TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13101229
Played Sep 9Finished
Mateusz Burkacki
Home
2.18
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119116811119––
Dawid Stapor
Away
1.56
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:44 and never touched — 63.6% is still 63.6%
Graded at full timeDawid Stapor to win
63.6%
63.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
76 points played in total.
Set by set
119116811119––
H2H Mateusz Burkacki 6–9 Dawid Stapor Mateusz Burkacki has won 6 of their 15 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:44What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.56 (58%)
Stapor
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-9 in 15
Stapor
Wrong
gap of 3 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Burkacki 1487 vs Stapor 1526
Stapor
Wrong
both rated, 39 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Burkacki 20% vs Stapor 60%
Stapor
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Burkacki 30% vs Stapor 50%
Stapor
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Burkacki -1 · Stapor +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Stapor) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Burkacki form (20%) is below what odds imply (46%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBurkacki 2.18 / Stapor 1.56
Signal prob.41% / 60%
Edge (Stapor)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13101229
Burkacki2.18
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog39% won 53 of 136
Down 0–1, comes back22% 19 of 85
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 49
Stapor1.56
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 180 of 297
Up 2–0, closes it99% 91 of 92
Up 1–0, closes it87% 135 of 156
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBurkacki5wins
AwayStapor5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBurkacki75%3 of 4
AwayStapor66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Burkacki4Stapor6n = 10Stapor took 6 of 10
S2Burkacki3Stapor7n = 10Stapor took 7 of 10
S3Burkacki5Stapor5n = 10split evenly
S4Burkacki5Stapor3n = 8Burkacki took 5 of 8
S5Burkacki2Stapor1n = 3Burkacki took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBurkackiStaporB − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.440.6−2.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBurkackiStaporBasisWin rate · lifetime87 / 219 vs 486 / 91739.7%53%87 / 219 vs 486 / 917Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StaporBurkacki 2.18/Stapor 1.56
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.5%
Stapor · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Burkacki won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 9 · 06:00M. Burkacki—11118113D. Stapor—961191
LSep 8 · 13:10M. Burkacki—66111182D. Stapor—111157113
LSep 8 · 09:30M. Burkacki—8660D. Stapor—1111113
WSep 2 · 07:30M. Burkacki—51112113D. Stapor—1161081
LJul 8 · 12:30M. Burkacki—125861D. Stapor—101111113
WJul 8 · 09:00M. Burkacki—1112912133D. Stapor—6141110112
LJun 29 · 09:00M. Burkacki—5712111D. Stapor—111110133
WJun 26 · 11:00M. Burkacki—11711113D. Stapor—611691
WJun 19 · 08:00M. Burkacki—911139123D. Stapor—1191111102
LJun 15 · 05:30M. Burkacki—78100D. Stapor—1111123
M. Burkacki10
LSep 9 · 13:40D. Skvarskyi2.5351111133M. Burkacki1.471187111WSep 9 · 11:30M. Burkacki2.0561111113S. Wloszek1.66118971LSep 9 · 09:30P. Gola1.561012118113M. Burkacki2.18121091152LSep 9 · 08:30M. Burkacki2.5011711752D. Skvarskyi1.47911911113WSep 9 · 07:30M. Lysakowski1.39812100M. Burkacki2.801114123LSep 8 · 13:10D. Stapor1.60111157113M. Burkacki2.2066111182WSep 8 · 11:30M. Burkacki2.101011118113S. Wloszek1.6012281162LSep 8 · 09:30D. Stapor1.601111113M. Burkacki2.108660LSep 8 · 08:30M. Burkacki2.2597120S. Radlo1.541111143LSep 8 · 07:30M. Ovcharenko1.491111113M. Burkacki2.459350
D. Stapor10
LSep 9 · 13:10M. Lysakowski1.5813116133D. Stapor2.1411611111LSep 9 · 12:00D. Stapor2.1811781292D. Skvarskyi1.568111110113LSep 9 · 10:00M. Lysakowski1.58111111113D. Stapor2.20981361WSep 9 · 08:00P. Gola2.001161181D. Stapor1.7291113113WSep 9 · 07:00D. Stapor1.7211811113S. Wloszek2.00611951WSep 8 · 13:10D. Stapor1.60111157113M. Burkacki2.2066111182LSep 8 · 11:00D. Stapor2.75116891M. Ovcharenko1.4191111113WSep 8 · 09:30D. Stapor1.601111113M. Burkacki2.108660LSep 8 · 08:00D. Stapor1.83531191B. Molka1.8611112113WSep 8 · 06:30D. Stapor1.8512111113113S. Radlo1.8514651552
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