TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13109907
Played Sep 10Finished
Patrik Muller
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
9111136111171113
Tomas Holomek
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 2
How it is goingPatrik Muller above · Tomas Holomek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-13
Point 93 set 5, 11-13
93 points played in total.
H2H Patrik Muller 5–4 Tomas Holomek Tomas Holomek has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Holomek beat Muller 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Muller)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Muller form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMuller 1.61 / Holomek 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Muller)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13109907
Muller1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 7 of 12
Up 2–0, closes it100% 5 of 5
Up 1–0, closes it86% 6 of 7
Holomek2.20
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog40% won 12 of 30
Down 0–1, comes back20% 3 of 15
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeMuller5wins
AwayHolomek4wins
4 of 9 to a deciderMuller leads 5–4, and 4 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMuller60%3 of 5
AwayHolomek50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Muller5Holomek4n = 9Muller took 5 of 9
S2Muller7Holomek2n = 9Muller took 7 of 9
S3Muller1Holomek8n = 9Holomek took 8 of 9
S4Muller4Holomek3n = 7Muller took 4 of 7
S5Muller2Holomek2n = 4split evenly
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home333%
3–2Decider, home222%
2–3Decider, away222%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away222%
These 9 meetings
MetricMullerHolomekM − HBasisWins54+1in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match38.440.2−1.8per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMullerHolomekBasisWin rate · lifetime68 / 150 vs 54 / 12345.3%43.9%68 / 150 vs 54 / 123Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MullerMuller 1.61/Holomek 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.1%
Muller · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Holomek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 10 · 10:30P. Muller—12127882T. Holomek—10101111113
WJun 4 · 12:58P. Muller—81111113T. Holomek—119781
WJun 4 · 09:15P. Muller—511911113T. Holomek—11611982
WApr 23 · 11:15P. Muller—111110113T. Holomek—981221
LDec 23 · 17:51P. Muller—7740T. Holomek—1111113
WDec 23 · 16:00P. Muller—11113123T. Holomek—7711101
WOct 24 · 10:45P. Muller—111256113T. Holomek—710111182
LMay 2 · 10:00P. Muller—11850T. Holomek—1311103
LApr 24 · 10:00P. Muller—111334132T. Holomek—1111111153
P. Muller10
WSep 10 · 12:00P. Muller1.5312117113J. Vrnak2.381091151LSep 10 · 10:30T. Holomek2.1010101111113P. Muller1.6712127882WSep 10 · 10:00A. Skyba1.57811731P. Muller2.2511911113LSep 6 · 16:34A. Akopyan2.1012136113P. Muller1.6710111191LSep 6 · 15:30V. Coubal1.611113133P. Muller2.20811110LSep 6 · 15:00P. Muller2.631110761M. Holub1.4481211113WSep 6 · 14:00P. Muller1.671111113A. Akopyan2.103990LJun 28 · 13:00P. Muller2.6381070J. Jnr1.441112113LJun 28 · 12:00J. Jnr1.5711713113P. Muller2.253111131LJun 28 · 11:00M. Vydra1.30811511113P. Muller3.4011411732
T. Holomek10
WSep 10 · 11:30T. Holomek1.83111811143A. Skyba1.83117119122WSep 10 · 10:30T. Holomek2.1010101111113P. Muller1.6712127882LSep 10 · 09:30T. Holomek2.2091060J. Vrnak1.611112113LAug 13 · 12:58D. Sabuka1.25911511113T. Holomek3.7511511782LAug 13 · 12:00T. Holomek2.206870D. Sabuka1.611111113LAug 13 · 10:30M. Holub1.401111123T. Holomek2.7587100LAug 13 · 10:00A. Akopyan2.5026911123T. Holomek1.5024116101LAug 6 · 08:38A. Akopyan2.38116115113T. Holomek1.5361181182LAug 6 · 07:30T. Holomek1.737960J. Vrnak2.001111113LAug 6 · 06:30T. Holomek2.2510480M. Holub1.571211113
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