TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13087564
Played Sep 7Finished
Marek Holub
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711511811––––
Michal Chalupa
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:09 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Chalupa to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMarek Holub above · Michal Chalupa below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 53 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Michal Chalupa at 54.0%
53 points played in total.
H2H Marek Holub 37–44 Michal Chalupa Marek Holub has won 37 of their 81 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:09What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Chalupa
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
37-44 in 81
Chalupa
Correct
gap of 7 in 81, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Holub 1595 vs Chalupa 1680
Chalupa
Correct
both rated, 85 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Holub 20% vs Chalupa 60%
Chalupa
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Holub 40% vs Chalupa 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Holub -4 · Chalupa +2
Holub
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Chalupa) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holub form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHolub 2.00 / Chalupa 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 55%
Edge (Chalupa)+0.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13087564
Holub2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 75 of 173
Down 0–1, comes back19% 18 of 93
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 57
Chalupa1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite55% won 129 of 235
Up 2–0, closes it91% 48 of 53
Up 1–0, closes it75% 88 of 118
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHolub3wins
AwayChalupa7wins
6 of 10 to a deciderChalupa leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHolub75%3 of 4
AwayChalupa100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Holub4Chalupa6n = 10Chalupa took 6 of 10
S2Holub1Chalupa9n = 10Chalupa took 9 of 10
S3Holub6Chalupa4n = 10Holub took 6 of 10
S4Holub3Chalupa5n = 8Chalupa took 5 of 8
S5Holub3Chalupa3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricHolubChalupaH − CBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.043.5−2.5per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHolubChalupaBasisWin rate · lifetime148 / 314 vs 374 / 71247.1%52.5%148 / 314 vs 374 / 712Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.939.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChalupaHolub 2.00/Chalupa 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.5%
Chalupa · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Chalupa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 3 · 20:00M. Holub—5470M. Chalupa—1111113
WSep 2 · 21:30M. Holub—118119113M. Chalupa—61121172
LSep 2 · 18:30M. Holub—810111172M. Chalupa—111268113
LSep 1 · 21:28M. Holub—12991182M. Chalupa—1011117113
WSep 1 · 20:00M. Holub—159117113M. Chalupa—131151182
LAug 31 · 15:30M. Holub—91070M. Chalupa—1112113
LAug 25 · 14:30M. Holub—10121081M. Chalupa—121012113
LAug 24 · 12:30M. Holub—751111102M. Chalupa—111189123
WAug 19 · 21:00M. Holub—119119113M. Chalupa—81171182
LAug 19 · 19:00M. Holub—8101241M. Chalupa—111210113
M. Holub10
LSep 7 · 21:00R. Hudeczek1.67113138113M. Holub2.10711111172LSep 7 · 19:00M. Holub2.20141341162R. Hudeczek1.611611114113LSep 7 · 18:00D. Szotek1.614111311113M. Holub2.2011615842LSep 3 · 21:00M. Holub1.839720T. Kypr1.831111113LSep 3 · 20:00M. Holub2.005470M. Chalupa1.731111113WSep 3 · 19:30T. Kypr1.80410110M. Holub1.911112133LSep 3 · 18:00M. Holub1.83712691Z. Pagac1.83111011113WSep 2 · 21:30M. Holub1.91118119113M. Chalupa1.8061121172WSep 2 · 20:30R. Hudeczek1.61911321M. Holub2.2011711113WSep 2 · 19:30M. Holub2.25116911113R. Urbaniec1.5781111412
M. Chalupa10
WSep 7 · 19:30M. Chalupa1.83111111133D. Szotek1.839135111WSep 7 · 18:30R. Hudeczek1.80861171M. Chalupa1.9111118113LSep 4 · 21:30R. Hudeczek1.731110117113M. Chalupa2.0081291142WSep 4 · 20:00L. Kern1.91511991M. Chalupa1.8011911113LSep 4 · 19:00R. Hudeczek1.80711115113M. Chalupa1.9111581132WSep 4 · 18:30M. Chalupa1.5711811113Z. Pagac2.25911481WSep 4 · 17:05L. Kern2.00511111092M. Chalupa1.73112512113LSep 4 · 16:00L. Kern1.91251111133M. Chalupa1.80111198112WSep 3 · 20:00M. Holub2.005470M. Chalupa1.731111113LSep 2 · 21:30M. Holub1.91118119113M. Chalupa1.8061121172
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M. Chalupa
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