TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100693
Played Sep 9Finished
Vadim Komar
Home
8.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
51113111012611––
Serhii Ponomarenko
Away
1.05
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:11 and never touched — 91.4% is still 91.4%
Graded at full timeSerhii Ponomarenko to win
91.4%
91.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVadim Komar above · Serhii Ponomarenko below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 79 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Serhii Ponomarenko at 91.4%
79 points played in total.
H2H Vadim Komar 7–133 Serhii Ponomarenko Vadim Komar has won 7 of their 140 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:11What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.05 (89%)
Ponomarenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-133 in 140
Ponomarenko
Correct
gap of 126 in 140, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Komar 1829 vs Ponomarenko 1939
Ponomarenko
Correct
both rated, 111 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Komar 40% vs Ponomarenko 100%
Ponomarenko
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Komar 30% vs Ponomarenko 80%
Ponomarenko
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Komar -1 · Ponomarenko +5
Ponomarenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 91% — Strong (leans Ponomarenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Komar form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (12%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKomar 8.50 / Ponomarenko 1.05
Signal prob.9% / 91%
Edge (Ponomarenko)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13100693
Komar8.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 54 of 124
Down 0–1, comes back26% 19 of 73
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 44
Ponomarenko1.05
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite88% won 307 of 349
Up 2–0, closes it100% 202 of 203
Up 1–0, closes it95% 254 of 267
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKomar1wins
AwayPonomarenko9wins
1 of 10 to a deciderPonomarenko leads 9–1, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKomar33.3%1 of 3
AwayPonomarenko100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Komar3Ponomarenko7n = 10Ponomarenko took 7 of 10
S2Komar0Ponomarenko10n = 10Ponomarenko took 10 of 10
S3Komar2Ponomarenko8n = 10Ponomarenko took 8 of 10
S4Komar0Ponomarenko4n = 4Ponomarenko took 4 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away660%
These 10 meetings
MetricKomarPonomarenkoK − PBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match24.237.2−13.0per matchSweeps06−63–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKomarPonomarenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime238 / 617 vs 784 / 87038.6%90.1%238 / 617 vs 784 / 870Avg sets wonper match1.72.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.138.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PonomarenkoKomar 8.50/Ponomarenko 1.05
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
91.4%
Ponomarenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Ponomarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 20 · 09:30V. Komar—115115133S. Ponomarenko—711711112
LJun 18 · 10:29V. Komar—9580S. Ponomarenko—1111113
LJun 18 · 08:00V. Komar—7370S. Ponomarenko—1111113
LJun 2 · 10:38V. Komar—115761S. Ponomarenko—81111113
LJun 2 · 08:00V. Komar—1257101S. Ponomarenko—101111123
LJun 1 · 17:07V. Komar—6480S. Ponomarenko—1111113
LJun 1 · 16:00V. Komar—4640S. Ponomarenko—1111113
LMay 23 · 16:00V. Komar—391191S. Ponomarenko—11119113
LMar 13 · 13:30V. Komar—5590S. Ponomarenko—1111113
LMar 10 · 17:30V. Komar—1920S. Ponomarenko—1111113
V. Komar10
LSep 9 · 15:00R. Horokh1.57791111113V. Komar2.2511117772WSep 9 · 14:00S. Kushnirenko2.1081151362V. Komar1.671161111113WSep 9 · 12:30D. Kryshtal1.5711811692V. Komar2.25511511113LSep 8 · 16:00V. Komar2.25138771R. Horokh1.57111111113LSep 8 · 15:00S. Kiilo3.25611118123V. Komar1.33116911102LSep 8 · 14:00S. Kushnirenko2.20811712113V. Komar1.61118111072WSep 8 · 12:30D. Kryshtal1.571211111052V. Komar2.251013612113LAug 29 · 09:30S. Balabei1.67116145123V. Komar2.104111211102LAug 29 · 08:00V. Komar8.506540S. Ponomarenko1.051111113LAug 29 · 06:30V. Komar2.389611141R. Horokh1.5311115163
S. Ponomarenko10
WSep 9 · 14:30D. Kryshtal9.0011711172S. Ponomarenko1.04911115113WSep 9 · 13:00S. Kushnirenko10.005660S. Ponomarenko1.031111113WSep 9 · 12:00R. Horokh4.50761181S. Ponomarenko1.1711116113WSep 3 · 19:25S. Ponomarenko1.01111112123E. Rubtsov12.008714101WSep 3 · 17:55S. Ponomarenko1.20113911113P. Plakushchyi4.3351111672WSep 3 · 16:25S. Ponomarenko1.041114113O. Kovalchuk9.0071270LSep 3 · 14:55S. Ponomarenko2.008580M. Makienko1.731111113WSep 3 · 13:25S. Ponomarenko1.101111113O. Mishchenko6.508880LSep 3 · 04:25O. Mishchenko7.0011114113S. Ponomarenko1.08981171WAug 29 · 08:00V. Komar8.506540S. Ponomarenko1.051111113
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