TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13105413
Played Sep 9Finished
Marek Holub
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
15131169119111311
Lukas Kern
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:26 and never touched — 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeLukas Kern to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMarek Holub above · Lukas Kern below
Set 1 · 15-13
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 13-11
Point 109 set 5, 13-11 — our read held Lukas Kern at 59.3%
109 points played in total.
H2H Marek Holub 6–10 Lukas Kern Marek Holub has won 6 of their 16 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Kern beat Holub 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:26What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kern
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-10 in 16
Kern
Wrong
gap of 4 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Holub 1594 vs Kern 1590
Holub
Correct
both rated, 4 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Holub 40% vs Kern 60%
Kern
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Holub 30% vs Kern 50%
Kern
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Holub -1 · Kern +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Kern) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHolub 2.10 / Kern 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Kern)+0.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13105413
Holub2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 75 of 177
Down 0–1, comes back19% 18 of 96
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 58
Kern1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite64% won 74 of 115
Up 2–0, closes it95% 36 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it87% 53 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHolub2wins
AwayKern8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKern leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHolub50%2 of 4
AwayKern100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Holub4Kern6n = 10Kern took 6 of 10
S2Holub4Kern6n = 10Kern took 6 of 10
S3Holub3Kern7n = 10Kern took 7 of 10
S4Holub1Kern4n = 5Kern took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricHolubKernH − KBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.138.2−3.1per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHolubKernBasisWin rate · lifetime150 / 319 vs 135 / 25747%52.5%150 / 319 vs 135 / 257Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KernHolub 2.10/Kern 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.6%
Kern · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Holub won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 16:30M. Holub—111112842L. Kern—941411113
LAug 19 · 18:00M. Holub—1081161L. Kern—12117113
LAug 11 · 21:30M. Holub—7119121L. Kern—11911143
LAug 11 · 18:00M. Holub—61260L. Kern—1114113
LAug 8 · 16:30M. Holub—8880L. Kern—1111113
LAug 7 · 17:00M. Holub—111189122L. Kern—741111143
LAug 7 · 15:00M. Holub—5890L. Kern—1111113
WJul 29 · 16:30M. Holub—1311113L. Kern—11870
WJul 24 · 19:30M. Holub—111111113L. Kern—913761
LJul 24 · 15:30M. Holub—121090L. Kern—1412113
M. Holub10
LSep 9 · 16:30L. Kern1.50941411113M. Holub2.50111112842WSep 9 · 15:30M. Holub2.10991114113R. Hudeczek1.67111161292WSep 9 · 14:30D. Szotek1.611271191M. Holub2.2014119113LSep 7 · 21:00R. Hudeczek1.67113138113M. Holub2.10711111172LSep 7 · 20:30M. Holub2.007580M. Chalupa1.731111113LSep 7 · 19:00M. Holub2.20141341162R. Hudeczek1.611611114113LSep 7 · 18:00D. Szotek1.614111311113M. Holub2.2011615842LSep 3 · 21:00M. Holub1.839720T. Kypr1.831111113LSep 3 · 20:00M. Holub2.005470M. Chalupa1.731111113WSep 3 · 19:30T. Kypr1.80410110M. Holub1.911112133
L. Kern10
WSep 9 · 16:30L. Kern1.50941411113M. Holub2.50111112842LSep 9 · 15:00L. Kern1.6711111071D. Szotek2.1013712113WSep 9 · 14:00R. Hudeczek1.83871181L. Kern1.8311118113WSep 4 · 21:00L. Kern1.4071112113Z. Pagac2.751171011LSep 4 · 20:00L. Kern1.91511991M. Chalupa1.8011911113WSep 4 · 19:30Z. Pagac3.251112831L. Kern1.3371411113LSep 4 · 18:00L. Kern1.7311790R. Hudeczek2.001311113LSep 4 · 17:05L. Kern2.00511111092M. Chalupa1.73112512113WSep 4 · 16:00L. Kern1.91251111133M. Chalupa1.80111198112LSep 4 · 15:30R. Hudeczek2.0012911113L. Kern1.731011731
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