TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100466
Played Sep 9Finished
Serhii Kushnirenko
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8111165111311611
Vadim Komar
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:16 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVadim Komar to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Kushnirenko above · Vadim Komar below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 93 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Vadim Komar at 54.0%
93 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Kushnirenko 15–23 Vadim Komar Serhii Kushnirenko has won 15 of their 38 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:16What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Komar
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-23 in 38
Komar
Correct
gap of 8 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kushnirenko 1883 vs Komar 1809
Kushnirenko
Wrong
both rated, 74 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kushnirenko 60% vs Komar 40%
Kushnirenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kushnirenko 60% vs Komar 30%
Kushnirenko
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kushnirenko -1 · Komar +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Komar)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Komar form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKushnirenko 2.10 / Komar 1.67
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Komar)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13100466
Kushnirenko2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog33% won 126 of 379
Down 0–1, comes back19% 43 of 230
Down 0–2, comes back6% 7 of 127
Komar1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 33 of 54
Up 2–0, closes it100% 16 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it72% 23 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKushnirenko4wins
AwayKomar6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKomar leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKushnirenko50%3 of 6
AwayKomar75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kushnirenko6Komar4n = 10Kushnirenko took 6 of 10
S2Kushnirenko2Komar8n = 10Komar took 8 of 10
S3Kushnirenko3Komar7n = 10Komar took 7 of 10
S4Kushnirenko4Komar4n = 8split evenly
S5Kushnirenko2Komar1n = 3Kushnirenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKushnirenkoKomarKushnirenko − KomarBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.141.0−4.9per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKushnirenkoKomarBasisWin rate · lifetime321 / 777 vs 238 / 61941.3%38.5%321 / 777 vs 238 / 619Avg sets wonper match1.81.7per matchAvg pointsper match35.736.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KomarKushnirenko 2.10/Komar 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Komar · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Komar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 14:00S. Kushnirenko—81151362V. Komar—1161111113
WSep 8 · 14:00S. Kushnirenko—811712113V. Komar—118111072
WAug 26 · 06:00S. Kushnirenko—11511113V. Komar—611591
LAug 25 · 14:00S. Kushnirenko—116481V. Komar—51111113
WAug 23 · 06:00S. Kushnirenko—116117123V. Komar—911911102
LAug 22 · 17:34S. Kushnirenko—3830V. Komar—1111113
WAug 22 · 15:30S. Kushnirenko—11711123V. Komar—9111111
LAug 20 · 07:30S. Kushnirenko—76110V. Komar—1111133
LAug 19 · 15:30S. Kushnirenko—1491561V. Komar—121117113
LAug 16 · 06:00S. Kushnirenko—128661V. Komar—101111113
S. Kushnirenko10
WSep 9 · 16:30S. Kushnirenko2.6311211113R. Horokh1.44911381LSep 9 · 15:30S. Kushnirenko2.109690D. Kryshtal1.671111113LSep 9 · 13:00S. Kushnirenko10.005660S. Ponomarenko1.031111113WSep 8 · 17:29R. Horokh1.405890S. Kushnirenko2.751111113WSep 8 · 16:30S. Kushnirenko1.361111113S. Kiilo3.003690LSep 8 · 15:30S. Kushnirenko2.10121111362D. Kryshtal1.67149911113WSep 8 · 14:00S. Kushnirenko2.20811712113V. Komar1.61118111072WSep 8 · 13:00S. Kushnirenko2.7511115113R. Horokh1.40771161WSep 2 · 17:05S. Kushnirenko1.368111511113S. Kiilo3.00119131382LSep 2 · 15:30D. Kryshtal1.6111119153S. Kushnirenko2.208611131
V. Komar10
LSep 9 · 16:58V. Komar2.504740D. Kryshtal1.501111113LSep 9 · 16:00V. Komar8.505131061S. Ponomarenko1.05111112113LSep 9 · 15:00R. Horokh1.57791111113V. Komar2.2511117772WSep 9 · 12:30D. Kryshtal1.5711811692V. Komar2.25511511113LSep 8 · 16:00V. Komar2.25138771R. Horokh1.57111111113LSep 8 · 15:00S. Kiilo3.25611118123V. Komar1.33116911102LSep 8 · 14:00S. Kushnirenko2.20811712113V. Komar1.61118111072WSep 8 · 12:30D. Kryshtal1.571211111052V. Komar2.251013612113LAug 29 · 09:30S. Balabei1.67116145123V. Komar2.104111211102LAug 29 · 08:00V. Komar8.506540S. Ponomarenko1.051111113
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