TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13116875
Played Sep 12Finished
Serhii Ponomarenko
Home
1.17
At publish
Won last 10Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 10
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118911118116––
Roman Horokh
Away
4.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:10 and never touched — 82.9% is still 82.9%
Graded at full timeSerhii Ponomarenko to win
82.9%
82.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Ponomarenko above · Roman Horokh below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 75 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Serhii Ponomarenko at 82.9%
75 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Ponomarenko 261–36 Roman Horokh Roman Horokh has won 36 of their 297 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:10What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.17 (79%)
Ponomarenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
261-36 in 297
Ponomarenko
Correct
gap of 225 in 297, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ponomarenko 1987 vs Horokh 1942
Ponomarenko
Correct
both rated, 45 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ponomarenko 100% vs Horokh 40%
Ponomarenko
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ponomarenko 100% vs Horokh 40%
Ponomarenko
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ponomarenko +5 · Horokh +2
Ponomarenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 83% — Strong (leans Ponomarenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Horokh form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (22%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPonomarenko 1.17 / Horokh 4.50
Signal prob.83% / 17%
Edge (Ponomarenko)+3.5pp
Setka Cup · #13116875
Ponomarenko1.17
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Won last 10
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite88% won 302 of 344
Up 2–0, closes it100% 197 of 198
Up 1–0, closes it95% 250 of 263
Horokh4.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog17% won 15 of 91
Down 0–1, comes back3% 2 of 59
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePonomarenko9wins
AwayHorokh1wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPonomarenko leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePonomarenko85.7%6 of 7
AwayHorokh0%0 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ponomarenko7Horokh3n = 10Ponomarenko took 7 of 10
S2Ponomarenko9Horokh1n = 10Ponomarenko took 9 of 10
S3Ponomarenko6Horokh4n = 10Ponomarenko took 6 of 10
S4Ponomarenko4Horokh2n = 6Ponomarenko took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPonomarenkoHorokhP − HBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.026.8+12.2per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPonomarenkoHorokhBasisWin rate · lifetime788 / 874 vs 699 / 124690.2%56.1%788 / 874 vs 699 / 1246Avg sets wonper match2.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PonomarenkoPonomarenko 1.17/Horokh 4.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
82.9%
Ponomarenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Ponomarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 17 · 10:30S. Ponomarenko—11119113R. Horokh—761171
WJul 17 · 07:00S. Ponomarenko—911911113R. Horokh—11911262
WJul 15 · 07:30S. Ponomarenko—511129113R. Horokh—116101122
WJul 14 · 17:10S. Ponomarenko—1111113R. Horokh—4230
WJul 14 · 16:00S. Ponomarenko—81111113R. Horokh—118801
WJul 10 · 09:00S. Ponomarenko—1111113R. Horokh—6690
LJun 25 · 09:30S. Ponomarenko—1110761R. Horokh—11211113
WJun 25 · 06:00S. Ponomarenko—1111113R. Horokh—7760
WJun 24 · 17:03S. Ponomarenko—11115113R. Horokh—721141
WJun 24 · 16:00S. Ponomarenko—1111153R. Horokh—54130
S. Ponomarenko10
WSep 12 · 07:00S. Ponomarenko1.0311114113S. Kushnirenko10.00631141WSep 12 · 06:00S. Ponomarenko1.051111113V. Komar8.504770WSep 9 · 17:29S. Ponomarenko1.20118711113R. Horokh4.3361111872WSep 9 · 16:00V. Komar8.505131061S. Ponomarenko1.05111112113WSep 9 · 14:30D. Kryshtal9.0011711172S. Ponomarenko1.04911115113WSep 9 · 13:00S. Kushnirenko10.005660S. Ponomarenko1.031111113WSep 9 · 12:00R. Horokh4.50761181S. Ponomarenko1.1711116113WSep 3 · 19:25S. Ponomarenko1.01111112123E. Rubtsov12.008714101WSep 3 · 17:55S. Ponomarenko1.20113911113P. Plakushchyi4.3351111672WSep 3 · 16:25S. Ponomarenko1.041114113O. Kovalchuk9.0071270
R. Horokh10
WSep 12 · 07:30R. Horokh1.40101111113V. Komar2.75127831WSep 12 · 06:30D. Kryshtal2.63117861R. Horokh1.4451111113LSep 12 · 05:30R. Horokh1.506111081S. Kushnirenko2.5011712113LSep 11 · 16:30S. Kushnirenko2.50141011113R. Horokh1.501212781LSep 11 · 15:00R. Horokh1.5312116101V. Komar2.3814911123LSep 11 · 13:30R. Horokh1.5011771182D. Kryshtal2.50511112113WSep 11 · 12:00R. Horokh1.801111113S. Balabei1.919750LSep 9 · 17:29S. Ponomarenko1.20118711113R. Horokh4.3361111872LSep 9 · 16:30S. Kushnirenko2.6311211113R. Horokh1.44911381LSep 9 · 12:00R. Horokh4.50761181S. Ponomarenko1.1711116113
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