TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12442847
Played Aug 17Finished
Jiri Nesnera
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11981171114121214
Tomas Postelt
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:40 and never touched — 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeJiri Nesnera to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJiri Nesnera above · Tomas Postelt below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 14-12
Set 5 · 12-14
Point 109 set 5, 12-14 — our read held Jiri Nesnera at 57.0%
109 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Nesnera 11–10 Tomas Postelt Tomas Postelt has won 10 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:40What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Nesnera
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-10 in 21
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nesnera 1823 vs Postelt 1805
Nesnera
Wrong
both rated, 18 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nesnera 60% vs Postelt 20%
Nesnera
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nesnera 50% vs Postelt 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Nesnera -1 · Postelt -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Nesnera) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Postelt form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNesnera 1.73 / Postelt 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Nesnera)+0.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12442847
Nesnera1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite70% won 21 of 30
Up 2–0, closes it100% 9 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it76% 16 of 21
Postelt2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 75 of 165
Down 0–1, comes back30% 28 of 93
Down 0–2, comes back13% 6 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNesnera8wins
AwayPostelt2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderNesnera leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNesnera100%6 of 6
AwayPostelt50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nesnera6Postelt4n = 10Nesnera took 6 of 10
S2Nesnera7Postelt3n = 10Nesnera took 7 of 10
S3Nesnera7Postelt3n = 10Nesnera took 7 of 10
S4Nesnera5Postelt3n = 8Nesnera took 5 of 8
S5Nesnera2Postelt1n = 3Nesnera took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNesneraPosteltN − PBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.635.9+3.7per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNesneraPosteltBasisWin rate · lifetime86 / 159 vs 328 / 71054.1%46.2%86 / 159 vs 328 / 710Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.839.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NesneraNesnera 1.73/Postelt 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Nesnera · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Postelt won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 11 · 16:00J. Nesnera—1121011113T. Postelt—61112862
WJun 15 · 14:30J. Nesnera—111111123T. Postelt—1368101
WJun 9 · 17:30J. Nesnera—1111113T. Postelt—3870
LJun 9 · 16:00J. Nesnera—31111792T. Postelt—119911113
WMay 21 · 15:00J. Nesnera—1111113T. Postelt—6890
WMay 4 · 14:00J. Nesnera—311119113T. Postelt—11861162
WApr 8 · 17:30J. Nesnera—111111113T. Postelt—713871
WApr 8 · 14:00J. Nesnera—11111113T. Postelt—781191
LDec 3 · 15:30J. Nesnera—5111081T. Postelt—11612113
WNov 10 · 16:30J. Nesnera—11911113T. Postelt—711981
J. Nesnera10
LAug 31 · 17:00J. Kycelt1.8071212133J. Nesnera1.91111010111LAug 31 · 16:30E. Mares1.401111113J. Nesnera2.754970LAug 31 · 15:30J. Nesnera2.3813670V. Koubek1.531511113WAug 31 · 14:30J. Kycelt1.73761141J. Nesnera2.0011117113LAug 17 · 16:59E. Mares1.401113113J. Nesnera2.7571180WAug 17 · 16:00E. Mares1.301189101J. Nesnera3.4011111123LAug 17 · 15:00O. Kolisnyk3.001311123J. Nesnera1.36116100LAug 11 · 17:30E. Mares1.451111113J. Nesnera2.603870WAug 11 · 16:00J. Nesnera1.731121011113T. Postelt2.0061112862WAug 11 · 15:30M. Kratochvil1.83111011632J. Nesnera1.83912411113
T. Postelt10
LSep 6 · 09:30J. Vales1.43111114113T. Postelt2.608131271WSep 6 · 08:30T. Postelt1.6111129113O. Kolisnyk2.205101181LSep 6 · 07:00T. Postelt2.7511117872J. Vales1.40981111113WSep 6 · 06:00E. Mares1.83911117102T. Postelt1.83113911123WSep 2 · 20:58T. Postelt1.731111153J. Ruzicka2.0079130WSep 2 · 20:00J. Kycelt1.916840T. Postelt1.801111113LSep 2 · 19:00M. Huk2.1061112113T. Postelt1.671171091LSep 2 · 18:30T. Postelt1.671211131192J. Ruzicka2.10149157113WSep 1 · 17:30J. Kycelt1.85116781T. Postelt1.8581111113LAug 11 · 16:00J. Nesnera1.731121011113T. Postelt2.0061112862
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