TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111306
Played Sep 11Finished
Serhii Kushnirenko
Home
3.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611117711311––
Serhii Balabei
Away
1.30
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:57 and never touched — 78.6% is still 78.6%
Graded at full timeSerhii Balabei to win
78.6%
78.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Kushnirenko above · Serhii Balabei below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 3-11
Point 67 set 4, 3-11 — our read held Serhii Balabei at 78.6%
67 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Kushnirenko 23–92 Serhii Balabei Serhii Kushnirenko has won 23 of their 115 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:57What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Balabei
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-92 in 115
Balabei
Correct
gap of 69 in 115, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kushnirenko 1883 vs Balabei 1949
Balabei
Correct
both rated, 66 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kushnirenko 40% vs Balabei 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kushnirenko 60% vs Balabei 40%
Kushnirenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kushnirenko +1 · Balabei -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Balabei) · live re-read · sealed at 79% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Balabei form (40%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKushnirenko 3.40 / Balabei 1.30
Signal prob.23% / 77%
Edge (Balabei)+4.3pp
Setka Cup · #13111306
Kushnirenko3.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 127 of 383
Down 0–1, comes back19% 43 of 233
Down 0–2, comes back5% 7 of 129
Balabei1.30
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite72% won 206 of 286
Up 2–0, closes it97% 102 of 105
Up 1–0, closes it88% 146 of 166
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKushnirenko3wins
AwayBalabei7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderBalabei leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKushnirenko66.7%2 of 3
AwayBalabei85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kushnirenko3Balabei7n = 10Balabei took 7 of 10
S2Kushnirenko3Balabei7n = 10Balabei took 7 of 10
S3Kushnirenko3Balabei7n = 10Balabei took 7 of 10
S4Kushnirenko2Balabei4n = 6Balabei took 4 of 6
S5Kushnirenko2Balabei1n = 3Kushnirenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricKushnirenkoBalabeiK − BBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match33.338.7−5.4per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKushnirenkoBalabeiBasisWin rate · lifetime321 / 777 vs 505 / 100141.3%50.5%321 / 777 vs 505 / 1001Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.736.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BalabeiKushnirenko 3.40/Balabei 1.30
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
76.6%
Balabei · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Balabei won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 26 · 07:00S. Kushnirenko—9480S. Balabei—1111113
LAug 25 · 16:30S. Kushnirenko—9450S. Balabei—1111113
WAug 22 · 12:30S. Kushnirenko—87111193S. Balabei—11117862
LAug 20 · 08:30S. Kushnirenko—4890S. Balabei—1111113
LAug 18 · 13:30S. Kushnirenko—841171S. Balabei—11115113
LAug 15 · 17:04S. Kushnirenko—11119772S. Balabei—781111113
LAug 15 · 16:00S. Kushnirenko—814751S. Balabei—11121173
LAug 13 · 08:30S. Kushnirenko—7780S. Balabei—1111113
WAug 12 · 12:30S. Kushnirenko—118125113S. Balabei—811101152
WAug 6 · 10:30S. Kushnirenko—171110113S. Balabei—1541291
S. Kushnirenko10
WSep 9 · 16:30S. Kushnirenko2.6311211113R. Horokh1.44911381LSep 9 · 15:30S. Kushnirenko2.109690D. Kryshtal1.671111113LSep 9 · 14:00S. Kushnirenko2.1081151362V. Komar1.671161111113LSep 9 · 13:00S. Kushnirenko10.005660S. Ponomarenko1.031111113WSep 8 · 17:29R. Horokh1.405890S. Kushnirenko2.751111113WSep 8 · 16:30S. Kushnirenko1.361111113S. Kiilo3.003690LSep 8 · 15:30S. Kushnirenko2.10121111362D. Kryshtal1.67149911113WSep 8 · 14:00S. Kushnirenko2.20811712113V. Komar1.61118111072WSep 8 · 13:00S. Kushnirenko2.7511115113R. Horokh1.40771161WSep 2 · 17:05S. Kushnirenko1.368111511113S. Kiilo3.00119131382
S. Balabei10
LSep 11 · 12:00R. Horokh1.801111113S. Balabei1.919750WAug 31 · 17:43S. Balabei1.501111153D. Kryshtal2.5096130LAug 31 · 16:30D. Kryshtal2.501110127133S. Balabei1.508121011112WAug 31 · 15:00S. Balabei1.441211113D. Yurkov2.6310670LAug 31 · 13:30S. Balabei1.3051191192S. Kushnirenko3.40116117113LAug 31 · 12:00S. Balabei2.00513111292R. Horokh1.731115610113LAug 29 · 10:35S. Ponomarenko1.071111113S. Balabei7.506690WAug 29 · 09:30S. Balabei1.67116145123V. Komar2.104111211102WAug 29 · 08:30S. Balabei2.0011611113R. Horokh1.73611771LAug 29 · 07:00S. Balabei7.0011111872S. Ponomarenko1.08116811113
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