TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13109829
Played Sep 10Finished
Dmytro Skvarskyi
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 10Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 10
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1614118119––––
Maksim Ovcharenko
Away
1.87
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:03 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDmytro Skvarskyi to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
69 points played in total.
Set by set
1614118119––––
H2H Dmytro Skvarskyi 13–6 Maksim Ovcharenko Maksim Ovcharenko has won 6 of their 19 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Skvarskyi beat Ovcharenko 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 13:03What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (51%)
Skvarskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-6 in 19
Skvarskyi
Correct
gap of 7 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skvarskyi 1750 vs Ovcharenko 1708
Skvarskyi
Correct
both rated, 42 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skvarskyi 100% vs Ovcharenko 60%
Skvarskyi
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skvarskyi 100% vs Ovcharenko 70%
Skvarskyi
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skvarskyi +5 · Ovcharenko +1
Skvarskyi
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Skvarskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skvarskyi form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkvarskyi 1.83 / Ovcharenko 1.87
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Skvarskyi)+3.5pp
TT Cup · #13109829
Skvarskyi1.83
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Won last 10
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite66% won 65 of 99
Up 2–0, closes it92% 24 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it77% 34 of 44
Ovcharenko1.87
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog56% won 15 of 27
Down 0–1, comes back44% 7 of 16
Down 0–2, comes back29% 2 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkvarskyi8wins
AwayOvcharenko2wins
6 of 10 to a deciderSkvarskyi leads 8–2, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkvarskyi50%2 of 4
AwayOvcharenko0%0 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skvarskyi4Ovcharenko6n = 10Ovcharenko took 6 of 10
S2Skvarskyi7Ovcharenko3n = 10Skvarskyi took 7 of 10
S3Skvarskyi4Ovcharenko6n = 10Ovcharenko took 6 of 10
S4Skvarskyi7Ovcharenko3n = 10Skvarskyi took 7 of 10
S5Skvarskyi5Ovcharenko1n = 6Skvarskyi took 5 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkvarskyiOvcharenkoS − OBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match44.341.1+3.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkvarskyiOvcharenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime142 / 207 vs 111 / 17868.6%62.4%142 / 207 vs 111 / 178Avg sets wonper match2.42.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.937.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkvarskyiSkvarskyi 1.83/Ovcharenko 1.87
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Skvarskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Skvarskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 10 · 08:00D. Skvarskyi—911811113M. Ovcharenko—11311692
WSep 3 · 07:00D. Skvarskyi—11119113M. Ovcharenko—831161
WMar 25 · 15:10D. Skvarskyi—101111123M. Ovcharenko—1268101
LMar 25 · 12:25D. Skvarskyi—121171092M. Ovcharenko—1031112113
LMar 24 · 08:25D. Skvarskyi—115671M. Ovcharenko—61111113
WMar 23 · 11:30D. Skvarskyi—511118113M. Ovcharenko—11971172
WMar 23 · 08:25D. Skvarskyi—117716143M. Ovcharenko—9111114122
WFeb 28 · 09:35D. Skvarskyi—411812113M. Ovcharenko—116111092
WFeb 27 · 10:00D. Skvarskyi—41111113M. Ovcharenko—115791
WFeb 25 · 07:30D. Skvarskyi—751111113M. Ovcharenko—11117742
D. Skvarskyi10
WSep 10 · 12:00D. Skvarskyi1.5051114113S. Radlo2.401171231WSep 10 · 10:00S. Wloszek2.35951171D. Skvarskyi1.5011116113WSep 10 · 08:00M. Ovcharenko1.8511311692D. Skvarskyi1.85911811113WSep 10 · 07:00M. Galus2.2513781172D. Skvarskyi1.541111117113WSep 10 · 06:10D. Skvarskyi1.471111113M. Stepien2.509480WSep 9 · 13:40D. Skvarskyi2.5351111133M. Burkacki1.471187111WSep 9 · 12:00D. Stapor2.1811781292D. Skvarskyi1.568111110113WSep 9 · 10:30D. Skvarskyi1.43511117113S. Wloszek2.4811961192WSep 9 · 08:30M. Burkacki2.5011711752D. Skvarskyi1.47911911113WSep 9 · 06:30P. Gola2.801311910102D. Skvarskyi1.351171112123
M. Ovcharenko10
WSep 10 · 11:00M. Ovcharenko1.36126911113S. Wloszek2.90101111982LSep 10 · 09:30M. Ovcharenko1.4981090M. Galus2.341112113LSep 10 · 08:00M. Ovcharenko1.8511311692D. Skvarskyi1.85911811113WSep 10 · 06:30M. Ovcharenko1.441111113S. Radlo2.506760WSep 10 · 05:30M. Ovcharenko1.461091311113M. Stepien2.42121111632WSep 8 · 13:40S. Radlo1.81118231M. Ovcharenko1.9091111113WSep 8 · 11:00D. Stapor2.75116891M. Ovcharenko1.4191111113WSep 8 · 10:00M. Ovcharenko1.47119118113B. Molka2.5051161182LSep 8 · 09:00M. Ovcharenko1.291110661S. Wloszek3.0591211113WSep 8 · 07:30M. Ovcharenko1.491111113M. Burkacki2.459350
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.