TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13116944
Played Sep 12Finished
Serhii Ponomarenko
Home
1.05
At publish
Won last 8Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 8
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
114117117––––
Vadim Komar
Away
8.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:19 and never touched — 91.4% is still 91.4%
Graded at full timeSerhii Ponomarenko to win
91.4%
91.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Ponomarenko above · Vadim Komar below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 51 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Serhii Ponomarenko at 91.4%
51 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Ponomarenko 136–7 Vadim Komar Vadim Komar has won 7 of their 143 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:19What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.05 (89%)
Ponomarenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
136-7 in 143
Ponomarenko
Correct
gap of 129 in 143, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ponomarenko 1987 vs Komar 1827
Ponomarenko
Correct
both rated, 160 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ponomarenko 100% vs Komar 60%
Ponomarenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ponomarenko 90% vs Komar 50%
Ponomarenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ponomarenko +5 · Komar -2
Ponomarenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 91% — Strong (leans Ponomarenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Komar form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (12%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPonomarenko 1.05 / Komar 8.50
Signal prob.91% / 9%
Edge (Ponomarenko)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13116944
Ponomarenko1.05
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 8
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite88% won 302 of 344
Up 2–0, closes it100% 197 of 198
Up 1–0, closes it95% 250 of 263
Komar8.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 56 of 127
Down 0–1, comes back27% 20 of 75
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePonomarenko9wins
AwayKomar1wins
1 of 10 to a deciderPonomarenko leads 9–1, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePonomarenko100%7 of 7
AwayKomar33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ponomarenko7Komar3n = 10Ponomarenko took 7 of 10
S2Ponomarenko9Komar1n = 10Ponomarenko took 9 of 10
S3Ponomarenko9Komar1n = 10Ponomarenko took 9 of 10
S4Ponomarenko4Komar0n = 4Ponomarenko took 4 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home660%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPonomarenkoKomarP − KBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.525.4+12.1per matchSweeps60+63–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPonomarenkoKomarBasisWin rate · lifetime788 / 874 vs 242 / 62790.2%38.6%788 / 874 vs 242 / 627Avg sets wonper match2.81.7per matchAvg pointsper match38.336.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PonomarenkoPonomarenko 1.05/Komar 8.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
91.4%
Ponomarenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Ponomarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 12 · 06:00S. Ponomarenko—1111113V. Komar—4770
WSep 9 · 16:00S. Ponomarenko—111112113V. Komar—5131061
WAug 29 · 08:00S. Ponomarenko—1111113V. Komar—6540
WAug 28 · 13:00S. Ponomarenko—1111113V. Komar—9760
LJun 20 · 09:30S. Ponomarenko—711711112V. Komar—115115133
WJun 18 · 10:29S. Ponomarenko—1111113V. Komar—9580
WJun 18 · 08:00S. Ponomarenko—1111113V. Komar—7370
WJun 2 · 10:38S. Ponomarenko—81111113V. Komar—115761
WJun 2 · 08:00S. Ponomarenko—101111123V. Komar—1257101
WJun 1 · 17:07S. Ponomarenko—1111113V. Komar—6480
S. Ponomarenko10
WSep 12 · 07:00S. Ponomarenko1.0311114113S. Kushnirenko10.00631141WSep 9 · 17:29S. Ponomarenko1.20118711113R. Horokh4.3361111872WSep 9 · 16:00V. Komar8.505131061S. Ponomarenko1.05111112113WSep 9 · 14:30D. Kryshtal9.0011711172S. Ponomarenko1.04911115113WSep 9 · 13:00S. Kushnirenko10.005660S. Ponomarenko1.031111113WSep 9 · 12:00R. Horokh4.50761181S. Ponomarenko1.1711116113WSep 3 · 19:25S. Ponomarenko1.01111112123E. Rubtsov12.008714101WSep 3 · 17:55S. Ponomarenko1.20113911113P. Plakushchyi4.3351111672WSep 3 · 16:25S. Ponomarenko1.041114113O. Kovalchuk9.0071270LSep 3 · 14:55S. Ponomarenko2.008580M. Makienko1.731111113
V. Komar10
LSep 12 · 07:30R. Horokh1.40101111113V. Komar2.75127831LSep 12 · 05:00D. Kryshtal1.501111113V. Komar2.505650LSep 11 · 17:02S. Balabei1.361112411163V. Komar3.00314119142WSep 11 · 16:00V. Komar2.00118116123S. Balabei1.73811211102WSep 11 · 15:00R. Horokh1.5312116101V. Komar2.3814911123WSep 11 · 14:00S. Kushnirenko2.10111011442V. Komar1.67712911113WSep 11 · 12:30D. Kryshtal1.57119891V. Komar2.2591111113LSep 9 · 16:58V. Komar2.504740D. Kryshtal1.501111113LSep 9 · 16:00V. Komar8.505131061S. Ponomarenko1.05111112113LSep 9 · 15:00R. Horokh1.57791111113V. Komar2.2511117772
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