TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13094648
Played Sep 8Finished
Serhii Kiilo
Home
3.25
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
6111161198111210
Vadim Komar
Away
1.33
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:52 and never touched — 72.5% is still 72.5%
Graded at full timeVadim Komar to win
72.5%
72.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSerhii Kiilo above · Vadim Komar below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 95 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Vadim Komar at 72.5%
95 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Kiilo 10–41 Vadim Komar Serhii Kiilo has won 10 of their 51 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:52What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Komar
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-41 in 51
Komar
Wrong
gap of 31 in 51, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kiilo 1734 vs Komar 1828
Komar
Wrong
both rated, 94 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kiilo 20% vs Komar 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kiilo 40% vs Komar 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kiilo -4 · Komar -1
Kiilo
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Komar)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Komar form (20%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKiilo 3.25 / Komar 1.33
Signal prob.28% / 73%
Edge (Komar)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13094648
Kiilo3.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog19% won 30 of 161
Down 0–1, comes back12% 15 of 125
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 79
Komar1.33
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite64% won 33 of 52
Up 2–0, closes it100% 16 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it77% 23 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKiilo4wins
AwayKomar6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKomar leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKiilo75%3 of 4
AwayKomar83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kiilo4Komar6n = 10Komar took 6 of 10
S2Kiilo5Komar5n = 10split evenly
S3Kiilo5Komar5n = 10split evenly
S4Kiilo3Komar4n = 7Komar took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKiiloKomarKiilo − KomarBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.636.8−1.2per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKiiloKomarBasisWin rate · lifetime97 / 364 vs 238 / 61526.7%38.7%97 / 364 vs 238 / 615Avg sets wonper match1.41.7per matchAvg pointsper match34.636.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KomarKiilo 3.25/Komar 1.33
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
72.5%
Komar · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kiilo won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 8 · 14:00S. Kiilo—11811113V. Komar—611761
LAug 3 · 16:00S. Kiilo—5111151V. Komar—11913113
WJul 30 · 15:30S. Kiilo—9111413113V. Komar—117161192
LJun 2 · 06:30S. Kiilo—981141V. Komar—11115113
LMay 16 · 17:14S. Kiilo—461181V. Komar—11116113
LMay 16 · 14:30S. Kiilo—11981172V. Komar—411117103
WMar 2 · 08:30S. Kiilo—1211113V. Komar—10860
WFeb 28 · 17:30S. Kiilo—111193V. Komar—7480
LDec 3 · 10:30S. Kiilo—3111051V. Komar—11912113
LNov 26 · 07:30S. Kiilo—10770V. Komar—1211113
S. Kiilo10
LSep 8 · 13:30S. Kiilo3.75117311D. Kryshtal1.2571111113LSep 8 · 12:00S. Kiilo5.0011961162R. Horokh1.14911118113LSep 2 · 17:05S. Kushnirenko1.368111511113S. Kiilo3.00119131382LSep 2 · 16:30D. Kryshtal1.2512912113S. Kiilo3.7510111021WSep 2 · 15:00S. Kiilo1.611111113M. Levytskii2.208780WSep 2 · 13:30S. Kiilo3.251211113S. Kushnirenko1.3310880LSep 2 · 12:00S. Kiilo5.00141111952R. Horokh1.14167711113WAug 19 · 17:03S. Kiilo3.401181113113S. Kushnirenko1.3071171562LAug 19 · 16:00S. Kiilo5.0051080R. Horokh1.141112113WAug 19 · 15:00D. Kryshtal1.2271161152S. Kiilo4.00117114113
V. Komar10
LSep 8 · 14:00S. Kushnirenko2.20811712113V. Komar1.61118111072WSep 8 · 12:30D. Kryshtal1.571211111052V. Komar2.251013612113LAug 29 · 09:30S. Balabei1.67116145123V. Komar2.104111211102LAug 29 · 08:00V. Komar8.506540S. Ponomarenko1.051111113LAug 29 · 06:30V. Komar2.389611141R. Horokh1.5311115163LAug 29 · 05:00V. Komar2.25581121D. Kryshtal1.5711118113WAug 28 · 17:19D. Kryshtal1.678760V. Komar2.081111113LAug 28 · 16:30V. Komar2.38611101192R. Horokh1.53118126113LAug 28 · 15:30V. Komar2.251151011112D. Kryshtal1.57911125133WAug 28 · 14:00V. Komar2.00111129113S. Balabei1.73119101142
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