TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12405722
Played Aug 11Finished
Erik Mares
Home
1.45
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
113118117––––
Jiri Nesnera
Away
2.60
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:03 and never touched — 66.2% is still 66.2%
Graded at full timeErik Mares to win
66.2%
66.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingErik Mares above · Jiri Nesnera below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 51 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Erik Mares at 66.2%
51 points played in total.
H2H Erik Mares 5–3 Jiri Nesnera Jiri Nesnera has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:03What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.45 (64%)
Mares
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-3 in 8
Mares
Correct
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mares 1828 vs Nesnera 1837
Nesnera
Wrong
both rated, 9 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mares 60% vs Nesnera 80%
Nesnera
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mares 50% vs Nesnera 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mares +1 · Nesnera +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Mares)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nesnera form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMares 1.45 / Nesnera 2.60
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Mares)+2.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12405722
Mares1.45
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 104 of 178
Up 2–0, closes it87% 65 of 75
Up 1–0, closes it72% 84 of 116
Nesnera2.60
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 12 of 29
Down 0–1, comes back19% 3 of 16
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeMares5wins
AwayNesnera3wins
Mares leads 5–3.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMares66.7%4 of 6
AwayNesneran = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mares6Nesnera2n = 8Mares took 6 of 8
S2Mares5Nesnera3n = 8Mares took 5 of 8
S3Mares3Nesnera5n = 8Nesnera took 5 of 8
S4Mares4Nesnera3n = 7Mares took 4 of 7
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home450%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away338%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricMaresNesneraM − NBasisWins53+2in 8 meetingsFirst set62+4of 8Avg pointsper match38.633.0+5.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaresNesneraBasisWin rate · lifetime558 / 1117 vs 86 / 15850%54.4%558 / 1117 vs 86 / 158Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.938.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaresMares 1.45/Nesnera 2.60
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.2%
Mares · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Mares won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WAug 11 · 14:00E. Mares—11811113J. Nesnera—711551
LAug 6 · 16:30E. Mares—1279111J. Nesnera—101111133
WJun 30 · 15:00E. Mares—111111113J. Nesnera—781391
LJan 1 · 10:30E. Mares—1111791J. Nesnera—13911113
WJan 1 · 07:30E. Mares—81211113J. Nesnera—1110641
WAug 16 · 08:00E. Mares—1111113J. Nesnera—2760
LJul 26 · 09:30E. Mares—115891J. Nesnera—41111113
WJul 26 · 08:00E. Mares—11116113J. Nesnera—481141
E. Mares10
LSep 6 · 09:00E. Mares1.579111111102O. Kolisnyk2.25111369123WSep 6 · 08:00E. Mares1.83114116113J. Vales1.8351151152WSep 6 · 07:30O. Kolisnyk2.5089111172E. Mares1.50111169113LSep 6 · 06:00E. Mares1.83911117102T. Postelt1.83113911123LSep 5 · 13:00E. Mares1.731111771J. Zajicek2.0061311113LSep 5 · 12:00E. Mares1.83119113132J. Vales1.83611511153WSep 5 · 11:30J. Zajicek1.73911681E. Mares2.0011711113LSep 5 · 10:00E. Mares2.259620J. Medek1.571111113LSep 4 · 21:30E. Mares2.00311111052J. Medek1.73119912113WSep 4 · 20:00E. Mares1.8011813113J. Vales1.912111171
J. Nesnera10
LAug 31 · 17:00J. Kycelt1.8071212133J. Nesnera1.91111010111LAug 31 · 16:30E. Mares1.401111113J. Nesnera2.754970LAug 31 · 15:30J. Nesnera2.3813670V. Koubek1.531511113WAug 31 · 14:30J. Kycelt1.73761141J. Nesnera2.0011117113LAug 17 · 16:59E. Mares1.401113113J. Nesnera2.7571180WAug 17 · 16:00E. Mares1.301189101J. Nesnera3.4011111123LAug 17 · 15:00O. Kolisnyk3.001311123J. Nesnera1.36116100LAug 17 · 14:30J. Nesnera1.73118714122T. Postelt2.009111112143WAug 11 · 16:00J. Nesnera1.731121011113T. Postelt2.0061112862WAug 11 · 15:30M. Kratochvil1.83111011632J. Nesnera1.83912411113
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