TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13018119
Played Aug 27Finished
Vojtech Koubek
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11410121513117––
Jan Mecl Jr
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:38 and never touched — 54.7% is still 54.7%
Graded at full timeVojtech Koubek to win
54.7%
54.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVojtech Koubek above · Jan Mecl Jr below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 15-13
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 83 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Vojtech Koubek at 54.7%
83 points played in total.
H2H Vojtech Koubek 8–3 Jan Mecl Jr Jan Mecl Jr has won 3 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:38What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Koubek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-3 in 11
Koubek
Correct
gap of 5 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Koubek 1790 vs Jr 1847
Jr
Wrong
both rated, 58 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Koubek 20% vs Jr 40%
Jr
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Koubek 40% vs Jr 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Koubek -4 · Jr -2
Koubek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Koubek) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Koubek form (20%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKoubek 1.40 / Jr 2.75
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Koubek)-1.2pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13018119
Koubek1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite52% won 33 of 63
Up 2–0, closes it100% 16 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it80% 24 of 30
Jr2.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 29 of 72
Down 0–1, comes back21% 9 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back13% 3 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKoubek7wins
AwayJr3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKoubek leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKoubek100%3 of 3
AwayJr42.9%3 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Koubek3Jr7n = 10Jr took 7 of 10
S2Koubek8Jr2n = 10Koubek took 8 of 10
S3Koubek5Jr5n = 10split evenly
S4Koubek6Jr1n = 7Koubek took 6 of 7
S5Koubek2Jr1n = 3Koubek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKoubekJrK − JBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.734.4+4.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKoubekJrBasisWin rate · lifetime179 / 356 vs 412 / 78250.3%52.7%179 / 356 vs 412 / 782Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.539.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KoubekKoubek 1.40/Jr 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.1%
Koubek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Koubek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJan 29 · 20:00V. Koubek—1111103J. Jr—4860
WJan 14 · 16:00V. Koubek—41111113J. Jr—115921
WJan 2 · 10:00V. Koubek—1111113J. Jr—9960
LJan 2 · 07:30V. Koubek—712111162J. Jr—111496113
WDec 30 · 19:30V. Koubek—81111113J. Jr—115881
WJul 13 · 17:30V. Koubek—11118113J. Jr—941171
LJul 13 · 16:00V. Koubek—1111671J. Jr—13811113
WJun 24 · 16:00V. Koubek—2111111113J. Jr—11913772
LMay 7 · 14:30V. Koubek—9990J. Jr—1111113
WFeb 27 · 15:30V. Koubek—711811113J. Jr—11511652
V. Koubek10
WSep 1 · 17:30V. Koubek1.6861111123E. Mares1.941188101LSep 1 · 16:00M. Parzhizek1.337111110113V. Koubek3.2511641292WSep 1 · 15:00E. Mares2.101051181V. Koubek1.6712119113WSep 1 · 14:28V. Koubek2.6311116113J. Medek1.44681141WAug 31 · 17:30E. Mares2.104117101V. Koubek1.6511911123WAug 31 · 16:00V. Koubek1.4011115113J. Kycelt2.75141171WAug 31 · 15:30J. Nesnera2.3813670V. Koubek1.531511113LAug 31 · 14:00V. Koubek1.736740E. Mares2.001111113WAug 27 · 17:28V. Koubek1.6711139113E. Mares2.107111191WAug 27 · 16:00E. Mares1.7381111101V. Koubek2.0011136123
J. Jr10
WSep 5 · 20:58J. Jr1.5711119113O. Kolisnyk2.25691181WSep 5 · 20:00J. Jr1.611112157133M. Zahradka2.209141311112WSep 5 · 19:30O. Kolisnyk2.256490J. Jr1.571111113LSep 5 · 18:00J. Jr1.53691291J. Kanera2.38111110113LAug 27 · 16:58J. Jr1.6111581182J. Kanera2.20911114113WAug 27 · 16:30J. Kanera2.2010950J. Jr1.611211113LAug 27 · 15:30J. Jr2.38481191E. Mares1.5311117113LAug 27 · 13:00J. Jr1.61114891M. Kratochvil2.2071111113LAug 27 · 12:00J. Jr2.203870E. Mares1.611111113WAug 27 · 11:30M. Kratochvil1.737990J. Jr2.001111113
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