TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12444089
Played Aug 17Finished
Erik Mares
Home
1.30
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1118119111012––
Jiri Nesnera
Away
3.40
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:13 and never touched — 68.3% is still 68.3%
Graded at full timeErik Mares to win
68.3%
68.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingErik Mares above · Jiri Nesnera below
Set 1 · 11-1
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 73 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Erik Mares at 68.3%
73 points played in total.
H2H Erik Mares 5–3 Jiri Nesnera Jiri Nesnera has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:13What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Mares
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-3 in 8
Mares
Wrong
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mares 1887 vs Nesnera 1796
Mares
Wrong
both rated, 90 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mares 40% vs Nesnera 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mares 60% vs Nesnera 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mares -1 · Nesnera -3
Nesnera
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% — Strong (leans Mares) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nesnera form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMares 1.30 / Nesnera 3.40
Signal prob.74% / 26%
Edge (Mares)+2.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12444089
Mares1.30
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 121 of 203
Up 2–0, closes it87% 75 of 86
Up 1–0, closes it73% 97 of 133
Nesnera3.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 13 of 32
Down 0–1, comes back21% 4 of 19
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeMares5wins
AwayNesnera3wins
Mares leads 5–3.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMares66.7%4 of 6
AwayNesneran = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mares6Nesnera2n = 8Mares took 6 of 8
S2Mares5Nesnera3n = 8Mares took 5 of 8
S3Mares3Nesnera5n = 8Nesnera took 5 of 8
S4Mares4Nesnera3n = 7Mares took 4 of 7
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home450%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away338%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricMaresNesneraM − NBasisWins53+2in 8 meetingsFirst set62+4of 8Avg pointsper match38.633.0+5.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaresNesneraBasisWin rate · lifetime575 / 1140 vs 86 / 16150.4%53.4%575 / 1140 vs 86 / 161Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.038.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaresMares 1.30/Nesnera 3.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
74.3%
Mares · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Nesnera won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WAug 11 · 14:00E. Mares—11811113J. Nesnera—711551
LAug 6 · 16:30E. Mares—1279111J. Nesnera—101111133
WJun 30 · 15:00E. Mares—111111113J. Nesnera—781391
LJan 1 · 10:30E. Mares—1111791J. Nesnera—13911113
WJan 1 · 07:30E. Mares—81211113J. Nesnera—1110641
WAug 16 · 08:00E. Mares—1111113J. Nesnera—2760
LJul 26 · 09:30E. Mares—115891J. Nesnera—41111113
WJul 26 · 08:00E. Mares—11116113J. Nesnera—481141
E. Mares10
LSep 6 · 09:00E. Mares1.579111111102O. Kolisnyk2.25111369123WSep 6 · 08:00E. Mares1.83114116113J. Vales1.8351151152WSep 6 · 07:30O. Kolisnyk2.5089111172E. Mares1.50111169113LSep 6 · 06:00E. Mares1.83911117102T. Postelt1.83113911123LSep 5 · 13:00E. Mares1.731111771J. Zajicek2.0061311113LSep 5 · 12:00E. Mares1.83119113132J. Vales1.83611511153WSep 5 · 11:30J. Zajicek1.73911681E. Mares2.0011711113LSep 5 · 10:00E. Mares2.259620J. Medek1.571111113LSep 4 · 21:30E. Mares2.00311111052J. Medek1.73119912113WSep 4 · 20:00E. Mares1.8011813113J. Vales1.912111171
J. Nesnera10
LAug 31 · 17:00J. Kycelt1.8071212133J. Nesnera1.91111010111LAug 31 · 16:30E. Mares1.401111113J. Nesnera2.754970LAug 31 · 15:30J. Nesnera2.3813670V. Koubek1.531511113WAug 31 · 14:30J. Kycelt1.73761141J. Nesnera2.0011117113LAug 17 · 16:59E. Mares1.401113113J. Nesnera2.7571180LAug 17 · 15:00O. Kolisnyk3.001311123J. Nesnera1.36116100LAug 17 · 14:30J. Nesnera1.73118714122T. Postelt2.009111112143LAug 11 · 17:30E. Mares1.451111113J. Nesnera2.603870WAug 11 · 16:00J. Nesnera1.731121011113T. Postelt2.0061112862WAug 11 · 15:30M. Kratochvil1.83111011632J. Nesnera1.83912411113
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