TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13047934
Played Aug 31Finished
Jakub Kycelt
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711611117411––
Jiri Nesnera
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:53 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Kycelt to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJakub Kycelt above · Jiri Nesnera below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 68 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Jakub Kycelt at 54.0%
68 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Kycelt 4–0 Jiri Nesnera Jiri Nesnera has won 0 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:53What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kycelt
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-0 in 4
Kycelt
Wrong
gap of 4 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kycelt 1764 vs Nesnera 1812
Nesnera
Correct
both rated, 48 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kycelt 20% vs Nesnera 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kycelt 50% vs Nesnera 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kycelt -3 · Nesnera -1
Kycelt
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kycelt)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nesnera form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKycelt 1.73 / Nesnera 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kycelt)+0.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13047934
Kycelt1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 40 of 65
Up 2–0, closes it96% 25 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it83% 33 of 40
Nesnera2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog41% won 14 of 34
Down 0–1, comes back24% 5 of 21
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeKycelt4wins
AwayNesnera0wins
1 of 4 to a deciderKycelt leads 4–0, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKycelt100%3 of 3
AwayNesneran = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kycelt3Nesnera1n = 4Kycelt took 3 of 4
S2Kycelt3Nesnera1n = 4Kycelt took 3 of 4
S3Kycelt3Nesnera1n = 4Kycelt took 3 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home250%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricKyceltNesneraK − NBasisWins40+4in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match39.029.0+10.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKyceltNesneraBasisWin rate · lifetime148 / 297 vs 84 / 15949.8%52.8%148 / 297 vs 84 / 159Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KyceltKycelt 1.73/Nesnera 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kycelt · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Nesnera won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WJun 1 · 14:00J. Kycelt—1111113J. Nesnera—8450
WMay 21 · 16:58J. Kycelt—11911113J. Nesnera—711871
WMay 21 · 14:30J. Kycelt—911611113J. Nesnera—11811892
WJun 6 · 14:00J. Kycelt—1111113J. Nesnera—9910
J. Kycelt10
LSep 2 · 21:28J. Kycelt1.50116871M. Huk2.5041111113LSep 2 · 20:00J. Kycelt1.916840T. Postelt1.801111113WSep 2 · 19:30J. Ruzicka2.509750J. Kycelt1.501111113WSep 2 · 18:00J. Kycelt1.531111113M. Huk2.388780WSep 2 · 03:00L. Zeman1.73891251J. Kycelt2.00111110113LSep 2 · 01:30J. Kycelt2.63913691E. Mares1.44111111113LSep 2 · 24:30M. Huk2.5011612113J. Kycelt1.508111081LSep 1 · 23:30L. Zeman1.7310111011123J. Kycelt2.00126125102WSep 1 · 22:30J. Kycelt1.9111113113F. Wolf1.80361191LSep 1 · 17:30J. Kycelt1.85116781T. Postelt1.8581111113
J. Nesnera10
LAug 31 · 17:00J. Kycelt1.8071212133J. Nesnera1.91111010111LAug 31 · 16:30E. Mares1.401111113J. Nesnera2.754970LAug 31 · 15:30J. Nesnera2.3813670V. Koubek1.531511113LAug 17 · 16:59E. Mares1.401113113J. Nesnera2.7571180WAug 17 · 16:00E. Mares1.301189101J. Nesnera3.4011111123LAug 17 · 15:00O. Kolisnyk3.001311123J. Nesnera1.36116100LAug 17 · 14:30J. Nesnera1.73118714122T. Postelt2.009111112143LAug 11 · 17:30E. Mares1.451111113J. Nesnera2.603870WAug 11 · 16:00J. Nesnera1.731121011113T. Postelt2.0061112862WAug 11 · 15:30M. Kratochvil1.83111011632J. Nesnera1.83912411113
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