TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13094646
Played Sep 8Finished
Serhii Kiilo
Home
3.75
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
117711311111––
Dmytro Kryshtal
Away
1.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:57 and never touched — 77.4% is still 77.4%
Graded at full timeDmytro Kryshtal to win
77.4%
77.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Kiilo above · Dmytro Kryshtal below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 1-11
Point 62 set 4, 1-11 — our read held Dmytro Kryshtal at 77.4%
62 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Kiilo 7–25 Dmytro Kryshtal Serhii Kiilo has won 7 of their 32 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:57What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Kryshtal
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-25 in 32
Kryshtal
Correct
gap of 18 in 32, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kiilo 1742 vs Kryshtal 1886
Kryshtal
Correct
both rated, 144 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kiilo 40% vs Kryshtal 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kiilo 50% vs Kryshtal 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kiilo -3 · Kryshtal -2
Kiilo
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Kryshtal) · live re-read · sealed at 77% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kryshtal form (40%) is below what odds imply (80%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKiilo 3.75 / Kryshtal 1.25
Signal prob.23% / 77%
Edge (Kryshtal)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13094646
Kiilo3.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog19% won 30 of 161
Down 0–1, comes back12% 15 of 125
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 79
Kryshtal1.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 152 of 264
Up 2–0, closes it94% 84 of 89
Up 1–0, closes it76% 118 of 156
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKiilo3wins
AwayKryshtal7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKryshtal leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKiilon = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayKryshtal66.7%6 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kiilo1Kryshtal9n = 10Kryshtal took 9 of 10
S2Kiilo3Kryshtal7n = 10Kryshtal took 7 of 10
S3Kiilo4Kryshtal6n = 10Kryshtal took 6 of 10
S4Kiilo2Kryshtal4n = 6Kryshtal took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricKiiloKryshtalKiilo − KryshtalBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match31.938.6−6.7per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKiiloKryshtalBasisWin rate · lifetime97 / 364 vs 318 / 73426.7%43.3%97 / 364 vs 318 / 734Avg sets wonper match1.41.9per matchAvg pointsper match34.637.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KryshtalKiilo 3.75/Kryshtal 1.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
76.6%
Kryshtal · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kryshtal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 11 · 16:30S. Kiilo—4510D. Kryshtal—1111113
LAug 8 · 15:30S. Kiilo—149100D. Kryshtal—1611123
LAug 3 · 13:00S. Kiilo—6630D. Kryshtal—1111113
WJul 30 · 13:30S. Kiilo—9111110113D. Kryshtal—11671292
LJul 24 · 06:30S. Kiilo—11980D. Kryshtal—1311113
LJul 16 · 16:59S. Kiilo—116261D. Kryshtal—81111113
WJul 16 · 14:30S. Kiilo—731111123D. Kryshtal—111187102
WJul 6 · 13:00S. Kiilo—71111113D. Kryshtal—119571
LJul 2 · 13:30S. Kiilo—791181D. Kryshtal—11119113
LJun 10 · 12:30S. Kiilo—10116101D. Kryshtal—12411123
S. Kiilo10
LSep 8 · 12:00S. Kiilo5.0011961162R. Horokh1.14911118113LSep 2 · 17:05S. Kushnirenko1.368111511113S. Kiilo3.00119131382LSep 2 · 16:30D. Kryshtal1.2512912113S. Kiilo3.7510111021WSep 2 · 15:00S. Kiilo1.611111113M. Levytskii2.208780WSep 2 · 13:30S. Kiilo3.251211113S. Kushnirenko1.3310880LSep 2 · 12:00S. Kiilo5.00141111952R. Horokh1.14167711113WAug 19 · 17:03S. Kiilo3.401181113113S. Kushnirenko1.3071171562LAug 19 · 16:00S. Kiilo5.0051080R. Horokh1.141112113WAug 19 · 15:00D. Kryshtal1.2271161152S. Kiilo4.00117114113WAug 19 · 14:00V. Komar1.281110961S. Kiilo3.5031211113
D. Kryshtal10
LSep 8 · 14:30D. Kryshtal2.50118391R. Horokh1.5091111113LSep 8 · 12:30D. Kryshtal1.571211111052V. Komar2.251013612113LSep 2 · 17:33R. Horokh1.501111113D. Kryshtal2.506760WSep 2 · 16:30D. Kryshtal1.2512912113S. Kiilo3.7510111021WSep 2 · 15:30D. Kryshtal1.6111119153S. Kushnirenko2.208611131LSep 2 · 14:00D. Kryshtal1.5312119882M. Levytskii2.381071111113LSep 2 · 13:00D. Kryshtal2.25101190R. Horokh1.571213113LAug 31 · 17:43S. Balabei1.501111153D. Kryshtal2.5096130WAug 31 · 16:30D. Kryshtal2.501110127133S. Balabei1.508121011112LAug 19 · 15:00D. Kryshtal1.2271161152S. Kiilo4.00117114113
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