TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13102536
Played Sep 9Finished
Michal Lysakowski
Home
1.39
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
81112141012––––
Mateusz Burkacki
Away
2.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:22 and never touched — 65.1% is still 65.1%
Graded at full timeMichal Lysakowski to win
65.1%
65.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
67 points played in total.
Set by set
81112141012––––
H2H Michal Lysakowski 16–9 Mateusz Burkacki Mateusz Burkacki has won 9 of their 25 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:22What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.39 (67%)
Lysakowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-9 in 25
Lysakowski
Wrong
gap of 7 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lysakowski 1648 vs Burkacki 1493
Lysakowski
Wrong
both rated, 155 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lysakowski 60% vs Burkacki 40%
Lysakowski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lysakowski 60% vs Burkacki 40%
Lysakowski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lysakowski +1 · Burkacki +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Strong (leans Lysakowski) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lysakowski form (60%) is below what odds imply (72%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLysakowski 1.39 / Burkacki 2.80
Signal prob.70% / 30%
Edge (Lysakowski)+3.6pp
TT Cup · #13102536
Lysakowski1.39
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite55% won 188 of 344
Up 2–0, closes it91% 120 of 132
Up 1–0, closes it75% 160 of 214
Burkacki2.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 50 of 131
Down 0–1, comes back21% 18 of 84
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLysakowski7wins
AwayBurkacki3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLysakowski leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLysakowski75%6 of 8
AwayBurkackin = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lysakowski8Burkacki2n = 10Lysakowski took 8 of 10
S2Lysakowski3Burkacki7n = 10Burkacki took 7 of 10
S3Lysakowski3Burkacki7n = 10Burkacki took 7 of 10
S4Lysakowski6Burkacki3n = 9Lysakowski took 6 of 9
S5Lysakowski4Burkacki1n = 5Lysakowski took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricLysakowskiBurkackiL − BBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match43.141.3+1.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLysakowskiBurkackiBasisWin rate · lifetime639 / 1312 vs 86 / 21548.7%40%639 / 1312 vs 86 / 215Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LysakowskiLysakowski 1.39/Burkacki 2.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70.4%
Lysakowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Burkacki won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 07:30M. Lysakowski—812100M. Burkacki—1114123
WSep 7 · 11:30M. Lysakowski—1111411123M. Burkacki—851113102
WSep 4 · 06:00M. Lysakowski—115911113M. Burkacki—41111872
WSep 3 · 12:40M. Lysakowski—11412133M. Burkacki—51110111
WSep 3 · 05:00M. Lysakowski—11117113M. Burkacki—681151
WJul 8 · 10:00M. Lysakowski—1061211113M. Burkacki—121110582
WJul 7 · 11:00M. Lysakowski—11811113M. Burkacki—611891
WJul 6 · 11:00M. Lysakowski—115711123M. Burkacki—911119102
LJul 3 · 07:30M. Lysakowski—1116571M. Burkacki—61811113
LJun 29 · 11:00M. Lysakowski—11119992M. Burkacki—391111113
M. Lysakowski10
WSep 9 · 05:30M. Lysakowski1.761411113D. Skvarskyi1.9012460LSep 7 · 13:40D. Skvarskyi1.8711111410113M. Lysakowski1.83613121232WSep 7 · 11:30M. Lysakowski1.361111411123M. Burkacki2.75851113102WSep 7 · 09:30S. Radlo2.101148101M. Lysakowski1.6091111123LSep 7 · 08:30M. Lysakowski1.8613491132D. Skvarskyi1.831111116113WSep 7 · 07:30B. Molka2.14971171M. Lysakowski1.5811118113WSep 7 · 06:00M. Lysakowski2.01124911143M. Stepien1.661011118122WSep 4 · 12:30S. Radlo1.536660M. Lysakowski2.351111113LSep 4 · 12:00M. Lysakowski2.009470P. Gola1.721111113LSep 4 · 10:00M. Ovcharenko1.57101115113M. Lysakowski2.251281341
M. Burkacki10
WSep 9 · 06:00M. Burkacki2.1811118113D. Stapor1.56961191LSep 8 · 13:10D. Stapor1.60111157113M. Burkacki2.2066111182WSep 8 · 11:30M. Burkacki2.101011118113S. Wloszek1.6012281162LSep 8 · 09:30D. Stapor1.601111113M. Burkacki2.108660LSep 8 · 08:30M. Burkacki2.2597120S. Radlo1.541111143LSep 8 · 07:30M. Ovcharenko1.491111113M. Burkacki2.459350WSep 8 · 06:00M. Burkacki2.5011119113B. Molka1.47851181WSep 7 · 12:40S. Radlo1.7115490M. Burkacki2.001711113LSep 7 · 11:30M. Lysakowski1.361111411123M. Burkacki2.75851113102LSep 7 · 10:30D. Skvarskyi1.4131111143M. Burkacki2.601184121
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M. Burkacki
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