TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111113
Played Sep 11Finished
Roman Horokh
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119117115––––
Serhii Balabei
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:15 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRoman Horokh to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRoman Horokh above · Serhii Balabei below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 54 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Roman Horokh at 54.0%
54 points played in total.
H2H Roman Horokh 210–118 Serhii Balabei Serhii Balabei has won 118 of their 328 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:15What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Horokh
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
210-118 in 328
Horokh
Correct
gap of 92 in 328, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Horokh 1983 vs Balabei 1949
Horokh
Correct
both rated, 34 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Horokh 40% vs Balabei 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Horokh 50% vs Balabei 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Horokh -2 · Balabei +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Horokh)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Balabei form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHorokh 1.80 / Balabei 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Horokh)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13111113
Horokh1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite65% won 294 of 451
Up 2–0, closes it96% 159 of 165
Up 1–0, closes it81% 226 of 279
Balabei1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog31% won 56 of 179
Down 0–1, comes back20% 24 of 118
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 64
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHorokh4wins
AwayBalabei6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderBalabei leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHorokh33.3%2 of 6
AwayBalabei50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Horokh6Balabei4n = 10Horokh took 6 of 10
S2Horokh3Balabei7n = 10Balabei took 7 of 10
S3Horokh5Balabei5n = 10split evenly
S4Horokh3Balabei4n = 7Balabei took 4 of 7
S5Horokh2Balabei3n = 5Balabei took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricHorokhBalabeiH − BBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.741.3−1.6per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHorokhBalabeiBasisWin rate · lifetime700 / 1245 vs 505 / 100156.2%50.5%700 / 1245 vs 505 / 1001Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.236.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HorokhHorokh 1.80/Balabei 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Horokh · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Horokh won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 21 · 12:00R. Horokh—7141211113S. Balabei—111610932
LAug 20 · 07:00R. Horokh—12831162S. Balabei—1011116113
WAug 18 · 17:00R. Horokh—1113113S. Balabei—61160
WAug 18 · 12:00R. Horokh—5111210113S. Balabei—114101282
LAug 13 · 10:30R. Horokh—11125952S. Balabei—9101111113
LAug 13 · 07:00R. Horokh—7990S. Balabei—1111113
WAug 12 · 16:00R. Horokh—11711113S. Balabei—911571
LAug 11 · 16:59R. Horokh—1311117142S. Balabei—1113511163
LAug 11 · 16:00R. Horokh—10760S. Balabei—1211113
LAug 6 · 09:00R. Horokh—1111551S. Balabei—51311113
R. Horokh10
LSep 11 · 13:30R. Horokh1.5011771182D. Kryshtal2.50511112113LSep 9 · 17:29S. Ponomarenko1.20118711113R. Horokh4.3361111872LSep 9 · 16:30S. Kushnirenko2.6311211113R. Horokh1.44911381WSep 9 · 15:00R. Horokh1.57791111113V. Komar2.2511117772WSep 9 · 13:30R. Horokh1.50111114113D. Kryshtal2.50971671LSep 9 · 12:00R. Horokh4.50761181S. Ponomarenko1.1711116113LSep 8 · 17:29R. Horokh1.405890S. Kushnirenko2.751111113WSep 8 · 16:00V. Komar2.25138771R. Horokh1.57111111113WSep 8 · 14:30D. Kryshtal2.50118391R. Horokh1.5091111113LSep 8 · 13:00S. Kushnirenko2.7511115113R. Horokh1.40771161
S. Balabei10
WSep 11 · 13:00S. Kushnirenko3.40611731S. Balabei1.3011711113WAug 31 · 17:43S. Balabei1.501111153D. Kryshtal2.5096130LAug 31 · 16:30D. Kryshtal2.501110127133S. Balabei1.508121011112WAug 31 · 15:00S. Balabei1.441211113D. Yurkov2.6310670LAug 31 · 13:30S. Balabei1.3051191192S. Kushnirenko3.40116117113LAug 31 · 12:00S. Balabei2.00513111292R. Horokh1.731115610113LAug 29 · 10:35S. Ponomarenko1.071111113S. Balabei7.506690WAug 29 · 09:30S. Balabei1.67116145123V. Komar2.104111211102WAug 29 · 08:30S. Balabei2.0011611113R. Horokh1.73611771LAug 29 · 07:00S. Balabei7.0011111872S. Ponomarenko1.08116811113
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