TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13105452
Played Sep 9Finished
Serhii Ponomarenko
Home
1.20
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 7
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
116811711118117
Roman Horokh
Away
4.33
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
How it is goingSerhii Ponomarenko above · Roman Horokh below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 91 set 5, 11-7
91 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Ponomarenko 261–36 Roman Horokh Roman Horokh has won 36 of their 297 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Ponomarenko beat Horokh 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 82% — Strong (leans Ponomarenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Horokh form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (23%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPonomarenko 1.20 / Horokh 4.33
Signal prob.82% / 18%
Edge (Ponomarenko)+3.5pp
Setka Cup · #13105452
Ponomarenko1.20
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 7
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite88% won 307 of 349
Up 2–0, closes it100% 202 of 203
Up 1–0, closes it95% 254 of 267
Horokh4.33
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog17% won 15 of 90
Down 0–1, comes back4% 2 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePonomarenko9wins
AwayHorokh1wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPonomarenko leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePonomarenko85.7%6 of 7
AwayHorokh0%0 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ponomarenko7Horokh3n = 10Ponomarenko took 7 of 10
S2Ponomarenko9Horokh1n = 10Ponomarenko took 9 of 10
S3Ponomarenko6Horokh4n = 10Ponomarenko took 6 of 10
S4Ponomarenko4Horokh2n = 6Ponomarenko took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPonomarenkoHorokhP − HBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.026.8+12.2per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPonomarenkoHorokhBasisWin rate · lifetime785 / 871 vs 699 / 124390.1%56.2%785 / 871 vs 699 / 1243Avg sets wonper match2.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PonomarenkoPonomarenko 1.20/Horokh 4.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
81.8%
Ponomarenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Ponomarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 17 · 10:30S. Ponomarenko—11119113R. Horokh—761171
WJul 17 · 07:00S. Ponomarenko—911911113R. Horokh—11911262
WJul 15 · 07:30S. Ponomarenko—511129113R. Horokh—116101122
WJul 14 · 17:10S. Ponomarenko—1111113R. Horokh—4230
WJul 14 · 16:00S. Ponomarenko—81111113R. Horokh—118801
WJul 10 · 09:00S. Ponomarenko—1111113R. Horokh—6690
LJun 25 · 09:30S. Ponomarenko—1110761R. Horokh—11211113
WJun 25 · 06:00S. Ponomarenko—1111113R. Horokh—7760
WJun 24 · 17:03S. Ponomarenko—11115113R. Horokh—721141
WJun 24 · 16:00S. Ponomarenko—1111153R. Horokh—54130
S. Ponomarenko10
WSep 9 · 16:00V. Komar8.505131061S. Ponomarenko1.05111112113WSep 9 · 14:30D. Kryshtal9.0011711172S. Ponomarenko1.04911115113WSep 9 · 13:00S. Kushnirenko10.005660S. Ponomarenko1.031111113WSep 9 · 12:00R. Horokh4.50761181S. Ponomarenko1.1711116113WSep 3 · 19:25S. Ponomarenko1.01111112123E. Rubtsov12.008714101WSep 3 · 17:55S. Ponomarenko1.20113911113P. Plakushchyi4.3351111672WSep 3 · 16:25S. Ponomarenko1.041114113O. Kovalchuk9.0071270LSep 3 · 14:55S. Ponomarenko2.008580M. Makienko1.731111113WSep 3 · 13:25S. Ponomarenko1.101111113O. Mishchenko6.508880LSep 3 · 04:25O. Mishchenko7.0011114113S. Ponomarenko1.08981171
R. Horokh10
LSep 9 · 16:30S. Kushnirenko2.6311211113R. Horokh1.44911381WSep 9 · 15:00R. Horokh1.57791111113V. Komar2.2511117772WSep 9 · 13:30R. Horokh1.50111114113D. Kryshtal2.50971671LSep 9 · 12:00R. Horokh4.50761181S. Ponomarenko1.1711116113LSep 8 · 17:29R. Horokh1.405890S. Kushnirenko2.751111113WSep 8 · 16:00V. Komar2.25138771R. Horokh1.57111111113WSep 8 · 14:30D. Kryshtal2.50118391R. Horokh1.5091111113LSep 8 · 13:00S. Kushnirenko2.7511115113R. Horokh1.40771161WSep 8 · 12:00S. Kiilo5.0011961162R. Horokh1.14911118113WSep 2 · 17:33R. Horokh1.501111113D. Kryshtal2.506760
Upcoming Matches
S. Ponomarenko
Nothing scheduled
R. Horokh
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