TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111801
Played Sep 11Finished
Dmytro Kryshtal
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
411911114511––
Serhii Balabei
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:43 and never touched — 62.8% is still 62.8%
Graded at full timeSerhii Balabei to win
62.8%
62.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDmytro Kryshtal above · Serhii Balabei below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 66 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Serhii Balabei at 62.8%
66 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Kryshtal 40–79 Serhii Balabei Dmytro Kryshtal has won 40 of their 119 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:43What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Balabei
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
40-79 in 119
Balabei
Correct
gap of 39 in 119, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kryshtal 1896 vs Balabei 1959
Balabei
Correct
both rated, 63 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kryshtal 60% vs Balabei 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kryshtal 50% vs Balabei 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kryshtal +1 · Balabei +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Balabei) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kryshtal form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKryshtal 2.20 / Balabei 1.61
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Balabei)+2.0pp
Setka Cup · #13111801
Kryshtal2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog29% won 85 of 292
Down 0–1, comes back11% 21 of 184
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 131
Balabei1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite72% won 206 of 286
Up 2–0, closes it97% 102 of 105
Up 1–0, closes it88% 146 of 166
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKryshtal4wins
AwayBalabei6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderBalabei leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKryshtal60%3 of 5
AwayBalabei80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kryshtal5Balabei5n = 10split evenly
S2Kryshtal3Balabei7n = 10Balabei took 7 of 10
S3Kryshtal5Balabei5n = 10split evenly
S4Kryshtal5Balabei3n = 8Kryshtal took 5 of 8
S5Kryshtal1Balabei3n = 4Balabei took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKryshtalBalabeiK − BBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.937.8+1.1per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKryshtalBalabeiBasisWin rate · lifetime324 / 745 vs 506 / 100143.5%50.6%324 / 745 vs 506 / 1001Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.236.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BalabeiKryshtal 2.20/Balabei 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.7%
Balabei · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Balabei won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 29 · 06:00D. Kryshtal—6711101S. Balabei—11113123
WAug 28 · 12:30D. Kryshtal—11211133S. Balabei—7114111
LAug 26 · 08:00D. Kryshtal—8790S. Balabei—1111113
WAug 25 · 13:30D. Kryshtal—81111113S. Balabei—118751
LAug 22 · 15:00D. Kryshtal—51250S. Balabei—111493
WAug 21 · 17:20D. Kryshtal—111311113S. Balabei—915291
LAug 21 · 13:30D. Kryshtal—91191182S. Balabei—114115113
LAug 20 · 09:30D. Kryshtal—11891182S. Balabei—911118113
WAug 18 · 15:00D. Kryshtal—119116113S. Balabei—51171142
LAug 15 · 14:30D. Kryshtal—11118752S. Balabei—97111173
D. Kryshtal10
WSep 11 · 13:30R. Horokh1.5011771182D. Kryshtal2.50511112113LSep 11 · 12:30D. Kryshtal1.57119891V. Komar2.2591111113WSep 9 · 16:58V. Komar2.504740D. Kryshtal1.501111113WSep 9 · 15:30S. Kushnirenko2.109690D. Kryshtal1.671111113LSep 9 · 14:30D. Kryshtal9.0011711172S. Ponomarenko1.04911115113LSep 9 · 13:30R. Horokh1.50111114113D. Kryshtal2.50971671LSep 9 · 12:30D. Kryshtal1.5711811692V. Komar2.25511511113WSep 8 · 17:14D. Kryshtal—11811113S. Kiilo—411571WSep 8 · 15:30S. Kushnirenko2.10121111362D. Kryshtal1.67149911113LSep 8 · 14:30D. Kryshtal2.50118391R. Horokh1.5091111113
S. Balabei10
WSep 11 · 13:00S. Kushnirenko3.40611731S. Balabei1.3011711113LSep 11 · 12:00R. Horokh1.801111113S. Balabei1.919750WAug 31 · 17:43S. Balabei1.501111153D. Kryshtal2.5096130LAug 31 · 16:30D. Kryshtal2.501110127133S. Balabei1.508121011112WAug 31 · 15:00S. Balabei1.441211113D. Yurkov2.6310670LAug 31 · 13:30S. Balabei1.3051191192S. Kushnirenko3.40116117113LAug 31 · 12:00S. Balabei2.00513111292R. Horokh1.731115610113LAug 29 · 10:35S. Ponomarenko1.071111113S. Balabei7.506690WAug 29 · 09:30S. Balabei1.67116145123V. Komar2.104111211102WAug 29 · 08:30S. Balabei2.0011611113R. Horokh1.73611771
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