TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13114738
Played Sep 12Finished
Tomas Kos
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
11131214811––––
Erik Mares
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:04 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Kos to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Kos above · Erik Mares below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 69 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Tomas Kos at 54.0%
69 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Kos 20–18 Erik Mares Erik Mares has won 18 of their 38 meetings.
They have already met 2 times today · last one 1h before this match
Kos beat Mares 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:04What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kos
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-18 in 38
Kos
Wrong
gap of 2 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kos 1927 vs Mares 1858
Kos
Wrong
both rated, 70 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kos 80% vs Mares 40%
Kos
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kos 50% vs Mares 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kos +1 · Mares -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Kos) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kos form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKos 1.61 / Mares 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Kos)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13114738
Kos1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 22 of 40
Up 2–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it72% 18 of 25
Mares2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog45% won 104 of 229
Down 0–1, comes back25% 29 of 115
Down 0–2, comes back13% 8 of 64
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKos6wins
AwayMares4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKos leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKos80%4 of 5
AwayMares60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kos5Mares5n = 10split evenly
S2Kos6Mares4n = 10Kos took 6 of 10
S3Kos6Mares4n = 10Kos took 6 of 10
S4Kos4Mares3n = 7Kos took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKosMaresK − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.535.0+2.5per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKosMaresBasisWin rate · lifetime90 / 183 vs 601 / 119849.2%50.2%90 / 183 vs 601 / 1198Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.340.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KosKos 1.61/Mares 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Kos · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Mares won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 12 · 09:30T. Kos4281111123E. Mares311164101
WSep 12 · 07:30T. Kos3411111113E. Mares31571181
LAug 30 · 11:30T. Kos36891181E. Mares3711114113
WAug 30 · 06:30T. Kos4011711113E. Mares25411551
WAug 28 · 12:30T. Kos381611113E. Mares2714580
WAug 20 · 15:00T. Kos51891211113E. Mares50111110992
WAug 20 · 13:28T. Kos361114113E. Mares2891270
LAug 20 · 12:00T. Kos197570E. Mares331111113
LAug 15 · 17:29T. Kos52111389112E. Mares549111111123
LAug 15 · 15:30T. Kos27311851E. Mares3411111113
T. Kos10
WSep 12 · 13:30L. Jindrak2.252740T. Kos1.571111113WSep 12 · 12:00L. Zeman2.7581190T. Kos1.401113113WSep 12 · 11:00L. Jindrak2.1068130T. Kos1.671111153WSep 12 · 09:30T. Kos1.6181111123E. Mares2.201164101LSep 12 · 08:30M. Huk3.25136711113T. Kos1.33111111962WSep 12 · 07:30T. Kos1.7311111113E. Mares2.00571181WSep 12 · 06:30L. Jindrak1.806990T. Kos1.911111113WAug 30 · 12:59T. Kos1.401111113M. Kratochvil2.756980LAug 30 · 12:30Z. Bilek1.91911811113T. Kos1.8011611442LAug 30 · 11:30T. Kos1.67891181E. Mares2.1011114113
E. Mares10
LSep 13 · 09:30L. Zeman1.721111122113E. Mares2.0086141142LSep 13 · 08:00M. Huk2.50116811133E. Mares1.50511119112WSep 13 · 07:00A. Barton3.007620E. Mares1.361111113LSep 13 · 06:30E. Mares1.80811791L. Zeman1.9111311113LSep 12 · 12:59E. Mares1.91531120102L. Zeman1.801111818123LSep 12 · 12:30L. Jindrak1.571111113E. Mares2.258770LSep 12 · 11:30E. Mares1.67891451L. Zeman2.10111112113LSep 12 · 09:30T. Kos1.6181111123E. Mares2.201164101LSep 12 · 07:30T. Kos1.7311111113E. Mares2.00571181WAug 30 · 11:30T. Kos1.67891181E. Mares2.1011114113
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