TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13116757
Played Sep 12Finished
Serhii Ponomarenko
Home
1.03
At publish
Won last 9Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 9
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116113411114––
Serhii Kushnirenko
Away
10.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:45 and never touched — 92.4% is still 92.4%
Graded at full timeSerhii Ponomarenko to win
92.4%
92.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Ponomarenko above · Serhii Kushnirenko below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 61 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Serhii Ponomarenko at 92.4%
61 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Ponomarenko 56–1 Serhii Kushnirenko Serhii Kushnirenko has won 1 of their 57 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:45What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.03 (91%)
Ponomarenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
56-1 in 57
Ponomarenko
Correct
gap of 55 in 57, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ponomarenko 1987 vs Kushnirenko 1891
Ponomarenko
Correct
both rated, 96 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ponomarenko 100% vs Kushnirenko 60%
Ponomarenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ponomarenko 90% vs Kushnirenko 40%
Ponomarenko
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ponomarenko +5 · Kushnirenko +1
Ponomarenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 92% — Strong (leans Ponomarenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kushnirenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (10%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPonomarenko 1.03 / Kushnirenko 10.00
Signal prob.92% / 8%
Edge (Ponomarenko)+1.7pp
Setka Cup · #13116757
Ponomarenko1.03
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 9
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite88% won 302 of 344
Up 2–0, closes it100% 197 of 198
Up 1–0, closes it95% 250 of 263
Kushnirenko10.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 129 of 388
Down 0–1, comes back18% 43 of 235
Down 0–2, comes back5% 7 of 129
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePonomarenko9wins
AwayKushnirenko1wins
1 of 10 to a deciderPonomarenko leads 9–1, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePonomarenko85.7%6 of 7
AwayKushnirenko0%0 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ponomarenko7Kushnirenko3n = 10Ponomarenko took 7 of 10
S2Ponomarenko10Kushnirenko0n = 10Ponomarenko took 10 of 10
S3Ponomarenko9Kushnirenko1n = 10Ponomarenko took 9 of 10
S4Ponomarenko3Kushnirenko1n = 4Ponomarenko took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home660%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPonomarenkoKushnirenkoP − KBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match36.624.4+12.2per matchSweeps60+63–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPonomarenkoKushnirenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime788 / 874 vs 321 / 77590.2%41.4%788 / 874 vs 321 / 775Avg sets wonper match2.81.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.335.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PonomarenkoPonomarenko 1.03/Kushnirenko 10.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
92.4%
Ponomarenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Ponomarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 9 · 13:00S. Ponomarenko—1111113S. Kushnirenko—5660
WJul 29 · 12:30S. Ponomarenko—1111113S. Kushnirenko—1620
LJul 28 · 05:30S. Ponomarenko—11117752S. Kushnirenko—771111113
WJul 27 · 15:00S. Ponomarenko—71111113S. Kushnirenko—115991
WJul 22 · 07:30S. Ponomarenko—81111113S. Kushnirenko—117321
WJul 21 · 12:30S. Ponomarenko—1111113S. Kushnirenko—2650
WJul 18 · 10:38S. Ponomarenko—1311113S. Kushnirenko—11520
WJul 18 · 07:00S. Ponomarenko—1114113S. Kushnirenko—31290
WJul 17 · 08:30S. Ponomarenko—61111113S. Kushnirenko—116691
WJul 15 · 08:30S. Ponomarenko—1212113S. Kushnirenko—101070
S. Ponomarenko10
WSep 12 · 06:00S. Ponomarenko1.051111113V. Komar8.504770WSep 9 · 17:29S. Ponomarenko1.20118711113R. Horokh4.3361111872WSep 9 · 16:00V. Komar8.505131061S. Ponomarenko1.05111112113WSep 9 · 14:30D. Kryshtal9.0011711172S. Ponomarenko1.04911115113WSep 9 · 13:00S. Kushnirenko10.005660S. Ponomarenko1.031111113WSep 9 · 12:00R. Horokh4.50761181S. Ponomarenko1.1711116113WSep 3 · 19:25S. Ponomarenko1.01111112123E. Rubtsov12.008714101WSep 3 · 17:55S. Ponomarenko1.20113911113P. Plakushchyi4.3351111672WSep 3 · 16:25S. Ponomarenko1.041114113O. Kovalchuk9.0071270LSep 3 · 14:55S. Ponomarenko2.008580M. Makienko1.731111113
S. Kushnirenko10
WSep 12 · 05:30R. Horokh1.506111081S. Kushnirenko2.5011712113LSep 11 · 17:29D. Kryshtal1.611112118113S. Kushnirenko2.2051431182WSep 11 · 16:30S. Kushnirenko2.50141011113R. Horokh1.501212781WSep 11 · 15:30S. Kushnirenko2.1013815123D. Kryshtal1.67111113101LSep 11 · 14:00S. Kushnirenko2.10111011442V. Komar1.67712911113LSep 11 · 13:00S. Kushnirenko3.40611731S. Balabei1.3011711113WSep 9 · 16:30S. Kushnirenko2.6311211113R. Horokh1.44911381LSep 9 · 15:30S. Kushnirenko2.109690D. Kryshtal1.671111113LSep 9 · 14:00S. Kushnirenko2.1081151362V. Komar1.671161111113LSep 9 · 13:00S. Kushnirenko10.005660S. Ponomarenko1.031111113
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