TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100625
Played Sep 9Finished
Roman Horokh
Home
4.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711611116811––
Serhii Ponomarenko
Away
1.17
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:22 and never touched — 78.5% is still 78.5%
Graded at full timeSerhii Ponomarenko to win
78.5%
78.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRoman Horokh above · Serhii Ponomarenko below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 71 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Serhii Ponomarenko at 78.5%
71 points played in total.
H2H Roman Horokh 36–261 Serhii Ponomarenko Roman Horokh has won 36 of their 297 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:22What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.17 (79%)
Ponomarenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
36-261 in 297
Ponomarenko
Correct
gap of 225 in 297, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Horokh 1981 vs Ponomarenko 1910
Horokh
Wrong
both rated, 72 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Horokh 60% vs Ponomarenko 80%
Ponomarenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Horokh 70% vs Ponomarenko 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Horokh -1 · Ponomarenko +3
Ponomarenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Ponomarenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Horokh form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (22%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHorokh 4.50 / Ponomarenko 1.17
Signal prob.22% / 79%
Edge (Ponomarenko)-0.9pp
Setka Cup · #13100625
Horokh4.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog17% won 15 of 90
Down 0–1, comes back4% 2 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 46
Ponomarenko1.17
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite88% won 307 of 349
Up 2–0, closes it100% 202 of 203
Up 1–0, closes it95% 254 of 267
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHorokh1wins
AwayPonomarenko9wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPonomarenko leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHorokh0%0 of 3
AwayPonomarenko85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Horokh3Ponomarenko7n = 10Ponomarenko took 7 of 10
S2Horokh1Ponomarenko9n = 10Ponomarenko took 9 of 10
S3Horokh4Ponomarenko6n = 10Ponomarenko took 6 of 10
S4Horokh2Ponomarenko4n = 6Ponomarenko took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricHorokhPonomarenkoH − PBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match26.839.0−12.2per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHorokhPonomarenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime697 / 1240 vs 782 / 86856.2%90.1%697 / 1240 vs 782 / 868Avg sets wonper match2.12.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.238.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PonomarenkoHorokh 4.50/Ponomarenko 1.17
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
78.5%
Ponomarenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Ponomarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 17 · 10:30R. Horokh—761171S. Ponomarenko—11119113
LJul 17 · 07:00R. Horokh—11911262S. Ponomarenko—911911113
LJul 15 · 07:30R. Horokh—116101122S. Ponomarenko—511129113
LJul 14 · 17:10R. Horokh—4230S. Ponomarenko—1111113
LJul 14 · 16:00R. Horokh—118801S. Ponomarenko—81111113
LJul 10 · 09:00R. Horokh—6690S. Ponomarenko—1111113
WJun 25 · 09:30R. Horokh—11211113S. Ponomarenko—1110761
LJun 25 · 06:00R. Horokh—7760S. Ponomarenko—1111113
LJun 24 · 17:03R. Horokh—721141S. Ponomarenko—11115113
LJun 24 · 16:00R. Horokh—54130S. Ponomarenko—1111153
R. Horokh10
LSep 8 · 17:29R. Horokh1.405890S. Kushnirenko2.751111113WSep 8 · 16:00V. Komar2.25138771R. Horokh1.57111111113WSep 8 · 14:30D. Kryshtal2.50118391R. Horokh1.5091111113LSep 8 · 13:00S. Kushnirenko2.7511115113R. Horokh1.40771161WSep 8 · 12:00S. Kiilo5.0011961162R. Horokh1.14911118113WSep 2 · 17:33R. Horokh1.501111113D. Kryshtal2.506760WSep 2 · 16:00M. Levytskii6.5079111152R. Horokh1.10111157113LSep 2 · 14:30S. Kushnirenko2.751011811113R. Horokh1.4012511572WSep 2 · 13:00D. Kryshtal2.25101190R. Horokh1.571213113WSep 2 · 12:00S. Kiilo5.00141111952R. Horokh1.14167711113
S. Ponomarenko10
WSep 3 · 19:25S. Ponomarenko1.01111112123E. Rubtsov12.008714101WSep 3 · 17:55S. Ponomarenko1.20113911113P. Plakushchyi4.3351111672WSep 3 · 16:25S. Ponomarenko1.041114113O. Kovalchuk9.0071270LSep 3 · 14:55S. Ponomarenko2.008580M. Makienko1.731111113WSep 3 · 13:25S. Ponomarenko1.101111113O. Mishchenko6.508880LSep 3 · 04:25O. Mishchenko7.0011114113S. Ponomarenko1.08981171WSep 3 · 02:55S. Ponomarenko1.03811611113O. Kovalchuk10.0011611692WSep 3 · 24:55P. Plakushchyi3.751110981S. Ponomarenko1.2551211113WSep 2 · 22:55E. Rubtsov11.009290S. Ponomarenko1.021111113LSep 2 · 21:55V. Kovalenko6.0011128123S. Ponomarenko1.1181011101
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