TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13116826
Played Sep 12Finished
Serhii Ponomarenko
Home
1.03
At publish
Won last 10Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 10
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119711117119––
Dmytro Kryshtal
Away
10.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:56 and never touched — 91.8% is still 91.8%
Graded at full timeSerhii Ponomarenko to win
91.8%
91.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Ponomarenko above · Dmytro Kryshtal below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 76 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Serhii Ponomarenko at 91.8%
76 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Ponomarenko 96–5 Dmytro Kryshtal Dmytro Kryshtal has won 5 of their 101 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:56What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.03 (91%)
Ponomarenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
96-5 in 101
Ponomarenko
Correct
gap of 91 in 101, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ponomarenko 1999 vs Kryshtal 1892
Ponomarenko
Correct
both rated, 107 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ponomarenko 100% vs Kryshtal 60%
Ponomarenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ponomarenko 100% vs Kryshtal 60%
Ponomarenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ponomarenko +5 · Kryshtal +1
Ponomarenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 92% — Strong (leans Ponomarenko) · live re-read · sealed at 92% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kryshtal form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (10%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPonomarenko 1.03 / Kryshtal 10.00
Signal prob.92% / 8%
Edge (Ponomarenko)+1.7pp
Setka Cup · #13116826
Ponomarenko1.03
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Won last 10
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite88% won 302 of 344
Up 2–0, closes it100% 197 of 198
Up 1–0, closes it95% 250 of 263
Kryshtal10.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog30% won 86 of 291
Down 0–1, comes back12% 22 of 183
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 129
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePonomarenko10wins
AwayKryshtal0wins
1 of 10 to a deciderPonomarenko leads 10–0, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePonomarenko100%9 of 9
AwayKryshtaln = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ponomarenko9Kryshtal1n = 10Ponomarenko took 9 of 10
S2Ponomarenko8Kryshtal2n = 10Ponomarenko took 8 of 10
S3Ponomarenko7Kryshtal3n = 10Ponomarenko took 7 of 10
S4Ponomarenko5Kryshtal0n = 5Ponomarenko took 5 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPonomarenkoKryshtalP − KBasisWins100+10in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match37.726.5+11.2per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPonomarenkoKryshtalBasisWin rate · lifetime789 / 875 vs 327 / 75190.2%43.5%789 / 875 vs 327 / 751Avg sets wonper match2.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PonomarenkoPonomarenko 1.03/Kryshtal 10.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
92.4%
Ponomarenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Ponomarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 29 · 14:00S. Ponomarenko—1111113D. Kryshtal—5570
WJul 28 · 10:38S. Ponomarenko—1311113D. Kryshtal—11670
WJul 28 · 08:00S. Ponomarenko—1111113D. Kryshtal—7870
WJul 27 · 17:29S. Ponomarenko—911811113D. Kryshtal—11811962
WJul 27 · 14:00S. Ponomarenko—11811113D. Kryshtal—911551
WJul 24 · 08:00S. Ponomarenko—11611113D. Kryshtal—211771
WJul 23 · 13:00S. Ponomarenko—13119113D. Kryshtal—1141161
WJul 22 · 05:00S. Ponomarenko—1111123D. Kryshtal—78100
WJul 21 · 17:29S. Ponomarenko—11112113D. Kryshtal—631181
WJul 21 · 15:00S. Ponomarenko—1111113D. Kryshtal—7350
S. Ponomarenko10
WSep 12 · 10:29D. Kryshtal7.0012711442S. Ponomarenko1.081011311113WSep 12 · 08:30S. Ponomarenko1.1711911113R. Horokh4.50811861WSep 12 · 07:00S. Ponomarenko1.0311114113S. Kushnirenko10.00631141WSep 12 · 06:00S. Ponomarenko1.051111113V. Komar8.504770WSep 9 · 17:29S. Ponomarenko1.20118711113R. Horokh4.3361111872WSep 9 · 16:00V. Komar8.505131061S. Ponomarenko1.05111112113WSep 9 · 14:30D. Kryshtal9.0011711172S. Ponomarenko1.04911115113WSep 9 · 13:00S. Kushnirenko10.005660S. Ponomarenko1.031111113WSep 9 · 12:00R. Horokh4.50761181S. Ponomarenko1.1711116113WSep 3 · 19:25S. Ponomarenko1.01111112123E. Rubtsov12.008714101
D. Kryshtal10
LSep 12 · 10:29D. Kryshtal7.0012711442S. Ponomarenko1.081011311113WSep 12 · 08:00D. Kryshtal1.671111113S. Kushnirenko2.108670LSep 12 · 06:30D. Kryshtal2.63117861R. Horokh1.4451111113WSep 12 · 05:00D. Kryshtal1.501111113V. Komar2.505650WSep 11 · 17:29D. Kryshtal1.611112118113S. Kushnirenko2.2051431182LSep 11 · 15:30S. Kushnirenko2.1013815123D. Kryshtal1.67111113101LSep 11 · 14:30D. Kryshtal2.20491151S. Balabei1.6111114113WSep 11 · 13:30R. Horokh1.5011771182D. Kryshtal2.50511112113LSep 11 · 12:30D. Kryshtal1.57119891V. Komar2.2591111113LSep 9 · 14:30D. Kryshtal9.0011711172S. Ponomarenko1.04911115113
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