TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13120349
Played Sep 13Finished
Jan Cernik
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
5111012911––––
Tomas Kos
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:18 and never touched — 58.8% is still 58.8%
Graded at full timeJan Cernik to win
58.8%
58.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Cernik above · Tomas Kos below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 58 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Jan Cernik at 58.8%
58 points played in total.
H2H Jan Cernik 10–5 Tomas Kos Tomas Kos has won 5 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:18What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Cernik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-5 in 15
Cernik
Wrong
gap of 5 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cernik 2083 vs Kos 1995
Cernik
Wrong
both rated, 89 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cernik 100% vs Kos 80%
Cernik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cernik 70% vs Kos 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cernik +5 · Kos +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Cernik) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kos form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCernik 1.53 / Kos 2.38
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Cernik)+2.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13120349
Cernik1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite70% won 83 of 118
Up 2–0, closes it96% 50 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it88% 63 of 72
Kos2.38
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog35% won 17 of 48
Down 0–1, comes back12% 3 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCernik6wins
AwayKos4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderCernik leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCernik100%4 of 4
AwayKos66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cernik4Kos6n = 10Kos took 6 of 10
S2Cernik6Kos4n = 10Cernik took 6 of 10
S3Cernik7Kos3n = 10Cernik took 7 of 10
S4Cernik3Kos4n = 7Kos took 4 of 7
S5Cernik3Kos2n = 5Cernik took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricCernikKosC − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.740.0−0.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCernikKosBasisWin rate · lifetime193 / 324 vs 92 / 18659.6%49.5%193 / 324 vs 92 / 186Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.436.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernikCernik 1.53/Kos 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.8%
Cernik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kos won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 28 · 13:30J. Cernik5191212992T. Kos5311101011113
LAug 28 · 10:30J. Cernik2239100T. Kos341111123
LAug 28 · 08:59J. Cernik4396111162T. Kos51111199113
WAug 28 · 07:30J. Cernik401211173T. Kos30105150
WJul 25 · 09:30J. Cernik44541113113T. Kos46111151182
WJul 25 · 06:30J. Cernik331111113T. Kos218670
WJul 19 · 12:30J. Cernik47111528113T. Kos51913111172
WJul 19 · 09:30J. Cernik50813117113T. Kos46111181152
LJul 19 · 07:00J. Cernik26711621T. Kos4211911113
WMay 10 · 10:00J. Cernik4111811113T. Kos26711261
J. Cernik10
WAug 29 · 13:30J. Cernik2.33911911113L. Boruvka1.5411511792WAug 29 · 12:30J. Cernik2.7512117113L. Boruvka1.401041161WAug 29 · 11:00J. Cernik1.281111113M. Kratochvil3.508630WAug 29 · 10:00J. Zajicek1.401149111J. Cernik2.7561111133WAug 29 · 09:00J. Cernik1.401111123M. Kratochvil2.6579100LAug 29 · 08:00L. Boruvka1.4061111113J. Cernik2.75119941WAug 29 · 07:00M. Kratochvil3.008780J. Cernik1.361111113LAug 29 · 06:30J. Cernik2.75611111182J. Zajicek1.40118713113LAug 28 · 13:30T. Kos2.2011101011113J. Cernik1.6091212992WAug 28 · 12:00M. Kratochvil2.385670J. Cernik1.531111113
T. Kos10
WSep 12 · 13:30L. Jindrak2.252740T. Kos1.571111113WSep 12 · 12:00L. Zeman2.7581190T. Kos1.401113113WSep 12 · 11:00L. Jindrak2.1068130T. Kos1.671111153LSep 12 · 10:30T. Kos1.61111280E. Mares2.201314113WSep 12 · 09:30T. Kos1.6181111123E. Mares2.201164101LSep 12 · 08:30M. Huk3.25136711113T. Kos1.33111111962WSep 12 · 07:30T. Kos1.7311111113E. Mares2.00571181WSep 12 · 06:30L. Jindrak1.806990T. Kos1.911111113WAug 30 · 12:59T. Kos1.401111113M. Kratochvil2.756980WAug 28 · 13:30T. Kos2.2011101011113J. Cernik1.6091212992
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