TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13065554
Played Sep 3Finished
Erik Mares
Home
1.22
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9111614811911––
Michal Zahradka
Away
4.00
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:09 and never touched — 57.9% is still 57.9%
Graded at full timeErik Mares to win
57.9%
57.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingErik Mares above · Michal Zahradka below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 16-14
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 89 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Erik Mares at 57.9%
89 points played in total.
H2H Erik Mares 25–15 Michal Zahradka Michal Zahradka has won 15 of their 40 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:09What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.22 (77%)
Mares
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
25-15 in 40
Mares
Wrong
gap of 10 in 40, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mares 1881 vs Zahradka 1853
Mares
Wrong
both rated, 28 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mares 60% vs Zahradka 100%
Zahradka
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mares 60% vs Zahradka 80%
Zahradka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mares +1 · Zahradka +5
Zahradka
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Mares) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zahradka form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (25%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMares 1.22 / Zahradka 4.00
Signal prob.77% / 23%
Edge (Mares)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13065554
Mares1.22
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 141 of 242
Up 2–0, closes it86% 89 of 103
Up 1–0, closes it72% 114 of 159
Zahradka4.00
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog40% won 79 of 200
Down 0–1, comes back18% 18 of 98
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 58
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMares8wins
AwayZahradka2wins
1 of 10 to a deciderMares leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMares100%7 of 7
AwayZahradka66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mares7Zahradka3n = 10Mares took 7 of 10
S2Mares7Zahradka3n = 10Mares took 7 of 10
S3Mares8Zahradka2n = 10Mares took 8 of 10
S4Mares2Zahradka2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaresZahradkaM − ZBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match36.928.1+8.8per matchSweeps51+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaresZahradkaBasisWin rate · lifetime589 / 1172 vs 434 / 89050.3%48.8%589 / 1172 vs 434 / 890Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.938.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaresMares 1.22/Zahradka 4.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
77%
Mares · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Zahradka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 12 · 13:00E. Mares—11511113M. Zahradka—011771
WAug 12 · 10:30E. Mares—1111113M. Zahradka—9830
LAug 12 · 07:30E. Mares—981191M. Zahradka—11116113
WMay 21 · 10:00E. Mares—1111113M. Zahradka—8980
WMay 18 · 09:00E. Mares—71111113M. Zahradka—113481
WMay 18 · 07:30E. Mares—1211113M. Zahradka—10960
WMay 8 · 24:00E. Mares—1111810113M. Zahradka—36111272
WMay 5 · 13:28E. Mares—1111113M. Zahradka—5470
WMay 5 · 11:30E. Mares—1111133M. Zahradka—77110
LMay 4 · 13:29E. Mares—914120M. Zahradka—1116143
E. Mares10
LSep 6 · 09:00E. Mares1.579111111102O. Kolisnyk2.25111369123WSep 6 · 08:00E. Mares1.83114116113J. Vales1.8351151152WSep 6 · 07:30O. Kolisnyk2.5089111172E. Mares1.50111169113LSep 6 · 06:00E. Mares1.83911117102T. Postelt1.83113911123LSep 5 · 13:00E. Mares1.731111771J. Zajicek2.0061311113LSep 5 · 12:00E. Mares1.83119113132J. Vales1.83611511153WSep 5 · 11:30J. Zajicek1.73911681E. Mares2.0011711113LSep 5 · 10:00E. Mares2.259620J. Medek1.571111113LSep 4 · 21:30E. Mares2.00311111052J. Medek1.73119912113WSep 4 · 20:00E. Mares1.8011813113J. Vales1.912111171
M. Zahradka10
WSep 5 · 21:28M. Zahradka1.731111113J. Kanera2.006450LSep 5 · 20:00J. Jr1.611112157133M. Zahradka2.209141311112WSep 5 · 19:00J. Kanera2.104121151M. Zahradka1.671114793WSep 5 · 18:30M. Zahradka1.831111188113O. Kolisnyk1.8348201182LSep 3 · 13:29M. Zahradka1.6110131081M. Huk2.20121112113WSep 3 · 11:00M. Huk1.91711561M. Zahradka1.8011911113WSep 3 · 10:30M. Zahradka1.6191111113J. Ruzicka2.20116361WSep 3 · 09:28M. Zahradka1.801111113M. Huk1.915750WSep 3 · 08:00M. Zahradka1.73511114123M. Huk2.00118711102WSep 3 · 07:30J. Ruzicka2.105480M. Zahradka1.671111113
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