Serhii Balabei vs Vadim Komar 3-2

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka CupMatch #13116051

Played Sep 11Finished

Serhii Balabei

Home

1.36

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Lost last 1

Final

3 – 2

Set by set

11312144111191614

Vadim Komar

Away

3.00

At publish

Won last 4

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Won last 4

How it is goingSerhii Balabei above · Vadim Komar below

Set 1 · 11-3

Set 2 · 12-14

Set 3 · 4-11

Set 4 · 11-9

Set 5 · 16-14

Point 105 set 5, 16-14

105 points played in total.

H2H Serhii Balabei 80–76 Vadim Komar Vadim Komar has won 76 of their 156 meetings.

Last 10 · 6–4Same sideHead to head

Same-day rematch · 1h before this match

Komar beat Balabei 3-2.

Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.

Signal confidence: 70% — Clear lean (leans Balabei)

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Komar form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (33%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsBalabei 1.36 / Komar 3.00

Signal prob.70% / 30%

Edge (Balabei)+0.8pp

Setka Cup · #13116051

Balabei1.36

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As favourite72% won 206 of 286

Up 2–0, closes it97% 102 of 105

Up 1–0, closes it88% 146 of 166

Komar3.00

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Won last 4

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As underdog43% won 53 of 123

Down 0–1, comes back26% 19 of 73

Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 43

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeBalabei6wins

AwayKomar4wins

7 of 10 to a deciderBalabei leads 6–4, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeBalabei83.3%5 of 6

AwayKomar75%3 of 4

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Balabei6Komar4n = 10Balabei took 6 of 10

S2Balabei4Komar6n = 10Komar took 6 of 10

S3Balabei6Komar4n = 10Balabei took 6 of 10

S4Balabei4Komar3n = 7Balabei took 4 of 7

S5Balabei4Komar3n = 7Balabei took 4 of 7

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home220%

3–1Four sets, home00%

3–2Decider, home440%

2–3Decider, away330%

1–3Four sets, away00%

0–3Straight, away110%

These 10 meetings

MetricBalabeiKomarB − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match43.640.2+3.4per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricBalabeiKomarBasisWin rate · lifetime505 / 1001 vs 242 / 62450.5%38.8%505 / 1001 vs 242 / 624Avg sets wonper match2.01.7per matchAvg pointsper match36.636.1per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Balabei

Balabei 1.36/Komar 3.00

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

69.6%

Balabei · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–2

Balabei won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record10

LSep 11 · 16:00S. Balabei—811211102V. Komar—118116123

WAug 29 · 09:30S. Balabei—116145123V. Komar—4111211102

LAug 28 · 14:00S. Balabei—119101142V. Komar—111129113

WAug 26 · 09:00S. Balabei—1361111133V. Komar—1111813112

WAug 25 · 15:00S. Balabei—1111113V. Komar—8160

LAug 22 · 14:00S. Balabei—13111111122V. Komar—151346143

LAug 20 · 10:38S. Balabei—10970V. Komar—1211113

WAug 20 · 06:00S. Balabei—1261011113V. Komar—101112782

WAug 15 · 13:00S. Balabei—511117113V. Komar—11391132

WAug 13 · 06:00S. Balabei—1113113V. Komar—61150

S. Balabei10

LSep 11 · 16:00V. Komar2.00118116123S. Balabei1.73811211102 WSep 11 · 14:30D. Kryshtal2.20491151S. Balabei1.6111114113 WSep 11 · 13:00S. Kushnirenko3.40611731S. Balabei1.3011711113 LSep 11 · 12:00R. Horokh1.801111113S. Balabei1.919750 WAug 31 · 17:43S. Balabei1.501111153D. Kryshtal2.5096130 LAug 31 · 16:30D. Kryshtal2.501110127133S. Balabei1.508121011112 WAug 31 · 15:00S. Balabei1.441211113D. Yurkov2.6310670 LAug 31 · 13:30S. Balabei1.3051191192S. Kushnirenko3.40116117113 LAug 31 · 12:00S. Balabei2.00513111292R. Horokh1.731115610113 LAug 29 · 10:35S. Ponomarenko1.071111113S. Balabei7.506690

V. Komar10

WSep 11 · 16:00V. Komar2.00118116123S. Balabei1.73811211102 WSep 11 · 15:00R. Horokh1.5312116101V. Komar2.3814911123 WSep 11 · 14:00S. Kushnirenko2.10111011442V. Komar1.67712911113 WSep 11 · 12:30D. Kryshtal1.57119891V. Komar2.2591111113 LSep 9 · 16:58V. Komar2.504740D. Kryshtal1.501111113 LSep 9 · 16:00V. Komar8.505131061S. Ponomarenko1.05111112113 LSep 9 · 15:00R. Horokh1.57791111113V. Komar2.2511117772 WSep 9 · 14:00S. Kushnirenko2.1081151362V. Komar1.671161111113 WSep 9 · 12:30D. Kryshtal1.5711811692V. Komar2.25511511113 LSep 8 · 16:00V. Komar2.25138771R. Horokh1.57111111113

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