TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13052644
Played Sep 1Finished
Erik Mares
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1012511119811––
Vojtech Koubek
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:46 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeVojtech Koubek to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingErik Mares above · Vojtech Koubek below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 77 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Vojtech Koubek at 54.9%
77 points played in total.
H2H Erik Mares 26–49 Vojtech Koubek Erik Mares has won 26 of their 75 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:46What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Koubek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
26-49 in 75
Koubek
Correct
gap of 23 in 75, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mares 1887 vs Koubek 1881
Mares
Wrong
both rated, 5 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mares 60% vs Koubek 80%
Koubek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mares 70% vs Koubek 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mares +1 · Koubek +4
Koubek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Koubek) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Koubek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMares 2.10 / Koubek 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Koubek)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13052644
Mares2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog45% won 97 of 216
Down 0–1, comes back26% 28 of 110
Down 0–2, comes back13% 8 of 62
Koubek1.67
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite54% won 35 of 65
Up 2–0, closes it100% 18 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it81% 26 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMares4wins
AwayKoubek6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKoubek leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMares100%4 of 4
AwayKoubek100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mares4Koubek6n = 10Koubek took 6 of 10
S2Mares5Koubek5n = 10split evenly
S3Mares7Koubek3n = 10Mares took 7 of 10
S4Mares0Koubek5n = 5Koubek took 5 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaresKoubekM − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.234.1+2.1per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaresKoubekBasisWin rate · lifetime586 / 1166 vs 187 / 36550.3%51.2%586 / 1166 vs 187 / 365Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.936.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KoubekMares 2.10/Koubek 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57%
Koubek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Koubek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 31 · 17:30E. Mares—4117101V. Koubek—11911123
WAug 31 · 14:00E. Mares—1111113V. Koubek—6740
LAug 27 · 17:28E. Mares—7111191V. Koubek—11139113
LAug 27 · 16:00E. Mares—81111101V. Koubek—11136123
LAug 20 · 14:30E. Mares—91390V. Koubek—1115113
WAug 18 · 17:30E. Mares—117119113V. Koubek—71161132
WAug 18 · 15:30E. Mares—1111113V. Koubek—8680
LAug 10 · 14:30E. Mares—81450V. Koubek—1116113
WAug 6 · 16:58E. Mares—1111113V. Koubek—4640
LAug 6 · 15:00E. Mares—101111682V. Koubek—125711113
E. Mares10
LSep 6 · 09:00E. Mares1.579111111102O. Kolisnyk2.25111369123WSep 6 · 08:00E. Mares1.83114116113J. Vales1.8351151152WSep 6 · 07:30O. Kolisnyk2.5089111172E. Mares1.50111169113LSep 6 · 06:00E. Mares1.83911117102T. Postelt1.83113911123LSep 5 · 13:00E. Mares1.731111771J. Zajicek2.0061311113LSep 5 · 12:00E. Mares1.83119113132J. Vales1.83611511153WSep 5 · 11:30J. Zajicek1.73911681E. Mares2.0011711113LSep 5 · 10:00E. Mares2.259620J. Medek1.571111113LSep 4 · 21:30E. Mares2.00311111052J. Medek1.73119912113WSep 4 · 20:00E. Mares1.8011813113J. Vales1.912111171
V. Koubek10
WSep 1 · 17:30V. Koubek1.6861111123E. Mares1.941188101LSep 1 · 16:00M. Parzhizek1.337111110113V. Koubek3.2511641292WSep 1 · 14:28V. Koubek2.6311116113J. Medek1.44681141WAug 31 · 17:30E. Mares2.104117101V. Koubek1.6511911123WAug 31 · 16:00V. Koubek1.4011115113J. Kycelt2.75141171WAug 31 · 15:30J. Nesnera2.3813670V. Koubek1.531511113LAug 31 · 14:00V. Koubek1.736740E. Mares2.001111113WAug 27 · 17:28V. Koubek1.6711139113E. Mares2.107111191WAug 27 · 16:00E. Mares1.7381111101V. Koubek2.0011136123WAug 27 · 15:00J. Kanera2.506390V. Koubek1.501111113
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