TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111460
Played Sep 11Finished
Serhii Kushnirenko
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
131181115131210––
Dmytro Kryshtal
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:43 and never touched — 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timeDmytro Kryshtal to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSerhii Kushnirenko above · Dmytro Kryshtal below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 15-13
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 93 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Dmytro Kryshtal at 56.6%
93 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Kushnirenko 37–50 Dmytro Kryshtal Serhii Kushnirenko has won 37 of their 87 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:43What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kryshtal
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
37-50 in 87
Kryshtal
Wrong
gap of 13 in 87, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kushnirenko 1861 vs Kryshtal 1886
Kryshtal
Wrong
both rated, 25 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kushnirenko 20% vs Kryshtal 60%
Kryshtal
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kushnirenko 40% vs Kryshtal 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kushnirenko -2 · Kryshtal -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Kryshtal)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kushnirenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKushnirenko 2.10 / Kryshtal 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Kryshtal)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13111460
Kushnirenko2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 127 of 383
Down 0–1, comes back19% 43 of 233
Down 0–2, comes back5% 7 of 129
Kryshtal1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 153 of 265
Up 2–0, closes it94% 84 of 89
Up 1–0, closes it75% 119 of 158
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKushnirenko5wins
AwayKryshtal5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKushnirenko33.3%2 of 6
AwayKryshtal25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kushnirenko6Kryshtal4n = 10Kushnirenko took 6 of 10
S2Kushnirenko4Kryshtal6n = 10Kryshtal took 6 of 10
S3Kushnirenko1Kryshtal9n = 10Kryshtal took 9 of 10
S4Kushnirenko3Kryshtal6n = 9Kryshtal took 6 of 9
S5Kushnirenko5Kryshtal0n = 5Kushnirenko took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKushnirenkoKryshtalKushnirenko − KryshtalBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.942.4−2.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKushnirenkoKryshtalBasisWin rate · lifetime318 / 773 vs 324 / 74641.1%43.4%318 / 773 vs 324 / 746Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.737.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KryshtalKushnirenko 2.10/Kryshtal 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.6%
Kryshtal · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kushnirenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 20 · 06:30S. Kushnirenko—1411115113D. Kryshtal—16871182
WAug 19 · 13:30S. Kushnirenko—1271111113D. Kryshtal—101113972
LAug 18 · 12:30S. Kushnirenko—4880D. Kryshtal—1111113
WAug 16 · 10:33S. Kushnirenko—1111611113D. Kryshtal—13611662
LAug 16 · 09:30S. Kushnirenko—1178111D. Kryshtal—61111133
WAug 15 · 12:30S. Kushnirenko—111189113D. Kryshtal—96111152
LAug 13 · 06:30S. Kushnirenko—115681D. Kryshtal—61111113
LAug 12 · 17:33S. Kushnirenko—139431D. Kryshtal—111111113
WAug 12 · 13:30S. Kushnirenko—911511133D. Kryshtal—114115112
LAug 9 · 09:30S. Kushnirenko—114871D. Kryshtal—81111113
S. Kushnirenko10
LSep 11 · 14:00S. Kushnirenko2.10111011442V. Komar1.67712911113LSep 11 · 13:00S. Kushnirenko3.40611731S. Balabei1.3011711113WSep 9 · 16:30S. Kushnirenko2.6311211113R. Horokh1.44911381LSep 9 · 15:30S. Kushnirenko2.109690D. Kryshtal1.671111113LSep 9 · 14:00S. Kushnirenko2.1081151362V. Komar1.671161111113LSep 9 · 13:00S. Kushnirenko10.005660S. Ponomarenko1.031111113WSep 8 · 17:29R. Horokh1.405890S. Kushnirenko2.751111113WSep 8 · 16:30S. Kushnirenko1.361111113S. Kiilo3.003690LSep 8 · 15:30S. Kushnirenko2.10121111362D. Kryshtal1.67149911113WSep 8 · 14:00S. Kushnirenko2.20811712113V. Komar1.61118111072
D. Kryshtal10
LSep 11 · 14:30D. Kryshtal2.20491151S. Balabei1.6111114113WSep 11 · 13:30R. Horokh1.5011771182D. Kryshtal2.50511112113LSep 11 · 12:30D. Kryshtal1.57119891V. Komar2.2591111113WSep 9 · 16:58V. Komar2.504740D. Kryshtal1.501111113WSep 9 · 15:30S. Kushnirenko2.109690D. Kryshtal1.671111113LSep 9 · 14:30D. Kryshtal9.0011711172S. Ponomarenko1.04911115113LSep 9 · 13:30R. Horokh1.50111114113D. Kryshtal2.50971671LSep 9 · 12:30D. Kryshtal1.5711811692V. Komar2.25511511113WSep 8 · 17:14D. Kryshtal—11811113S. Kiilo—411571WSep 8 · 15:30S. Kushnirenko2.10121111362D. Kryshtal1.67149911113
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