TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13048075
Played Aug 31Finished
Jiri Nesnera
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1315611711––––
Vojtech Koubek
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:16 and never touched — 61.2% is still 61.2%
Graded at full timeVojtech Koubek to win
61.2%
61.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Nesnera above · Vojtech Koubek below
Set 1 · 13-15
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 63 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Vojtech Koubek at 61.2%
63 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Nesnera 5–9 Vojtech Koubek Jiri Nesnera has won 5 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 16:16What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Koubek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-9 in 14
Koubek
Correct
gap of 4 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nesnera 1784 vs Koubek 1867
Koubek
Correct
both rated, 83 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nesnera 40% vs Koubek 80%
Koubek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nesnera 50% vs Koubek 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Nesnera +1 · Koubek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Koubek) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Koubek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNesnera 2.38 / Koubek 1.53
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Koubek)+3.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13048075
Nesnera2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 14 of 34
Down 0–1, comes back24% 5 of 21
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 9
Koubek1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite53% won 32 of 61
Up 2–0, closes it100% 16 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it79% 23 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNesnera4wins
AwayKoubek6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKoubek leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNesnera66.7%4 of 6
AwayKoubek100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nesnera6Koubek4n = 10Nesnera took 6 of 10
S2Nesnera3Koubek7n = 10Koubek took 7 of 10
S3Nesnera2Koubek8n = 10Koubek took 8 of 10
S4Nesnera4Koubek3n = 7Nesnera took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricNesneraKoubekN − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.640.1−3.5per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNesneraKoubekBasisWin rate · lifetime85 / 163 vs 186 / 36452.2%51.1%85 / 163 vs 186 / 364Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.636.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KoubekNesnera 2.38/Koubek 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64%
Koubek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Koubek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 31 · 15:30J. Nesnera—13670V. Koubek—1511113
WAug 6 · 14:30J. Nesnera—11118143V. Koubek—5211121
WJun 30 · 17:00J. Nesnera—111012153V. Koubek—61210131
LJun 30 · 16:30J. Nesnera—813451V. Koubek—111111113
LMay 4 · 17:28J. Nesnera—81240V. Koubek—1114113
LMay 4 · 15:30J. Nesnera—1251761V. Koubek—101119113
WApr 27 · 17:04J. Nesnera—11713113V. Koubek—6111181
WApr 27 · 14:30J. Nesnera—1112211113V. Koubek—910111372
LApr 20 · 15:00J. Nesnera—11981172V. Koubek—511115113
LJan 29 · 17:00J. Nesnera—7930V. Koubek—1111113
J. Nesnera10
LAug 31 · 17:00J. Kycelt1.8071212133J. Nesnera1.91111010111LAug 31 · 16:30E. Mares1.401111113J. Nesnera2.754970WAug 31 · 14:30J. Kycelt1.73761141J. Nesnera2.0011117113LAug 17 · 16:59E. Mares1.401113113J. Nesnera2.7571180WAug 17 · 16:00E. Mares1.301189101J. Nesnera3.4011111123LAug 17 · 15:00O. Kolisnyk3.001311123J. Nesnera1.36116100LAug 17 · 14:30J. Nesnera1.73118714122T. Postelt2.009111112143LAug 11 · 17:30E. Mares1.451111113J. Nesnera2.603870WAug 11 · 16:00J. Nesnera1.731121011113T. Postelt2.0061112862WAug 11 · 15:30M. Kratochvil1.83111011632J. Nesnera1.83912411113
V. Koubek10
WSep 1 · 17:30V. Koubek1.6861111123E. Mares1.941188101LSep 1 · 16:00M. Parzhizek1.337111110113V. Koubek3.2511641292WSep 1 · 15:00E. Mares2.101051181V. Koubek1.6712119113WSep 1 · 14:28V. Koubek2.6311116113J. Medek1.44681141WAug 31 · 17:30E. Mares2.104117101V. Koubek1.6511911123WAug 31 · 16:00V. Koubek1.4011115113J. Kycelt2.75141171LAug 31 · 14:00V. Koubek1.736740E. Mares2.001111113WAug 27 · 17:28V. Koubek1.6711139113E. Mares2.107111191WAug 27 · 16:00E. Mares1.7381111101V. Koubek2.0011136123WAug 27 · 15:00J. Kanera2.506390V. Koubek1.501111113
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.