TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13052741
Played Aug 31Finished
David Szotek
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
6111198111412611
Michal Chalupa
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:55 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDavid Szotek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingDavid Szotek above · Michal Chalupa below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 14-12
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 99 set 5, 6-11 — our read held David Szotek at 54.0%
99 points played in total.
H2H David Szotek 15–13 Michal Chalupa Michal Chalupa has won 13 of their 28 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:55What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Szotek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-13 in 28
Szotek
Wrong
gap of 2 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Szotek 1644 vs Chalupa 1600
Szotek
Wrong
both rated, 44 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Szotek 40% vs Chalupa 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Szotek 60% vs Chalupa 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Szotek -1 · Chalupa -3
Chalupa
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Szotek) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Szotek form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSzotek 1.67 / Chalupa 2.10
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Szotek)-1.2pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13052741
Szotek1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite51% won 40 of 79
Up 2–0, closes it96% 23 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it74% 31 of 42
Chalupa2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog47% won 97 of 208
Down 0–1, comes back28% 35 of 124
Down 0–2, comes back9% 6 of 66
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSzotek7wins
AwayChalupa3wins
6 of 10 to a deciderSzotek leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSzotek80%4 of 5
AwayChalupa40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Szotek5Chalupa5n = 10split evenly
S2Szotek7Chalupa3n = 10Szotek took 7 of 10
S3Szotek5Chalupa5n = 10split evenly
S4Szotek5Chalupa3n = 8Szotek took 5 of 8
S5Szotek4Chalupa2n = 6Szotek took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSzotekChalupaS − CBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match43.340.8+2.5per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSzotekChalupaBasisWin rate · lifetime167 / 359 vs 363 / 69446.5%52.3%167 / 359 vs 363 / 694Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.239.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SzotekSzotek 1.67/Chalupa 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.6%
Szotek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Chalupa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 31 · 13:00D. Szotek—61181462M. Chalupa—1191112113
WAug 31 · 11:30D. Szotek—1111123M. Chalupa—98100
WAug 25 · 21:28D. Szotek—1111113M. Chalupa—4660
LAug 25 · 20:30D. Szotek—81213772M. Chalupa—11101111113
WAug 25 · 17:30D. Szotek—811611133M. Chalupa—119119112
WAug 25 · 15:30D. Szotek—11101211113M. Chalupa—512101382
WAug 24 · 14:30D. Szotek—713511113M. Chalupa—111111682
LAug 24 · 13:28D. Szotek—118881M. Chalupa—51111113
WAug 24 · 11:00D. Szotek—711711113M. Chalupa—11811862
WAug 21 · 18:00D. Szotek—11911103M. Chalupa—411681
D. Szotek10
LAug 31 · 12:30F. Nadymacek1.5011117113D. Szotek2.50581181WAug 31 · 11:30D. Szotek1.911111123M. Chalupa1.8098100LAug 31 · 10:30L. Kern1.61741412113D. Szotek2.201111121092WAug 25 · 21:28D. Szotek1.831111113M. Chalupa1.834660LAug 25 · 20:30M. Chalupa1.7311101111113D. Szotek2.0081213772WAug 25 · 19:30D. Szotek1.611111113R. Hudeczek2.207860WAug 25 · 18:30Z. Pagac1.916690D. Szotek1.801111113WAug 25 · 17:30M. Chalupa1.70119119112D. Szotek2.02811611133LAug 25 · 16:00D. Szotek1.5311511682M. Holub2.38911911113WAug 25 · 15:30M. Chalupa1.73512101382D. Szotek2.0011101211113
M. Chalupa10
LSep 4 · 21:30R. Hudeczek1.731110117113M. Chalupa2.0081291142WSep 4 · 20:00L. Kern1.91511991M. Chalupa1.8011911113LSep 4 · 19:00R. Hudeczek1.80711115113M. Chalupa1.9111581132WSep 4 · 18:30M. Chalupa1.5711811113Z. Pagac2.25911481WSep 4 · 17:05L. Kern2.00511111092M. Chalupa1.73112512113LAug 31 · 11:30D. Szotek1.911111123M. Chalupa1.8098100LAug 25 · 21:28D. Szotek1.831111113M. Chalupa1.834660WAug 25 · 20:30M. Chalupa1.7311101111113D. Szotek2.0081213772LAug 25 · 17:30M. Chalupa1.70119119112D. Szotek2.02811611133LAug 25 · 15:30M. Chalupa1.73512101382D. Szotek2.0011101211113
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