TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13018121
Played Aug 27Finished
Jan Mecl Jr
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
311811711––––
Erik Mares
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:39 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Mecl Jr to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJan Mecl Jr above · Erik Mares below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 51 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Jan Mecl Jr at 54.0%
51 points played in total.
H2H Jan Mecl Jr 24–27 Erik Mares Jan Mecl Jr has won 24 of their 51 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:39What took a side0 for · 3 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Mares
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-27 in 51
Mares
Correct
gap of 3 in 51, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jr 1877 vs Mares 1889
Mares
Correct
both rated, 12 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 40% vs Mares 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 40% vs Mares 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr +1 · Mares -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Mares) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mares form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 2.20 / Mares 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Mares)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13018121
Jr2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 29 of 72
Down 0–1, comes back21% 9 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back13% 3 of 24
Mares1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 130 of 220
Up 2–0, closes it87% 83 of 95
Up 1–0, closes it73% 105 of 144
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJr4wins
AwayMares6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMares leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJrn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMares62.5%5 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jr2Mares8n = 10Mares took 8 of 10
S2Jr2Mares8n = 10Mares took 8 of 10
S3Jr4Mares6n = 10Mares took 6 of 10
S4Jr3Mares2n = 5Jr took 3 of 5
S5Jr3Mares1n = 4Jr took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricJrMaresJ − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match35.140.9−5.8per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrMaresBasisWin rate · lifetime412 / 780 vs 587 / 116352.8%50.5%412 / 780 vs 587 / 1163Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.939.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaresJr 2.20/Mares 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.1%
Mares · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Mares won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 10 · 10:00J. Jr—812100E. Mares—1114123
WAug 5 · 06:00J. Jr—711128113E. Mares—119101162
WJul 28 · 13:00J. Jr—11413133E. Mares—81111111
LJul 28 · 11:30J. Jr—11114982E. Mares—681111113
WJun 22 · 12:30J. Jr—9121211113E. Mares—111410982
WJun 17 · 09:00J. Jr—8101111123E. Mares—111298102
LJun 17 · 06:30J. Jr—54100E. Mares—1111123
LJun 11 · 08:59J. Jr—8930E. Mares—1111113
LJun 11 · 08:00J. Jr—7490E. Mares—1111113
LJan 31 · 22:30J. Jr—61150E. Mares—1113113
J. Jr10
WSep 5 · 20:58J. Jr1.5711119113O. Kolisnyk2.25691181WSep 5 · 20:00J. Jr1.611112157133M. Zahradka2.209141311112WSep 5 · 19:30O. Kolisnyk2.256490J. Jr1.571111113LSep 5 · 18:00J. Jr1.53691291J. Kanera2.38111110113LAug 27 · 16:58J. Jr1.6111581182J. Kanera2.20911114113WAug 27 · 16:30J. Kanera2.2010950J. Jr1.611211113LAug 27 · 15:30J. Jr2.38481191E. Mares1.5311117113LAug 27 · 14:30V. Koubek1.40111015113J. Jr2.754121371LAug 27 · 13:00J. Jr1.61114891M. Kratochvil2.2071111113WAug 27 · 11:30M. Kratochvil1.737990J. Jr2.001111113
E. Mares10
LSep 6 · 09:00E. Mares1.579111111102O. Kolisnyk2.25111369123WSep 6 · 08:00E. Mares1.83114116113J. Vales1.8351151152WSep 6 · 07:30O. Kolisnyk2.5089111172E. Mares1.50111169113LSep 6 · 06:00E. Mares1.83911117102T. Postelt1.83113911123LSep 5 · 13:00E. Mares1.731111771J. Zajicek2.0061311113LSep 5 · 12:00E. Mares1.83119113132J. Vales1.83611511153WSep 5 · 11:30J. Zajicek1.73911681E. Mares2.0011711113LSep 5 · 10:00E. Mares2.259620J. Medek1.571111113LSep 4 · 21:30E. Mares2.00311111052J. Medek1.73119912113WAug 27 · 15:30J. Jr2.38481191E. Mares1.5311117113
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