TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13114726
Played Sep 12Finished
Erik Mares
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118119116––––
Lukas Jindrak
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:09 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeErik Mares to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingErik Mares above · Lukas Jindrak below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 56 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Erik Mares at 54.0%
56 points played in total.
H2H Erik Mares 23–35 Lukas Jindrak Erik Mares has won 23 of their 58 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:09What took a side0 for · 4 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Jindrak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-35 in 58
Jindrak
Wrong
gap of 12 in 58, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mares 1864 vs Jindrak 1888
Jindrak
Wrong
both rated, 25 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mares 20% vs Jindrak 40%
Jindrak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mares 50% vs Jindrak 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mares -1 · Jindrak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Jindrak) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jindrak form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMares 2.20 / Jindrak 1.61
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Jindrak)-1.4pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13114726
Mares2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog45% won 104 of 229
Down 0–1, comes back25% 29 of 115
Down 0–2, comes back13% 8 of 64
Jindrak1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 80 of 131
Up 2–0, closes it90% 36 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it76% 53 of 70
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMares3wins
AwayJindrak7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderJindrak leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaresn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayJindrak87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mares2Jindrak8n = 10Jindrak took 8 of 10
S2Mares6Jindrak4n = 10Mares took 6 of 10
S3Mares2Jindrak8n = 10Jindrak took 8 of 10
S4Mares3Jindrak3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaresJindrakM − JBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match32.937.3−4.4per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaresJindrakBasisWin rate · lifetime600 / 1196 vs 243 / 44450.2%54.7%600 / 1196 vs 243 / 444Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.039.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JindrakMares 2.20/Jindrak 1.61
Miss
What we said
56.3%
Jindrak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Mares won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 26 · 08:00E. Mares—1111113L. Jindrak—9880
LAug 20 · 16:58E. Mares—712130L. Jindrak—1114153
LAug 20 · 16:00E. Mares—811751L. Jindrak—11011113
LAug 16 · 09:00E. Mares—6850L. Jindrak—1111113
LAug 16 · 06:00E. Mares—111161172L. Jindrak—138115113
LAug 10 · 15:00E. Mares—611321L. Jindrak—11111113
WAug 10 · 13:28E. Mares—11115123L. Jindrak—4411101
LAug 10 · 11:00E. Mares—94140L. Jindrak—1111163
LAug 8 · 12:00E. Mares—1211191L. Jindrak—14711113
WAug 8 · 09:30E. Mares—571311113L. Jindrak—111111982
E. Mares10
LSep 12 · 07:30T. Kos1.7311111113E. Mares2.00571181WSep 12 · 06:00E. Mares1.501111113M. Huk2.502960LSep 7 · 20:59E. Mares1.3311101412122P. Bradach3.255121214143LSep 7 · 20:00P. Bradach2.75531112203E. Mares1.401111810182LSep 7 · 19:00J. Kycelt2.3812121410113E. Mares1.531010161292WSep 7 · 18:30E. Mares1.2511119113M. Zahradka3.75841151WSep 7 · 17:29E. Mares1.221111113J. Kycelt4.004750WSep 7 · 16:00E. Mares1.251111113M. Zahradka3.753870LSep 7 · 15:30J. Kycelt2.50591211193E. Mares1.501111109172WSep 7 · 14:00E. Mares1.83131111113T. Postelt1.83157561
L. Jindrak10
WSep 12 · 07:00M. Huk2.5081213962L. Jindrak1.5011101111113LSep 12 · 06:30L. Jindrak1.806990T. Kos1.911111113LSep 8 · 16:58L. Jindrak1.73118116102V. Koubek2.00611611123WSep 8 · 16:00L. Jindrak1.9111117113V. Koubek1.80861141LSep 8 · 15:30T. Postelt2.3811414113L. Jindrak1.536111281LSep 8 · 14:00L. Jindrak1.571310671M. Zahradka2.25111211113LSep 5 · 16:59L. Jindrak1.8576110J. Vales1.851111133WSep 5 · 16:00L. Jindrak2.6391111113J. Zajicek1.44114941LSep 5 · 15:30J. Medek1.331111113L. Jindrak3.257750WSep 5 · 14:00L. Jindrak1.831011511113J. Vales1.8312911592
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