TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13077848
Played Sep 5Finished
Jan Mecl Jr
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
119121415137111311
Michal Zahradka
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:47 and never touched — 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeJan Mecl Jr to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Mecl Jr above · Michal Zahradka below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 15-13
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 13-11
Point 116 set 5, 13-11 — our read held Jan Mecl Jr at 58.1%
116 points played in total.
H2H Jan Mecl Jr 40–24 Michal Zahradka Michal Zahradka has won 24 of their 64 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:47What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Jr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
40-24 in 64
Jr
Correct
gap of 16 in 64, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jr 1750 vs Zahradka 1874
Zahradka
Wrong
both rated, 123 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 40% vs Zahradka 80%
Zahradka
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 30% vs Zahradka 90%
Zahradka
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr +1 · Zahradka +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Jr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zahradka form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 1.61 / Zahradka 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Jr)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13077848
Jr1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 129 of 222
Up 2–0, closes it94% 62 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it76% 93 of 122
Zahradka2.20
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog40% won 81 of 202
Down 0–1, comes back18% 18 of 98
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 58
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJr6wins
AwayZahradka4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderJr leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJr83.3%5 of 6
AwayZahradka75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jr6Zahradka4n = 10Jr took 6 of 10
S2Jr5Zahradka5n = 10split evenly
S3Jr4Zahradka6n = 10Zahradka took 6 of 10
S4Jr4Zahradka3n = 7Jr took 4 of 7
S5Jr2Zahradka1n = 3Jr took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricJrZahradkaJ − ZBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.537.2−0.7per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrZahradkaBasisWin rate · lifetime401 / 772 vs 437 / 89451.9%48.9%401 / 772 vs 437 / 894Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.838.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JrJr 1.61/Zahradka 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.1%
Jr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 8 · 16:00J. Jr—11133133M. Zahradka—41111111
LAug 2 · 03:28J. Jr—8960M. Zahradka—1111113
WAug 2 · 02:00J. Jr—41111113M. Zahradka—119861
LJul 15 · 08:30J. Jr—9890M. Zahradka—1111113
WJul 14 · 08:30J. Jr—11117113M. Zahradka—671181
WJul 13 · 13:00J. Jr—1111153M. Zahradka—68130
WJul 13 · 10:00J. Jr—121184113M. Zahradka—105111192
WJul 9 · 20:00J. Jr—113411123M. Zahradka—511113102
LJul 8 · 15:30J. Jr—681151M. Zahradka—11116113
LJul 7 · 12:00J. Jr—111111752M. Zahradka—913711113
J. Jr10
WSep 5 · 20:58J. Jr1.5711119113O. Kolisnyk2.25691181WSep 5 · 19:30O. Kolisnyk2.256490J. Jr1.571111113LSep 5 · 18:00J. Jr1.53691291J. Kanera2.38111110113LAug 27 · 16:58J. Jr1.6111581182J. Kanera2.20911114113WAug 27 · 16:30J. Kanera2.2010950J. Jr1.611211113LAug 27 · 15:30J. Jr2.38481191E. Mares1.5311117113LAug 27 · 14:30V. Koubek1.40111015113J. Jr2.754121371LAug 27 · 13:00J. Jr1.61114891M. Kratochvil2.2071111113LAug 27 · 12:00J. Jr2.203870E. Mares1.611111113WAug 27 · 11:30M. Kratochvil1.737990J. Jr2.001111113
M. Zahradka10
WSep 5 · 21:28M. Zahradka1.731111113J. Kanera2.006450WSep 5 · 19:00J. Kanera2.104121151M. Zahradka1.671114793WSep 5 · 18:30M. Zahradka1.831111188113O. Kolisnyk1.8348201182LSep 3 · 13:29M. Zahradka1.6110131081M. Huk2.20121112113WSep 3 · 12:00E. Mares1.22916891M. Zahradka4.00111411113WSep 3 · 11:00M. Huk1.91711561M. Zahradka1.8011911113WSep 3 · 10:30M. Zahradka1.6191111113J. Ruzicka2.20116361WSep 3 · 09:28M. Zahradka1.801111113M. Huk1.915750WSep 3 · 08:00M. Zahradka1.73511114123M. Huk2.00118711102WSep 3 · 07:30J. Ruzicka2.105480M. Zahradka1.671111113
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