TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13124169
Played Sep 13Finished
Lukas Zeman
Home
1.72
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1181161214211114
Erik Mares
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:59 and never touched — 64.0% is still 64.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Zeman to win
64.0%
64.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Zeman above · Erik Mares below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 2-11
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 90 set 5, 11-4 — our read held Lukas Zeman at 64.0%
90 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Zeman 39–26 Erik Mares Erik Mares has won 26 of their 65 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Zeman beat Mares 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:59What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.72 (54%)
Zeman
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
39-26 in 65
Zeman
Correct
gap of 13 in 65, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zeman 1873 vs Mares 1782
Zeman
Correct
both rated, 91 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zeman 80% vs Mares 20%
Zeman
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zeman 60% vs Mares 30%
Zeman
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zeman +4 · Mares -1
Zeman
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Zeman) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mares form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZeman 1.72 / Mares 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Zeman)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13124169
Zeman1.72
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 34 of 63
Up 2–0, closes it95% 18 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it77% 27 of 35
Mares2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 91 of 201
Down 0–1, comes back25% 26 of 103
Down 0–2, comes back13% 8 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZeman6wins
AwayMares4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderZeman leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZeman83.3%5 of 6
AwayMares75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zeman6Mares4n = 10Zeman took 6 of 10
S2Zeman7Mares3n = 10Zeman took 7 of 10
S3Zeman3Mares7n = 10Mares took 7 of 10
S4Zeman4Mares6n = 10Mares took 6 of 10
S5Zeman3Mares1n = 4Zeman took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricZemanMaresZ − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match43.043.5−0.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZemanMaresBasisWin rate · lifetime261 / 519 vs 603 / 120650.3%50%261 / 519 vs 603 / 1206Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.539.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZemanZeman 1.72/Mares 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.2%
Zeman · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Zeman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 13 · 09:30L. Zeman471111122113E. Mares4386141142
WSep 13 · 06:30L. Zeman3611311113E. Mares35811791
WSep 12 · 12:59L. Zeman601111818123E. Mares49531120102
WSep 12 · 11:30L. Zeman45111112113E. Mares36891451
LSep 2 · 02:30L. Zeman38715881E. Mares46111311113
LAug 15 · 16:00L. Zeman417111491E. Mares4711916113
WAug 14 · 23:00L. Zeman43461111113E. Mares4311118852
WAug 8 · 11:30L. Zeman3913114113E. Mares371191161
LAug 8 · 06:00L. Zeman391081291E. Mares44121110113
LJul 27 · 21:30L. Zeman4213134482E. Mares5511111111113
L. Zeman10
WSep 13 · 08:30A. Barton2.50291191L. Zeman1.5011119113WSep 13 · 07:30L. Zeman1.5711911113M. Huk2.25511741WSep 13 · 06:30E. Mares1.80811791L. Zeman1.9111311113WSep 12 · 12:59E. Mares1.91531120102L. Zeman1.801111818123LSep 12 · 12:00L. Zeman2.7581190T. Kos1.401113113WSep 12 · 11:30E. Mares1.67891451L. Zeman2.10111112113LSep 12 · 10:00L. Zeman2.508140L. Jindrak1.501111113LSep 2 · 03:00L. Zeman1.73891251J. Kycelt2.00111110113LSep 2 · 02:30E. Mares1.80111311113L. Zeman1.91715881WSep 2 · 01:00F. Wolf2.00118813102L. Zeman1.739111111123
E. Mares10
LSep 13 · 08:00M. Huk2.50116811133E. Mares1.50511119112WSep 13 · 07:00A. Barton3.007620E. Mares1.361111113LSep 13 · 06:30E. Mares1.80811791L. Zeman1.9111311113LSep 12 · 12:59E. Mares1.91531120102L. Zeman1.801111818123LSep 12 · 12:30L. Jindrak1.571111113E. Mares2.258770LSep 12 · 11:30E. Mares1.67891451L. Zeman2.10111112113WSep 12 · 10:30T. Kos1.61111280E. Mares2.201314113LSep 12 · 09:30T. Kos1.6181111123E. Mares2.201164101WSep 12 · 08:00E. Mares2.201111113L. Jindrak1.618960WSep 2 · 02:30E. Mares1.80111311113L. Zeman1.91715881
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