TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13117892
Played Sep 12Finished
Serhii Bului
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11311981171191
Petr Kolesnik
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:33 and never touched — 66.9% is still 66.9%
Graded at full timeSerhii Bului to win
66.9%
66.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Bului above · Petr Kolesnik below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 9-1
Point 81 set 5, 9-1 — our read held Serhii Bului at 66.9%
81 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Bului 7–1 Petr Kolesnik Petr Kolesnik has won 1 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 24:33What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Bului
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-1 in 8
Bului
Correct
gap of 6 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bului 1715 vs Kolesnik 1491
Bului
Correct
both rated, 223 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bului 80% vs Kolesnik 60%
Bului
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bului 40% vs Kolesnik 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Bului +4 · Kolesnik -2
Bului
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Bului) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolesnik form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBului 1.44 / Kolesnik 2.63
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Bului)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13117892
Bului1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite83% won 40 of 48
Up 2–0, closes it100% 28 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it88% 35 of 40
Kolesnik2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog32% won 19 of 60
Down 0–1, comes back13% 5 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeBului7wins
AwayKolesnik1wins
1 of 8 to a deciderBului leads 7–1, and 1 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBului100%6 of 6
AwayKolesnikn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bului6Kolesnik2n = 8Bului took 6 of 8
S2Bului5Kolesnik3n = 8Bului took 5 of 8
S3Bului5Kolesnik3n = 8Bului took 5 of 8
S4Bului4Kolesnik1n = 5Bului took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home225%
3–1Four sets, home450%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricBuluiKolesnikB − KBasisWins71+6in 8 meetingsFirst set62+4of 8Avg pointsper match38.133.4+4.7per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBuluiKolesnikBasisWin rate · lifetime96 / 200 vs 187 / 33548%55.8%96 / 200 vs 187 / 335Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.837.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BuluiBului 1.44/Kolesnik 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.9%
Bului · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Bului won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LAug 22 · 05:00S. Bului2697100P. Kolesnik341111123
WJul 5 · 08:00S. Bului331111113P. Kolesnik219750
WJul 4 · 13:30S. Bului4013511113P. Kolesnik361111681
WMay 17 · 06:30S. Bului4261411113P. Kolesnik391112971
WMay 16 · 14:00S. Bului3811115113P. Kolesnik29551181
WApr 5 · 06:30S. Bului331111113P. Kolesnik249870
WApr 4 · 14:00S. Bului51121477113P. Kolesnik511012111172
WJan 9 · 10:30S. Bului42111011103P. Kolesnik33712861
S. Bului10
WSep 12 · 13:30O. Torianyk2.20101040S. Bului1.611212103WAug 22 · 10:39S. Bului1.57127117113M. Levytskii2.25101131162WAug 22 · 09:00D. Tsys3.003540S. Bului1.361111113WAug 22 · 07:30O. Torianyk2.00611111192S. Bului1.73115813113WAug 22 · 06:00M. Levytskii2.3811113832S. Bului1.53791111113LAug 22 · 05:00P. Kolesnik3.401111123S. Bului1.3097100LAug 21 · 16:00S. Bului4.3363111272R. Horokh1.201111910113LAug 21 · 15:00S. Balabei1.17111013113S. Bului4.508121191LAug 21 · 14:00I. Shyndel1.251112123S. Bului3.75710100LAug 21 · 12:30D. Kryshtal1.2881111113S. Bului3.50113691
P. Kolesnik10
LSep 2 · 10:52P. Kolesnik3.2512930S. Sideltsev1.331411113LSep 2 · 09:30S. Sideltsev2.00912811123P. Kolesnik1.731110114102WSep 2 · 08:00P. Kolesnik1.251111113Y. Zvolynskyi3.756840WSep 2 · 06:30P. Kolesnik2.101111113N. Priadko1.678770WSep 2 · 05:00P. Kolesnik1.331111113M. Pohorilyi3.256950LSep 1 · 17:09P. Kolesnik1.28115881M. Pohorilyi3.5081111113LSep 1 · 16:00P. Kolesnik2.1014951372N. Priadko1.6712111111113LSep 1 · 15:00I. Dubinin3.4091411113P. Kolesnik1.301112891WSep 1 · 14:00M. Pohorilyi3.5057111182P. Kolesnik1.28111158113WAug 22 · 05:00P. Kolesnik3.401111123S. Bului1.3097100
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.