TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13094912
Played Sep 8Finished
Serhii Kushnirenko
Home
1.36
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
113116119––––
Serhii Kiilo
Away
3.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:55 and never touched — 67.5% is still 67.5%
Graded at full timeSerhii Kushnirenko to win
67.5%
67.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Kushnirenko above · Serhii Kiilo below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 51 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Serhii Kushnirenko at 67.5%
51 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Kushnirenko 27–14 Serhii Kiilo Serhii Kiilo has won 14 of their 41 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:55What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Kushnirenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
27-14 in 41
Kushnirenko
Correct
gap of 13 in 41, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kushnirenko 1881 vs Kiilo 1749
Kushnirenko
Correct
both rated, 132 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kushnirenko 60% vs Kiilo 20%
Kushnirenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kushnirenko 70% vs Kiilo 40%
Kushnirenko
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kushnirenko -1 · Kiilo +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Strong (leans Kushnirenko) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kiilo form (20%) is below what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKushnirenko 1.36 / Kiilo 3.00
Signal prob.70% / 30%
Edge (Kushnirenko)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13094912
Kushnirenko1.36
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite78% won 46 of 59
Up 2–0, closes it89% 24 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it90% 34 of 38
Kiilo3.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog19% won 30 of 161
Down 0–1, comes back12% 15 of 125
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 79
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKushnirenko6wins
AwayKiilo4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKushnirenko leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKushnirenko100%5 of 5
AwayKiilo80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kushnirenko5Kiilo5n = 10split evenly
S2Kushnirenko4Kiilo6n = 10Kiilo took 6 of 10
S3Kushnirenko5Kiilo5n = 10split evenly
S4Kushnirenko7Kiilo0n = 7Kushnirenko took 7 of 7
S5Kushnirenko1Kiilo2n = 3Kiilo took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKushnirenkoKiiloKushnirenko − KiiloBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.436.8+2.6per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKushnirenkoKiiloBasisWin rate · lifetime318 / 771 vs 98 / 36441.3%26.9%318 / 771 vs 98 / 364Avg sets wonper match1.81.4per matchAvg pointsper match35.734.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KushnirenkoKushnirenko 1.36/Kiilo 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70%
Kushnirenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kushnirenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 2 · 13:30S. Kushnirenko—10880S. Kiilo—1211113
LAug 19 · 17:03S. Kushnirenko—71171562S. Kiilo—1181113113
WAug 19 · 12:30S. Kushnirenko—111011113S. Kiilo—712951
WAug 3 · 14:30S. Kushnirenko—12912113S. Kiilo—10111081
WAug 1 · 15:30S. Kushnirenko—11911113S. Kiilo—811741
WJul 6 · 17:14S. Kushnirenko—1114113S. Kiilo—21270
LJul 6 · 14:30S. Kushnirenko—71160S. Kiilo—1113113
WJul 2 · 15:30S. Kushnirenko—11118133S. Kiilo—8311111
WJun 30 · 15:30S. Kushnirenko—711511113S. Kiilo—11511572
LJun 29 · 15:00S. Kushnirenko—137111312S. Kiilo—1511211113
S. Kushnirenko10
WSep 8 · 17:29R. Horokh1.405890S. Kushnirenko2.751111113LSep 8 · 15:30S. Kushnirenko2.10121111362D. Kryshtal1.67149911113WSep 8 · 14:00S. Kushnirenko2.20811712113V. Komar1.61118111072WSep 8 · 13:00S. Kushnirenko2.7511115113R. Horokh1.40771161WSep 2 · 17:05S. Kushnirenko1.368111511113S. Kiilo3.00119131382LSep 2 · 15:30D. Kryshtal1.6111119153S. Kushnirenko2.208611131WSep 2 · 14:30S. Kushnirenko2.751011811113R. Horokh1.4012511572LSep 2 · 13:30S. Kiilo3.251211113S. Kushnirenko1.3310880WSep 2 · 12:30S. Kushnirenko1.251110313113M. Levytskii3.75712111142WAug 31 · 17:14R. Horokh1.402101191S. Kushnirenko2.7511127113
S. Kiilo10
LSep 8 · 17:14D. Kryshtal—11811113S. Kiilo—411571WSep 8 · 15:00S. Kiilo3.25611118123V. Komar1.33116911102LSep 8 · 13:30S. Kiilo3.75117311D. Kryshtal1.2571111113LSep 8 · 12:00S. Kiilo5.0011961162R. Horokh1.14911118113LSep 2 · 17:05S. Kushnirenko1.368111511113S. Kiilo3.00119131382LSep 2 · 16:30D. Kryshtal1.2512912113S. Kiilo3.7510111021WSep 2 · 15:00S. Kiilo1.611111113M. Levytskii2.208780WSep 2 · 13:30S. Kiilo3.251211113S. Kushnirenko1.3310880LSep 2 · 12:00S. Kiilo5.00141111952R. Horokh1.14167711113WAug 19 · 17:03S. Kiilo3.401181113113S. Kushnirenko1.3071171562
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