TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13046543
Played Aug 31Finished
Vojtech Koubek
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611711411––––
Erik Mares
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:38 and never touched — 71.5% is still 71.5%
Graded at full timeVojtech Koubek to win
71.5%
71.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingVojtech Koubek above · Erik Mares below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 50 set 3, 4-11 — our read held Vojtech Koubek at 71.5%
50 points played in total.
H2H Vojtech Koubek 48–25 Erik Mares Erik Mares has won 25 of their 73 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:38What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Koubek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
48-25 in 73
Koubek
Wrong
gap of 23 in 73, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Koubek 1852 vs Mares 1846
Koubek
Wrong
both rated, 6 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Koubek 80% vs Mares 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Koubek 50% vs Mares 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Koubek +4 · Mares +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Koubek) · live re-read · sealed at 72% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mares form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKoubek 1.73 / Mares 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Koubek)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13046543
Koubek1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite53% won 32 of 61
Up 2–0, closes it100% 16 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it79% 23 of 29
Mares2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 96 of 214
Down 0–1, comes back26% 28 of 109
Down 0–2, comes back13% 8 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKoubek5wins
AwayMares5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKoubek83.3%5 of 6
AwayMares100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Koubek6Mares4n = 10Koubek took 6 of 10
S2Koubek5Mares5n = 10split evenly
S3Koubek3Mares7n = 10Mares took 7 of 10
S4Koubek4Mares1n = 5Koubek took 4 of 5
S5Koubek1Mares2n = 3Mares took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKoubekMaresK − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match34.138.2−4.1per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKoubekMaresBasisWin rate · lifetime183 / 360 vs 586 / 116550.8%50.3%183 / 360 vs 586 / 1165Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.539.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KoubekKoubek 1.73/Mares 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.9%
Koubek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Mares won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 27 · 17:28V. Koubek—11139113E. Mares—7111191
WAug 27 · 16:00V. Koubek—11136123E. Mares—81111101
WAug 20 · 14:30V. Koubek—1115113E. Mares—91390
LAug 18 · 17:30V. Koubek—71161132E. Mares—117119113
LAug 18 · 15:30V. Koubek—8680E. Mares—1111113
WAug 10 · 14:30V. Koubek—1116113E. Mares—81450
LAug 6 · 16:58V. Koubek—4640E. Mares—1111113
WAug 6 · 15:00V. Koubek—125711113E. Mares—101111682
LJun 30 · 14:30V. Koubek—26100E. Mares—1111123
LMay 31 · 18:30V. Koubek—11913362E. Mares—7111111113
V. Koubek10
WSep 1 · 17:30V. Koubek1.6861111123E. Mares1.941188101LSep 1 · 16:00M. Parzhizek1.337111110113V. Koubek3.2511641292WSep 1 · 15:00E. Mares2.101051181V. Koubek1.6712119113WSep 1 · 14:28V. Koubek2.6311116113J. Medek1.44681141WAug 31 · 17:30E. Mares2.104117101V. Koubek1.6511911123WAug 31 · 16:00V. Koubek1.4011115113J. Kycelt2.75141171WAug 31 · 15:30J. Nesnera2.3813670V. Koubek1.531511113WAug 27 · 17:28V. Koubek1.6711139113E. Mares2.107111191WAug 27 · 16:00E. Mares1.7381111101V. Koubek2.0011136123WAug 27 · 15:00J. Kanera2.506390V. Koubek1.501111113
E. Mares10
LSep 6 · 09:00E. Mares1.579111111102O. Kolisnyk2.25111369123WSep 6 · 08:00E. Mares1.83114116113J. Vales1.8351151152WSep 6 · 07:30O. Kolisnyk2.5089111172E. Mares1.50111169113LSep 6 · 06:00E. Mares1.83911117102T. Postelt1.83113911123LSep 5 · 13:00E. Mares1.731111771J. Zajicek2.0061311113LSep 1 · 17:30V. Koubek1.6861111123E. Mares1.941188101LSep 1 · 15:00E. Mares2.101051181V. Koubek1.6712119113LAug 31 · 17:30E. Mares2.104117101V. Koubek1.6511911123LAug 27 · 17:28V. Koubek1.6711139113E. Mares2.107111191LAug 27 · 16:00E. Mares1.7381111101V. Koubek2.0011136123
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