 145 of 253
Up 2–0, closes it87% 90 of 104
Up 1–0, closes it72% 118 of 165
Zahradka3.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 81 of 202
Down 0–1, comes back18% 18 of 98
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 57
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMares8wins
AwayZahradka2wins
1 of 10 to a deciderMares leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMares100%7 of 7
AwayZahradka66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mares7Zahradka3n = 10Mares took 7 of 10
S2Mares8Zahradka2n = 10Mares took 8 of 10
S3Mares8Zahradka2n = 10Mares took 8 of 10
S4Mares2Zahradka3n = 5Zahradka took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaresZahradkaM − ZBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.427.3+10.1per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaresZahradkaBasisWin rate · lifetime598 / 1190 vs 439 / 90050.3%48.8%598 / 1190 vs 439 / 900Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.938.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaresMares 1.25/Zahradka 3.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.4%
Mares · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Mares won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 3 · 12:00E. Mares—916891M. Zahradka—111411113
WAug 20 · 11:30E. Mares—1111113M. Zahradka—1460
WAug 12 · 13:00E. Mares—11511113M. Zahradka—011771
WAug 12 · 10:30E. Mares—1111113M. Zahradka—9830
LAug 12 · 07:30E. Mares—981191M. Zahradka—11116113
WMay 21 · 10:00E. Mares—1111113M. Zahradka—8980
WMay 18 · 09:00E. Mares—71111113M. Zahradka—113481
WMay 18 · 07:30E. Mares—1211113M. Zahradka—10960
WMay 8 · 24:00E. Mares—1111810113M. Zahradka—36111272
WMay 5 · 13:28E. Mares—1111113M. Zahradka—5470
E. Mares10
LSep 7 · 19:00J. Kycelt2.3812121410113E. Mares1.531010161292WSep 7 · 17:29E. Mares1.221111113J. Kycelt4.004750WSep 7 · 16:00E. Mares1.251111113M. Zahradka3.753870LSep 7 · 15:30J. Kycelt2.50591211193E. Mares1.501111109172WSep 7 · 14:00E. Mares1.83131111113T. Postelt1.83157561LSep 6 · 09:00E. Mares1.579111111102O. Kolisnyk2.25111369123WSep 6 · 08:00E. Mares1.83114116113J. Vales1.8351151152WSep 6 · 07:30O. Kolisnyk2.5089111172E. Mares1.50111169113LSep 6 · 06:00E. Mares1.83911117102T. Postelt1.83113911123LSep 5 · 13:00E. Mares1.731111771J. Zajicek2.0061311113
M. Zahradka10
WSep 7 · 19:30M. Zahradka1.57711611113P. Bradach2.2511311772LSep 7 · 16:59M. Zahradka1.83716111182T. Postelt1.83111878113LSep 7 · 16:00E. Mares1.251111113M. Zahradka3.753870WSep 7 · 15:00T. Postelt1.8035100M. Zahradka1.911111123LSep 7 · 14:30M. Zahradka1.91511991J. Kycelt1.8011611113WSep 5 · 21:28M. Zahradka1.731111113J. Kanera2.006450LSep 5 · 20:00J. Jr1.611112157133M. Zahradka2.209141311112WSep 5 · 19:00J. Kanera2.104121151M. Zahradka1.671114793WSep 5 · 18:30M. Zahradka1.831111188113O. Kolisnyk1.8348201182LSep 3 · 13:29M. Zahradka1.6110131081M. Huk2.20121112113
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