TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13114717
Played Sep 12Finished
Tomas Kos
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
115117111118––
Erik Mares
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:10 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Kos to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Kos above · Erik Mares below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 1-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 65 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Tomas Kos at 54.0%
65 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Kos 18–18 Erik Mares Dead even across their 36 meetings.
Last 10 · 6–4Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:10What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kos
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-18 in 36
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kos 1910 vs Mares 1874
Kos
Correct
both rated, 35 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kos 60% vs Mares 40%
Kos
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kos 60% vs Mares 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kos +2 · Mares +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Kos) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKos 1.73 / Mares 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Kos)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13114717
Kos1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite55% won 22 of 40
Up 2–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it72% 18 of 25
Mares2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog45% won 104 of 229
Down 0–1, comes back25% 29 of 115
Down 0–2, comes back13% 8 of 64
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKos6wins
AwayMares4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKos leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKos75%3 of 4
AwayMares50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kos4Mares6n = 10Mares took 6 of 10
S2Kos6Mares4n = 10Kos took 6 of 10
S3Kos7Mares3n = 10Kos took 7 of 10
S4Kos4Mares3n = 7Kos took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKosMaresK − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.635.9+2.7per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKosMaresBasisWin rate · lifetime88 / 180 vs 600 / 119548.9%50.2%88 / 180 vs 600 / 1195Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.240.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KosKos 1.73/Mares 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.9%
Kos · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kos won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 11:30T. Kos—891181E. Mares—11114113
WAug 30 · 06:30T. Kos—11711113E. Mares—411551
WAug 28 · 12:30T. Kos—1611113E. Mares—14580
WAug 20 · 15:00T. Kos—891211113E. Mares—111110992
WAug 20 · 13:28T. Kos—1114113E. Mares—91270
LAug 20 · 12:00T. Kos—7570E. Mares—1111113
LAug 15 · 17:29T. Kos—111389112E. Mares—9111111123
LAug 15 · 15:30T. Kos—311851E. Mares—11111113
WJul 19 · 11:00T. Kos—101111113E. Mares—126881
WJul 19 · 06:00T. Kos—81111143E. Mares—1177121
T. Kos10
WSep 12 · 06:30L. Jindrak1.806990T. Kos1.911111113WAug 30 · 12:59T. Kos1.401111113M. Kratochvil2.756980LAug 30 · 12:30Z. Bilek1.91911811113T. Kos1.8011611442LAug 30 · 11:30T. Kos1.67891181E. Mares2.1011114113WAug 30 · 10:30M. Kratochvil3.00911115142T. Kos1.36116611163LAug 30 · 09:29J. Zajicek1.361111143T. Kos3.0083120LAug 30 · 08:30J. Zajicek1.401111113T. Kos2.758570WAug 30 · 07:30T. Kos1.441111113M. Kratochvil2.638860WAug 30 · 06:30E. Mares2.00411551T. Kos1.7311711113WAug 28 · 13:30T. Kos2.2011101011113J. Cernik1.6091212992
E. Mares10
WSep 12 · 06:00E. Mares1.501111113M. Huk2.502960LSep 7 · 20:59E. Mares1.3311101412122P. Bradach3.255121214143LSep 7 · 20:00P. Bradach2.75531112203E. Mares1.401111810182LSep 7 · 19:00J. Kycelt2.3812121410113E. Mares1.531010161292WSep 7 · 18:30E. Mares1.2511119113M. Zahradka3.75841151WSep 7 · 17:29E. Mares1.221111113J. Kycelt4.004750WSep 7 · 16:00E. Mares1.251111113M. Zahradka3.753870LSep 7 · 15:30J. Kycelt2.50591211193E. Mares1.501111109172WAug 30 · 11:30T. Kos1.67891181E. Mares2.1011114113LAug 30 · 06:30E. Mares2.00411551T. Kos1.7311711113
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