TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13087311
Played Sep 7Finished
David Szotek
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
4111161315118114
Marek Holub
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:29 and never touched — 54.2% is still 54.2%
Graded at full timeDavid Szotek to win
54.2%
54.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDavid Szotek above · Marek Holub below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 13-15
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 94 set 5, 11-4 — our read held David Szotek at 54.2%
94 points played in total.
H2H David Szotek 3–2 Marek Holub Marek Holub has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:29What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Szotek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Szotek 1644 vs Holub 1622
Szotek
Correct
both rated, 22 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Szotek 40% vs Holub 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Szotek 50% vs Holub 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Szotek -2 · Holub -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Szotek) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Szotek form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSzotek 1.61 / Holub 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Szotek)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13087311
Szotek1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite51% won 39 of 76
Up 2–0, closes it100% 22 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it75% 30 of 40
Holub2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 75 of 173
Down 0–1, comes back19% 18 of 93
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 57
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeSzotek3wins
AwayHolub2wins
2 of 5 to a deciderSzotek leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSzotek75%3 of 4
AwayHolubn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Szotek4Holub1n = 5Szotek took 4 of 5
S2Szotek3Holub2n = 5Szotek took 3 of 5
S3Szotek2Holub3n = 5Holub took 3 of 5
S4Szotek1Holub2n = 3Holub took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricSzotekHolubS − HBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set41+3of 5Avg pointsper match37.237.8−0.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSzotekHolubBasisWin rate · lifetime167 / 359 vs 148 / 31246.5%47.4%167 / 359 vs 148 / 312Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SzotekSzotek 1.61/Holub 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.1%
Szotek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Szotek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LAug 25 · 16:00D. Szotek—11511682M. Holub—911911113
WAug 24 · 10:30D. Szotek—1111113M. Holub—5990
LAug 20 · 16:59D. Szotek—7660M. Holub—1111113
WAug 20 · 14:30D. Szotek—111189113M. Holub—88111182
WAug 19 · 20:30D. Szotek—111110113M. Holub—691291
D. Szotek10
LSep 7 · 19:30M. Chalupa1.83111111133D. Szotek1.839135111LAug 31 · 13:00D. Szotek1.6761181462M. Chalupa2.101191112113LAug 31 · 12:30F. Nadymacek1.5011117113D. Szotek2.50581181WAug 31 · 11:30D. Szotek1.911111123M. Chalupa1.8098100LAug 31 · 10:30L. Kern1.61741412113D. Szotek2.201111121092WAug 25 · 21:28D. Szotek1.831111113M. Chalupa1.834660LAug 25 · 20:30M. Chalupa1.7311101111113D. Szotek2.0081213772WAug 25 · 19:30D. Szotek1.611111113R. Hudeczek2.207860WAug 25 · 18:30Z. Pagac1.916690D. Szotek1.801111113WAug 25 · 17:30M. Chalupa1.70119119112D. Szotek2.02811611133
M. Holub10
LSep 7 · 19:00M. Holub2.20141341162R. Hudeczek1.611611114113LSep 3 · 21:00M. Holub1.839720T. Kypr1.831111113LSep 3 · 20:00M. Holub2.005470M. Chalupa1.731111113WSep 3 · 19:30T. Kypr1.80410110M. Holub1.911112133LSep 3 · 18:00M. Holub1.83712691Z. Pagac1.83111011113WSep 2 · 21:30M. Holub1.91118119113M. Chalupa1.8061121172WSep 2 · 20:30R. Hudeczek1.61911321M. Holub2.2011711113WSep 2 · 19:30M. Holub2.25116911113R. Urbaniec1.5781111412LSep 2 · 18:30M. Chalupa1.73111268113M. Holub2.00810111172LSep 1 · 21:28M. Holub2.0012991182M. Chalupa1.731011117113
Upcoming Matches
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M. Holub
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