TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13059906
Played Sep 1Finished
Vojtech Koubek
Home
1.68
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
6111181181210––
Erik Mares
Away
1.94
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:03 and never touched — 59.0% is still 59.0%
Graded at full timeVojtech Koubek to win
59.0%
59.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVojtech Koubek above · Erik Mares below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 77 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Vojtech Koubek at 59.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H Vojtech Koubek 49–26 Erik Mares Erik Mares has won 26 of their 75 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:03What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.68 (54%)
Koubek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
49-26 in 75
Koubek
Correct
gap of 23 in 75, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Koubek 1884 vs Mares 1888
Mares
Wrong
both rated, 4 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Koubek 80% vs Mares 60%
Koubek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Koubek 80% vs Mares 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Koubek -1 · Mares +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Koubek) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Koubek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKoubek 1.68 / Mares 1.94
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Koubek)+2.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13059906
Koubek1.68
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite54% won 35 of 65
Up 2–0, closes it100% 18 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it81% 26 of 32
Mares1.94
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog45% won 97 of 216
Down 0–1, comes back26% 28 of 110
Down 0–2, comes back13% 8 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKoubek6wins
AwayMares4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKoubek leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKoubek100%6 of 6
AwayMares100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Koubek6Mares4n = 10Koubek took 6 of 10
S2Koubek5Mares5n = 10split evenly
S3Koubek3Mares7n = 10Mares took 7 of 10
S4Koubek5Mares0n = 5Koubek took 5 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKoubekMaresK − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match34.136.2−2.1per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKoubekMaresBasisWin rate · lifetime188 / 367 vs 587 / 116851.2%50.3%188 / 367 vs 587 / 1168Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.539.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KoubekKoubek 1.68/Mares 1.94
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.6%
Koubek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Koubek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 31 · 17:30V. Koubek—11911123E. Mares—4117101
LAug 31 · 14:00V. Koubek—6740E. Mares—1111113
WAug 27 · 17:28V. Koubek—11139113E. Mares—7111191
WAug 27 · 16:00V. Koubek—11136123E. Mares—81111101
WAug 20 · 14:30V. Koubek—1115113E. Mares—91390
LAug 18 · 17:30V. Koubek—71161132E. Mares—117119113
LAug 18 · 15:30V. Koubek—8680E. Mares—1111113
WAug 10 · 14:30V. Koubek—1116113E. Mares—81450
LAug 6 · 16:58V. Koubek—4640E. Mares—1111113
WAug 6 · 15:00V. Koubek—125711113E. Mares—101111682
V. Koubek10
LSep 1 · 16:00M. Parzhizek1.337111110113V. Koubek3.2511641292WSep 1 · 15:00E. Mares2.101051181V. Koubek1.6712119113WSep 1 · 14:28V. Koubek2.6311116113J. Medek1.44681141WAug 31 · 17:30E. Mares2.104117101V. Koubek1.6511911123WAug 31 · 16:00V. Koubek1.4011115113J. Kycelt2.75141171WAug 31 · 15:30J. Nesnera2.3813670V. Koubek1.531511113LAug 31 · 14:00V. Koubek1.736740E. Mares2.001111113WAug 27 · 17:28V. Koubek1.6711139113E. Mares2.107111191WAug 27 · 16:00E. Mares1.7381111101V. Koubek2.0011136123WAug 27 · 15:00J. Kanera2.506390V. Koubek1.501111113
E. Mares10
LSep 6 · 09:00E. Mares1.579111111102O. Kolisnyk2.25111369123WSep 6 · 08:00E. Mares1.83114116113J. Vales1.8351151152WSep 6 · 07:30O. Kolisnyk2.5089111172E. Mares1.50111169113LSep 6 · 06:00E. Mares1.83911117102T. Postelt1.83113911123LSep 5 · 13:00E. Mares1.731111771J. Zajicek2.0061311113LSep 1 · 15:00E. Mares2.101051181V. Koubek1.6712119113LAug 31 · 17:30E. Mares2.104117101V. Koubek1.6511911123WAug 31 · 14:00V. Koubek1.736740E. Mares2.001111113LAug 27 · 17:28V. Koubek1.6711139113E. Mares2.107111191LAug 27 · 16:00E. Mares1.7381111101V. Koubek2.0011136123
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