TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13111575
Played Sep 11Finished
Maksim Ovcharenko
Home
1.36
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
11131214711––––
Dawid Stapor
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:15 and never touched — 54.8% is still 54.8%
Graded at full timeMaksim Ovcharenko to win
54.8%
54.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
68 points played in total.
Set by set
11131214711––––
H2H Maksim Ovcharenko 7–6 Dawid Stapor Dawid Stapor has won 6 of their 13 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:15What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (67%)
Ovcharenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-6 in 13
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ovcharenko 1675 vs Stapor 1539
Ovcharenko
Wrong
both rated, 136 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ovcharenko 40% vs Stapor 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ovcharenko 60% vs Stapor 40%
Ovcharenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ovcharenko -1 · Stapor -3
Stapor
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Clear lean (leans Ovcharenko) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ovcharenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (74%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOvcharenko 1.36 / Stapor 2.75
Signal prob.70% / 30%
Edge (Ovcharenko)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13111575
Ovcharenko1.36
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite70% won 35 of 50
Up 2–0, closes it100% 22 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it84% 27 of 32
Stapor2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog47% won 42 of 89
Down 0–1, comes back25% 12 of 48
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOvcharenko5wins
AwayStapor5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOvcharenko66.7%4 of 6
AwayStapor75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ovcharenko6Stapor4n = 10Ovcharenko took 6 of 10
S2Ovcharenko6Stapor4n = 10Ovcharenko took 6 of 10
S3Ovcharenko5Stapor5n = 10split evenly
S4Ovcharenko3Stapor1n = 4Ovcharenko took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricOvcharenkoStaporO − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match34.731.7+3.0per matchSweeps42+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOvcharenkoStaporBasisWin rate · lifetime111 / 180 vs 482 / 91361.7%52.8%111 / 180 vs 482 / 913Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OvcharenkoOvcharenko 1.36/Stapor 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
69.7%
Ovcharenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Stapor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 11 · 06:00M. Ovcharenko—111270D. Stapor—1314113
WSep 8 · 11:00M. Ovcharenko—91111113D. Stapor—116891
WSep 6 · 21:35M. Ovcharenko—1111113D. Stapor—3960
WFeb 25 · 09:00M. Ovcharenko—1111113D. Stapor—7830
LFeb 24 · 09:00M. Ovcharenko—7510D. Stapor—1111113
LFeb 19 · 13:30M. Ovcharenko—111181192D. Stapor—713118113
LFeb 19 · 08:00M. Ovcharenko—11851162D. Stapor—511117113
WFeb 17 · 08:30M. Ovcharenko—1211113D. Stapor—10450
WFeb 13 · 06:00M. Ovcharenko—1111113D. Stapor—8780
LApr 27 · 20:00M. Ovcharenko—1111881D. Stapor—13411113
M. Ovcharenko10
WSep 11 · 07:30B. Molka2.6541111692M. Ovcharenko1.43117811113LSep 10 · 13:40D. Skvarskyi1.831611113M. Ovcharenko1.8714890WSep 10 · 11:00M. Ovcharenko1.36126911113S. Wloszek2.90101111982LSep 10 · 09:30M. Ovcharenko1.4981090M. Galus2.341112113LSep 10 · 08:00M. Ovcharenko1.8511311692D. Skvarskyi1.85911811113WSep 10 · 06:30M. Ovcharenko1.441111113S. Radlo2.506760WSep 10 · 05:30M. Ovcharenko1.461091311113M. Stepien2.42121111632WSep 8 · 13:40S. Radlo1.81118231M. Ovcharenko1.9091111113WSep 8 · 11:00D. Stapor2.75116891M. Ovcharenko1.4191111113WSep 8 · 10:00M. Ovcharenko1.47119118113B. Molka2.5051161182
D. Stapor10
WSep 11 · 08:00M. Lysakowski1.73871591D. Stapor1.98111113113LSep 11 · 07:00D. Stapor1.95114141142M. Galus1.74911169113LSep 9 · 13:10M. Lysakowski1.5813116133D. Stapor2.1411611111LSep 9 · 12:00D. Stapor2.1811781292D. Skvarskyi1.568111110113LSep 9 · 10:00M. Lysakowski1.58111111113D. Stapor2.20981361WSep 9 · 08:00P. Gola2.001161181D. Stapor1.7291113113WSep 9 · 07:00D. Stapor1.7211811113S. Wloszek2.00611951LSep 9 · 06:00M. Burkacki2.1811118113D. Stapor1.56961191WSep 8 · 13:10D. Stapor1.60111157113M. Burkacki2.2066111182LSep 8 · 11:00D. Stapor2.75116891M. Ovcharenko1.4191111113
Upcoming Matches
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