TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13047768
Played Aug 31Finished
Lukas Kern
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
71141114121210119
David Szotek
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:17 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDavid Szotek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingLukas Kern above · David Szotek below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 101 set 5, 11-9 — our read held David Szotek at 54.0%
101 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Kern 4–4 David Szotek Dead even across their 8 meetings.
Last 8 · 4–4Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:17What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kern
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-4 in 8
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kern 1713 vs Szotek 1654
Kern
Correct
both rated, 59 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kern 60% vs Szotek 80%
Szotek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kern 80% vs Szotek 60%
Kern
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kern +1 · Szotek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Kern) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Szotek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKern 1.61 / Szotek 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 42%
Edge (Kern)+0.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13047768
Kern1.61
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 72 of 115
Up 2–0, closes it95% 36 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it87% 54 of 62
Szotek2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 46 of 121
Down 0–1, comes back24% 17 of 70
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeKern4wins
AwaySzotek4wins
Level at 4–4.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKern66.7%4 of 6
AwaySzotekn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kern6Szotek2n = 8Kern took 6 of 8
S2Kern4Szotek4n = 8split evenly
S3Kern4Szotek4n = 8split evenly
S4Kern2Szotek4n = 6Szotek took 4 of 6
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home225%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away450%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricKernSzotekK − SBasisWins440in 8 meetingsFirst set62+4of 8Avg pointsper match36.634.1+2.5per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKernSzotekBasisWin rate · lifetime126 / 234 vs 166 / 35553.9%46.8%126 / 234 vs 166 / 355Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KernKern 1.61/Szotek 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.5%
Kern · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kern won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WAug 19 · 21:30L. Kern—1111113D. Szotek—5760
WAug 19 · 19:30L. Kern—11511113D. Szotek—211851
WAug 16 · 13:29L. Kern—1311113D. Szotek—11450
LAug 16 · 10:00L. Kern—971191D. Szotek—11117113
LAug 13 · 20:00L. Kern—1112841D. Szotek—131011113
LAug 11 · 16:00L. Kern—11101161D. Szotek—91213113
WJul 30 · 20:58L. Kern—11119113D. Szotek—981191
LJul 30 · 18:00L. Kern—1112761D. Szotek—61411113
L. Kern10
WSep 4 · 21:00L. Kern1.4071112113Z. Pagac2.751171011LSep 4 · 20:00L. Kern1.91511991M. Chalupa1.8011911113WSep 4 · 19:30Z. Pagac3.251112831L. Kern1.3371411113LSep 4 · 18:00L. Kern1.7311790R. Hudeczek2.001311113LSep 4 · 17:05L. Kern2.00511111092M. Chalupa1.73112512113WSep 4 · 16:00L. Kern1.91251111133M. Chalupa1.80111198112LSep 4 · 15:30R. Hudeczek2.0012911113L. Kern1.731011731WSep 4 · 14:00L. Kern1.33711118113Z. Pagac3.2511981192WSep 1 · 20:58R. Urbaniec1.4482100L. Kern2.631111123LSep 1 · 20:30V. Burdik1.5311411113L. Kern2.38911571
D. Szotek10
LAug 31 · 13:00D. Szotek1.6761181462M. Chalupa2.101191112113LAug 31 · 12:30F. Nadymacek1.5011117113D. Szotek2.50581181WAug 31 · 11:30D. Szotek1.911111123M. Chalupa1.8098100WAug 25 · 21:28D. Szotek1.831111113M. Chalupa1.834660LAug 25 · 20:30M. Chalupa1.7311101111113D. Szotek2.0081213772WAug 25 · 19:30D. Szotek1.611111113R. Hudeczek2.207860WAug 25 · 18:30Z. Pagac1.916690D. Szotek1.801111113WAug 25 · 17:30M. Chalupa1.70119119112D. Szotek2.02811611133LAug 25 · 16:00D. Szotek1.5311511682M. Holub2.38911911113WAug 25 · 15:30M. Chalupa1.73512101382D. Szotek2.0011101211113
Upcoming Matches
L. Kern
Nothing scheduled
D. Szotek
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