TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13001843
Played Aug 25Finished
Michal Chalupa
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
511121010121311811
David Szotek
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:29 and never touched — 56.0% is still 56.0%
Graded at full timeDavid Szotek to win
56.0%
56.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Chalupa above · David Szotek below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 103 set 5, 8-11 — our read held David Szotek at 56.0%
103 points played in total.
H2H Michal Chalupa 11–11 David Szotek Dead even across their 22 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:29What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Chalupa
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-11 in 22
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chalupa 1553 vs Szotek 1608
Szotek
Correct
both rated, 55 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chalupa 20% vs Szotek 60%
Szotek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chalupa 50% vs Szotek 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chalupa +1 · Szotek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Chalupa) · live re-read · sealed at 44% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chalupa form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChalupa 1.73 / Szotek 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Chalupa)+1.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13001843
Chalupa1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite53% won 118 of 224
Up 2–0, closes it91% 42 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it72% 75 of 104
Szotek2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 46 of 120
Down 0–1, comes back25% 17 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChalupa5wins
AwaySzotek5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChalupa25%1 of 4
AwaySzotek33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chalupa4Szotek6n = 10Szotek took 6 of 10
S2Chalupa6Szotek4n = 10Chalupa took 6 of 10
S3Chalupa6Szotek4n = 10Chalupa took 6 of 10
S4Chalupa7Szotek3n = 10Chalupa took 7 of 10
S5Chalupa1Szotek4n = 5Szotek took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricChalupaSzotekC − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match42.139.2+2.9per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChalupaSzotekBasisWin rate · lifetime352 / 679 vs 163 / 35651.8%45.8%352 / 679 vs 163 / 356Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.237.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChalupaChalupa 1.73/Szotek 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.7%
Chalupa · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Szotek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 24 · 14:30M. Chalupa—111111682D. Szotek—713511113
WAug 24 · 13:28M. Chalupa—51111113D. Szotek—118881
LAug 24 · 11:00M. Chalupa—11811862D. Szotek—711711113
LAug 21 · 18:00M. Chalupa—411681D. Szotek—11911103
LAug 19 · 18:30M. Chalupa—121191162D. Szotek—146114113
WAug 19 · 15:00M. Chalupa—111011113D. Szotek—512991
WAug 13 · 19:00M. Chalupa—711911113D. Szotek—11211252
WAug 11 · 17:30M. Chalupa—41111113D. Szotek—117871
LAug 11 · 15:30M. Chalupa—11791152D. Szotek—711114113
WAug 10 · 14:00M. Chalupa—81211113D. Szotek—1110481
M. Chalupa10
LSep 4 · 21:30R. Hudeczek1.731110117113M. Chalupa2.0081291142WSep 4 · 20:00L. Kern1.91511991M. Chalupa1.8011911113LSep 4 · 19:00R. Hudeczek1.80711115113M. Chalupa1.9111581132WSep 4 · 18:30M. Chalupa1.5711811113Z. Pagac2.25911481WSep 4 · 17:05L. Kern2.00511111092M. Chalupa1.73112512113LSep 4 · 16:00L. Kern1.91251111133M. Chalupa1.80111198112LSep 4 · 15:00Z. Pagac2.2511712113M. Chalupa1.574111091LSep 4 · 14:30M. Chalupa1.91451171R. Hudeczek1.8011119113WSep 3 · 21:30M. Chalupa1.52119114113Z. Pagac2.3561181162WSep 3 · 20:00M. Holub2.005470M. Chalupa1.731111113
D. Szotek10
LAug 31 · 13:00D. Szotek1.6761181462M. Chalupa2.101191112113LAug 31 · 12:30F. Nadymacek1.5011117113D. Szotek2.50581181WAug 31 · 11:30D. Szotek1.911111123M. Chalupa1.8098100LAug 31 · 10:30L. Kern1.61741412113D. Szotek2.201111121092WAug 25 · 21:28D. Szotek1.831111113M. Chalupa1.834660LAug 25 · 20:30M. Chalupa1.7311101111113D. Szotek2.0081213772WAug 25 · 19:30D. Szotek1.611111113R. Hudeczek2.207860WAug 25 · 18:30Z. Pagac1.916690D. Szotek1.801111113WAug 25 · 17:30M. Chalupa1.70119119112D. Szotek2.02811611133LAug 25 · 16:00D. Szotek1.5311511682M. Holub2.38911911113
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