TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13053762
Played Aug 31Finished
Jakub Kycelt
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
711121012101311––
Jiri Nesnera
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:55 and never touched — 59.0% is still 59.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Kycelt to win
59.0%
59.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Kycelt above · Jiri Nesnera below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 13-11
Point 86 set 4, 13-11 — our read held Jakub Kycelt at 59.0%
86 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Kycelt 4–1 Jiri Nesnera Jiri Nesnera has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 16:55What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kycelt
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Kycelt
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kycelt 1754 vs Nesnera 1784
Nesnera
Wrong
both rated, 29 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kycelt 20% vs Nesnera 40%
Nesnera
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kycelt 40% vs Nesnera 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kycelt -1 · Nesnera -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kycelt) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nesnera form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKycelt 1.80 / Nesnera 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kycelt)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13053762
Kycelt1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 40 of 65
Up 2–0, closes it96% 25 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it83% 33 of 40
Nesnera1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog41% won 14 of 34
Down 0–1, comes back24% 5 of 21
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeKycelt4wins
AwayNesnera1wins
1 of 5 to a deciderKycelt leads 4–1, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKycelt100%3 of 3
AwayNesneran = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kycelt3Nesnera2n = 5Kycelt took 3 of 5
S2Kycelt3Nesnera2n = 5Kycelt took 3 of 5
S3Kycelt4Nesnera1n = 5Kycelt took 4 of 5
S4Kycelt2Nesnera1n = 3Kycelt took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home240%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricKyceltNesneraK − NBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match36.831.2+5.6per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKyceltNesneraBasisWin rate · lifetime150 / 301 vs 85 / 16349.8%52.2%150 / 301 vs 85 / 163Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KyceltKycelt 1.80/Nesnera 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kycelt · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kycelt won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LAug 31 · 14:30J. Kycelt—761141J. Nesnera—11117113
WJun 1 · 14:00J. Kycelt—1111113J. Nesnera—8450
WMay 21 · 16:58J. Kycelt—11911113J. Nesnera—711871
WMay 21 · 14:30J. Kycelt—911611113J. Nesnera—11811892
WJun 6 · 14:00J. Kycelt—1111113J. Nesnera—9910
J. Kycelt10
LSep 2 · 21:28J. Kycelt1.50116871M. Huk2.5041111113LSep 2 · 20:00J. Kycelt1.916840T. Postelt1.801111113WSep 2 · 19:30J. Ruzicka2.509750J. Kycelt1.501111113WSep 2 · 18:00J. Kycelt1.531111113M. Huk2.388780WSep 2 · 03:00L. Zeman1.73891251J. Kycelt2.00111110113LSep 2 · 01:30J. Kycelt2.63913691E. Mares1.44111111113LSep 2 · 24:30M. Huk2.5011612113J. Kycelt1.508111081LSep 1 · 23:30L. Zeman1.7310111011123J. Kycelt2.00126125102WSep 1 · 22:30J. Kycelt1.9111113113F. Wolf1.80361191LSep 1 · 17:30J. Kycelt1.85116781T. Postelt1.8581111113
J. Nesnera10
LAug 31 · 16:30E. Mares1.401111113J. Nesnera2.754970LAug 31 · 15:30J. Nesnera2.3813670V. Koubek1.531511113WAug 31 · 14:30J. Kycelt1.73761141J. Nesnera2.0011117113LAug 17 · 16:59E. Mares1.401113113J. Nesnera2.7571180WAug 17 · 16:00E. Mares1.301189101J. Nesnera3.4011111123LAug 17 · 15:00O. Kolisnyk3.001311123J. Nesnera1.36116100LAug 17 · 14:30J. Nesnera1.73118714122T. Postelt2.009111112143LAug 11 · 17:30E. Mares1.451111113J. Nesnera2.603870WAug 11 · 16:00J. Nesnera1.731121011113T. Postelt2.0061112862WAug 11 · 15:30M. Kratochvil1.83111011632J. Nesnera1.83912411113
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