TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13113316
Played Sep 11Finished
Bartlomiej Molka
Home
2.65
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
411117118611911
Maksim Ovcharenko
Away
1.43
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:45 and never touched — 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timeMaksim Ovcharenko to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
89 points played in total.
Set by set
411117118611911
H2H Bartlomiej Molka 5–9 Maksim Ovcharenko Bartlomiej Molka has won 5 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:45What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.43 (65%)
Ovcharenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-9 in 14
Ovcharenko
Correct
gap of 4 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Molka 1609 vs Ovcharenko 1675
Ovcharenko
Correct
both rated, 66 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Molka 40% vs Ovcharenko 20%
Molka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Molka 50% vs Ovcharenko 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Molka +1 · Ovcharenko -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Ovcharenko) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ovcharenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (70%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMolka 2.65 / Ovcharenko 1.43
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Ovcharenko)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13113316
Molka2.65
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog45% won 180 of 404
Down 0–1, comes back21% 47 of 225
Down 0–2, comes back5% 6 of 129
Ovcharenko1.43
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite70% won 35 of 50
Up 2–0, closes it100% 22 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it84% 27 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMolka2wins
AwayOvcharenko8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderOvcharenko leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMolka66.7%2 of 3
AwayOvcharenko100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Molka3Ovcharenko7n = 10Ovcharenko took 7 of 10
S2Molka4Ovcharenko6n = 10Ovcharenko took 6 of 10
S3Molka2Ovcharenko8n = 10Ovcharenko took 8 of 10
S4Molka3Ovcharenko1n = 4Molka took 3 of 4
S5Molka0Ovcharenko3n = 3Ovcharenko took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricMolkaOvcharenkoM − OBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match29.235.4−6.2per matchSweeps15−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMolkaOvcharenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime534 / 1164 vs 111 / 18045.9%61.7%534 / 1164 vs 111 / 180Avg sets wonper match1.82.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OvcharenkoMolka 2.65/Ovcharenko 1.43
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.4%
Ovcharenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Ovcharenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 10:00B. Molka—51161182M. Ovcharenko—119118113
WSep 6 · 23:35B. Molka—111011113M. Ovcharenko—712281
LSep 6 · 20:35B. Molka—9540M. Ovcharenko—1111113
LFeb 28 · 14:45B. Molka—8440M. Ovcharenko—1111113
LFeb 28 · 10:35B. Molka—4660M. Ovcharenko—1111113
LFeb 27 · 11:00B. Molka—71141272M. Ovcharenko—1171110113
LFeb 21 · 10:05B. Molka—111181032M. Ovcharenko—381112113
LFeb 20 · 13:40B. Molka—8780M. Ovcharenko—1111113
LFeb 20 · 08:00B. Molka—7650M. Ovcharenko—1111113
WFeb 19 · 12:30B. Molka—1111113M. Ovcharenko—7260
B. Molka10
WSep 11 · 05:30B. Molka2.411111113P. Gola1.467890LSep 8 · 12:40B. Molka—8870S. Wloszek—1111113LSep 8 · 12:00B. Molka1.75137121082S. Radlo1.9511111012113LSep 8 · 10:00M. Ovcharenko1.47119118113B. Molka2.5051161182WSep 8 · 08:00D. Stapor1.83531191B. Molka1.8611112113WSep 8 · 07:00B. Molka1.57101111113S. Wloszek2.15128971LSep 8 · 06:00M. Burkacki2.5011119113B. Molka1.47851181WSep 7 · 13:10M. Stepien1.48811711102B. Molka2.35115115123WSep 7 · 11:00S. Radlo1.909490B. Molka1.801111113LSep 7 · 10:00B. Molka2.2511891192M. Stepien1.57511115113
M. Ovcharenko10
WSep 11 · 08:30M. Ovcharenko1.341111113P. Gola3.009630LSep 11 · 06:00M. Ovcharenko1.36111270D. Stapor2.751314113LSep 10 · 13:40D. Skvarskyi1.831611113M. Ovcharenko1.8714890WSep 10 · 11:00M. Ovcharenko1.36126911113S. Wloszek2.90101111982LSep 10 · 09:30M. Ovcharenko1.4981090M. Galus2.341112113LSep 10 · 08:00M. Ovcharenko1.8511311692D. Skvarskyi1.85911811113WSep 10 · 06:30M. Ovcharenko1.441111113S. Radlo2.506760WSep 10 · 05:30M. Ovcharenko1.461091311113M. Stepien2.42121111632WSep 8 · 13:40S. Radlo1.81118231M. Ovcharenko1.9091111113WSep 8 · 10:00M. Ovcharenko1.47119118113B. Molka2.5051161182
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