TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13103052
Played Sep 9Finished
Michal Lysakowski
Home
1.58
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1191181113116––
Dawid Stapor
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:46 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDawid Stapor to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
80 points played in total.
Set by set
1191181113116––
H2H Michal Lysakowski 90–116 Dawid Stapor Michal Lysakowski has won 90 of their 206 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:46What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.58 (58%)
Lysakowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
90-116 in 206
Stapor
Wrong
gap of 26 in 206, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lysakowski 1656 vs Stapor 1549
Lysakowski
Correct
both rated, 107 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lysakowski 60% vs Stapor 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lysakowski 70% vs Stapor 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lysakowski +1 · Stapor +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Lysakowski) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stapor form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLysakowski 1.58 / Stapor 2.20
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Lysakowski)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13103052
Lysakowski1.58
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 188 of 344
Up 2–0, closes it91% 120 of 132
Up 1–0, closes it75% 160 of 214
Stapor2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog49% won 42 of 86
Down 0–1, comes back26% 12 of 46
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLysakowski4wins
AwayStapor6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderStapor leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLysakowski66.7%4 of 6
AwayStapor100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lysakowski6Stapor4n = 10Lysakowski took 6 of 10
S2Lysakowski5Stapor5n = 10split evenly
S3Lysakowski2Stapor8n = 10Stapor took 8 of 10
S4Lysakowski5Stapor2n = 7Lysakowski took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricLysakowskiStaporL − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.137.7−0.6per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLysakowskiStaporBasisWin rate · lifetime640 / 1313 vs 488 / 91648.7%53.3%640 / 1313 vs 488 / 916Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LysakowskiLysakowski 1.58/Stapor 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61%
Lysakowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Lysakowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 1 · 06:00M. Lysakowski—11811113D. Stapor—711451
LAug 28 · 11:30M. Lysakowski—119771D. Stapor—81111113
LAug 19 · 05:30M. Lysakowski—12971192D. Stapor—1011118113
WAug 18 · 08:00M. Lysakowski—11139113D. Stapor—8111181
LJul 31 · 13:20M. Lysakowski—98120D. Stapor—1111143
LJul 31 · 08:30M. Lysakowski—811881D. Stapor—11411113
LJul 28 · 06:30M. Lysakowski—9970D. Stapor—1111113
WJul 26 · 08:35M. Lysakowski—11118113D. Stapor—891191
WJul 24 · 05:00M. Lysakowski—1111123D. Stapor—88100
LJul 21 · 06:00M. Lysakowski—61151172D. Stapor—119119113
M. Lysakowski10
WSep 9 · 09:00M. Lysakowski1.41911115113S. Wloszek2.6011591182LSep 9 · 07:30M. Lysakowski1.39812100M. Burkacki2.801114123WSep 9 · 05:30M. Lysakowski1.761411113D. Skvarskyi1.9012460LSep 7 · 13:40D. Skvarskyi1.8711111410113M. Lysakowski1.83613121232WSep 7 · 11:30M. Lysakowski1.361111411123M. Burkacki2.75851113102WSep 7 · 09:30S. Radlo2.101148101M. Lysakowski1.6091111123LSep 7 · 08:30M. Lysakowski1.8613491132D. Skvarskyi1.831111116113WSep 7 · 07:30B. Molka2.14971171M. Lysakowski1.5811118113WSep 7 · 06:00M. Lysakowski2.01124911143M. Stepien1.661011118122WSep 4 · 12:30S. Radlo1.536660M. Lysakowski2.351111113
D. Stapor10
WSep 9 · 08:00P. Gola2.001161181D. Stapor1.7291113113WSep 9 · 07:00D. Stapor1.7211811113S. Wloszek2.00611951LSep 9 · 06:00M. Burkacki2.1811118113D. Stapor1.56961191WSep 8 · 13:10D. Stapor1.60111157113M. Burkacki2.2066111182LSep 8 · 11:00D. Stapor2.75116891M. Ovcharenko1.4191111113WSep 8 · 09:30D. Stapor1.601111113M. Burkacki2.108660LSep 8 · 08:00D. Stapor1.83531191B. Molka1.8611112113WSep 8 · 06:30D. Stapor1.8512111113113S. Radlo1.8514651552WSep 8 · 05:00D. Stapor1.701113113S. Wloszek1.9651160WSep 6 · 22:35J. Masternak—1111138102D. Stapor—741511123
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